1. First things first…
Texas Tech’s loss to Iowa State was the Bizarro version of the team’s win over Oklahoma State earlier this month.
The Red Raiders raced out to a 20-0 lead over the Cowboys before allowing a touchdown right before halftime. The Pokes woke up a bit in the second half and made it just enough of a game to make Texas Tech slightly uncomfortable. In the end, the Red Raiders’ 10-point margin of victory didn't fully represent how lopsided that game felt.
The same was all true for the Cyclones on Saturday, with Matt Campbell’s team filling the victor’s role and Matt Wells’ team taking the place of the Fighting Mike Gundys.
Four drives into the game, Iowa State had chewed up 290 yards on 27 plays and scored 20 points. The only black marks for the visiting team at that point were wholly self-inflicted: a pair of kicking miscues and a pass interference penalty that forced ISU to settle for a field goal attempt. The Red Raider offense, meanwhile, totaled 65 yards and four punts on 19 plays.
For as frustrating as it was to watch on Saturday, Texas Tech’s struggles on offense should not have come as much of a surprise. For one, the Red Raiders entered the weekend having scored 14, 16, 45 and 20* points in its four games against Power Five opponents this season. Secondly, Iowa State’s defense has Old Yeller’d Texas Tech’s offense in every matchup since Campbell took over. Kliff Kingsbury and Patrick Mahomes managed 10 points against the Cyclones in 2016. The offense didn’t fare any better under Nic Shimonek (13 points) in 2017 or Alan Bowman (17 points#) in 2018. Heck, if you’re comparing it to the past three meetings of this suddenly lopsided series, Saturday’s 24-point performance actually represented improvement. How gross is that?
What was surprising was how ineffective and out-of-character the defense was against the Cyclones. Iowa State averaged 10.3 yards per play, by far its best performance against a Big 12 opponent in at least the last 20 years. Giving up that kind of number to Jalen Hurts, Trey Sermon, CeeDee Lamb and Oklahoma in Norman – the Sooners had 646 yards on 63 snaps – is one thing. Giving up 10.3 yards per play to Brock Purdy, Breese Hall, Charlie Kolar and Iowa State in Lubbock is hard to understand.
* Texas Tech scored 20 points in regulation against Baylor.
# The Red Raiders scored on both special teams and defense against Iowa State in 2018.
2. Two questions heading into Week 9
… How much of Texas Tech’s woeful offensive statistical profile is a result of who it has played, and how much of it is simply an accurate reflection of what that unit is this season? The Red Raiders have now played the three best defenses in the Big 12. Oklahoma, Iowa State and Baylor are allowing 18.2, 20.6 and 22.5 points per game respectively to Power Five opponents, and their defensive showings against Texas Tech largely fall in line with how they have performed all season. The Red Raider offense, meanwhile, is averaging 23.8 points per four-quarter game against Power Five opponents this season, which ranks eighth in the Big 12 ahead of West Virginia (23.2) and Kansas State (20.0). When looking only at games against Power Five opponents, Texas Tech has averaged the third-fewest yards per play (5.67), averaged the third-fewest explosive plays per game (4.4), scored the second-fewest touchdowns (14) and converted third downs at the second-worst rate (31.65 percent) among all Big 12 teams. It will be interesting to see if those numbers begin to tick up now that the Red Raiders will be facing significantly less impressive defensive groups.
… Can the Red Raiders win three of their last five? That’s what is going to take for the team to reach the postseason. No game left on the schedule looks completely out of reach, but there also isn’t a game that appears to be a sure-fire, write-it-in-pen victory. History isn’t on the team’s side, as Texas Tech hasn’t closed out a season by winning three of its last five Big 12 games since 2009.
3. Three notable stats
… The Red Raiders have scored just 16 points off their last nine turnovers, including the empty drive following Brock Purdy’s second-half interception on Saturday.
… Jett Duffey’s 52 passing attempts without an interception were the most for a Texas Tech quarterback against a Big 12 team since Seth Doege completed 40-of-55 passes for 381 yards and two scores against Texas on Nov. 5, 2011. Duffey's 4.6 yards per attempt average was the lowest by a Red Raider signal caller since Nic Shimonek threw for just 137 yards on 33 attempts against TCU in 2017.
… Texas Tech’s 4.94 yards per rush average Saturday is the fourth-highest allowed by Iowa State in Big 12 play since the beginning of the 2017 season. Kansas State averaged 5.21 yards per tote last November, while TCU (5.06) and Oklahoma (5.43) surpassed that mark in 2017. The Cyclones won all four of those games.
4. Four things that stand out after diving through the PFF numbers
… Duffey attempted 52 passes against Iowa State on Saturday, and nearly half (25) of them were throws behind the line of scrimmage. He was 23-of-25 on passes behind the line for 98 yards. Duffey was 13-of-16 for 72 yards and a touchdown on passes 10-yards and in, and 4-of-8 for 69 yards on passes that went between 10 and 20 yards downfield. Duffey attempted just two passes deeper than 20 yards, both incompletions.
… Texas Tech’s offensive line rebounded from a poor performance in Waco. The Red Raiders allowed just one sack and 10 pressures, compared to the five sacks and 17 pressures it gave up to Baylor. Travis Bruffy (84.3), Dawson Deaton (83.0), Will Farrar (82.5) and Madison Akamnonu (82.0) earned their highest pass blocking grades of the season against the Cyclones.
… Donta Thompson (414) and Travis Koontz (166) have combined to play 580 of the 583 offensive snaps that PFF has logged for Texas Tech this season. Per PFF, Thompson has 153 block snaps (run or pass) and 259 snaps where he has been an option in the passing game. The only Red Raider with more pass snaps is T.J. Vasher (263). Erik Ezukanma is the next-closest receiver with 184. Vasher has caught 35 passes for 440 yards and five touchdowns, Ezukanma has 22 catches for 292 yards and a score and Thompson has 15 receptions for 148 yards and no touchdowns. The ‘why’ is hard to pin down – is Thompson not getting open, is he just not getting targeted, etc. – but the lack of production at that position is impossible to ignore.
… For the season, Kansas has the Big 12’s worst overall defense grade (62.5), run defense grade (52.3), and pass rush grade (62.5). The Jayhawks have the second-best tackling grade (74.8) in the Big 12 and the second-best run game grade (89.6).
5. Five observations from Week 8
… The Big 12 result that surprised me the most this weekend was Baylor blowing out Oklahoma State in Stillwater. The Pokes were coming off a bye week, while the Bears looked very beatable last weekend against Texas Tech. Don’t look now, but Mike Gundy is 4-9 in the Big 12 since Mason Rudolph graduated. The Cowboys still have to play Iowa State (next week in Ames) and Oklahoma, so it’s looking like a second-consecutive season in the bottom half of the Big 12 for The Mullet.
… The Texas defense is really, really bad. The stranglehold that the Longhorns seemed to have on the second spot in the Big 12 title game has loosened considerably over the last two weeks.
… TCU is officially on Implosion Watch after its loss to Kansas State over the weekend. The Horned Frogs are easily the most disappointing team in the Big 12 this season.
… Tua Tagovailoa’s high-ankle sprain has opened the door for Joe Burrow to win the Heisman Trophy.
… If I had a vote, here’s how I’d rank the top five teams in the country: 1. LSU, 2. Ohio State, 3. Oklahoma, 4. Alabama, 5. Clemson.
