In total rebounds (Big 12 stats only), Tech is 9th in offensive rebounds per game, and 5th in defensive rebounds per game. Our rebounding margin is 7th best in the conference.
That doesn't seem right... why do opposing coaches mention how difficult Tech is to box out? The answer is that total rebounds is mostly a meaningless stat. If you make all your shots, you won't have a chance for many offensive rebounds. And if the other team misses all their shots, there will be an inflated number of defensive rebounds. Total rebounds or rebounds per game is largely based on the amount of possessions and missed shots there are, both completely irrelevant to a team's ability to rebound.
Luckily, we have per/possession data from Kenpom to help with this. He uses a formula to rank teams based on how likely a particular team is to grab an offensive rebound (OR%) or a defensive rebound (OR% allowed) per missed shot.
It's a much better indicator of a team's rebounding ability.
Below is each Big 12 team's OR % allowed in conference games only. Tech is dead last, meaning we're giving up the most offensive rebounds per missed shot through 4 conference games.
BU: 25.0% (+16.5)
TCU: 25.5% (+1.7)
OSU: 26.2% (-1.4)
ISU: 27.9% (-.4)
WVU: 28.2% (+13.3)
OU: 28.7% (-9.9)
KU: 30.6% (-.7)
UT: 32.5% (-6.9)
KSU: 35.1% (-8)
TTU: 36.0% (-2.9)
The number in parentheses is the difference between each team's OR% and OR% allowed. So while Tech has the highest (i.e., the worst) OR% allowed in the Big 12, the differential between that number and our own OR% is only 7th worst (Tech has the 3rd best OR%, despite having the 9th fewest offensive rebounds.. go figure).
However, Kenpom's percentages don't account for Tech's opponents' ability to rebound. After all, a lot of Tech's missed shots occurred against BU, maybe the best rebounding team in the country. Conversely, Tech forced WVU to miss a lot of shots, thus allowing one of the best offensive rebounding teams more opportunities for second chance points.
Using my own method to adjust Kenpom numbers for each teams' opponents' rebounding ability, Tech is the 3rd best offensive rebounding team & the 8th best defensive rebounding team. Overall, the net differential between those adjusted numbers places Tech as the 5th best rebounding team in the conference, with a very, very thin margin between Tech and the 3rd/4th ranked teams. In other words, BU & WVU are the only teams that have clearly rebounded better than Tech, relative to their first 4 opponents.
Here are my adjusted Big 12 rebounding rankings:
Tier 1: Baylor - WVU
Tier 2: ISU - KU - TTU - TCU
Tier 3: OSU - UT
Tier 4: OU - KSU
I think there's a bit of a misconception among fans that Tech's a bad rebounding team because of our lack of post players. While that's certainly been a factor in our two losses, it does not mean we're a bad rebounding team.
IMO, Tech's "small" lineups have a tendency to force our opponents to play small with us, which creates exploitable rebounding mismatches, primarily on the offensive glass. I bet Tech wins more games this year on the offensive glass than we lose on the defensive glass.
Tech's also played half of its conference games without one of our best rebounders (Shannon). It will be interesting to see where Tech ranks after 18 rounds of Big 12 games.
That doesn't seem right... why do opposing coaches mention how difficult Tech is to box out? The answer is that total rebounds is mostly a meaningless stat. If you make all your shots, you won't have a chance for many offensive rebounds. And if the other team misses all their shots, there will be an inflated number of defensive rebounds. Total rebounds or rebounds per game is largely based on the amount of possessions and missed shots there are, both completely irrelevant to a team's ability to rebound.
Luckily, we have per/possession data from Kenpom to help with this. He uses a formula to rank teams based on how likely a particular team is to grab an offensive rebound (OR%) or a defensive rebound (OR% allowed) per missed shot.
It's a much better indicator of a team's rebounding ability.
Below is each Big 12 team's OR % allowed in conference games only. Tech is dead last, meaning we're giving up the most offensive rebounds per missed shot through 4 conference games.
BU: 25.0% (+16.5)
TCU: 25.5% (+1.7)
OSU: 26.2% (-1.4)
ISU: 27.9% (-.4)
WVU: 28.2% (+13.3)
OU: 28.7% (-9.9)
KU: 30.6% (-.7)
UT: 32.5% (-6.9)
KSU: 35.1% (-8)
TTU: 36.0% (-2.9)
The number in parentheses is the difference between each team's OR% and OR% allowed. So while Tech has the highest (i.e., the worst) OR% allowed in the Big 12, the differential between that number and our own OR% is only 7th worst (Tech has the 3rd best OR%, despite having the 9th fewest offensive rebounds.. go figure).
However, Kenpom's percentages don't account for Tech's opponents' ability to rebound. After all, a lot of Tech's missed shots occurred against BU, maybe the best rebounding team in the country. Conversely, Tech forced WVU to miss a lot of shots, thus allowing one of the best offensive rebounding teams more opportunities for second chance points.
Using my own method to adjust Kenpom numbers for each teams' opponents' rebounding ability, Tech is the 3rd best offensive rebounding team & the 8th best defensive rebounding team. Overall, the net differential between those adjusted numbers places Tech as the 5th best rebounding team in the conference, with a very, very thin margin between Tech and the 3rd/4th ranked teams. In other words, BU & WVU are the only teams that have clearly rebounded better than Tech, relative to their first 4 opponents.
Here are my adjusted Big 12 rebounding rankings:
Tier 1: Baylor - WVU
Tier 2: ISU - KU - TTU - TCU
Tier 3: OSU - UT
Tier 4: OU - KSU
I think there's a bit of a misconception among fans that Tech's a bad rebounding team because of our lack of post players. While that's certainly been a factor in our two losses, it does not mean we're a bad rebounding team.
IMO, Tech's "small" lineups have a tendency to force our opponents to play small with us, which creates exploitable rebounding mismatches, primarily on the offensive glass. I bet Tech wins more games this year on the offensive glass than we lose on the defensive glass.
Tech's also played half of its conference games without one of our best rebounders (Shannon). It will be interesting to see where Tech ranks after 18 rounds of Big 12 games.
