Sorry to create a new thread on this specific issue (I'm really not THAT sorry).
Admittedly, from my seat at the game, I didn't like the first decision to go for 2. And in my post-game drunken stupor, the benefit of hindsight did not make me feel any better about the decision.
That said, for an NFL team at least, the decision to go for 2 when we did appears to have been the right decision (see this 538 article https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/when-to-go-for-2-for-real/.. which I screen shot below).
Look at -5 for the image above. Each column represents a quarter and the time left in the game. Orange represents the increase in expected win % by going for 2; purple is the increase in win % if you go for 1 (expected win numbers come from this ESPN guy, https://espnpressroom.com/us/bios/brian-burke/).
Based on the above data (which should be noted only considers past NFL games), Wells made the right decision.
Please send me any articles or resources that indicates to the contrary, particularly if it uses data from the CFB realm. Personally, this 538 article does make me feel a lot better about the decision. Now if only we would've coached the Kansas game "by the analytics book" as well....
Admittedly, from my seat at the game, I didn't like the first decision to go for 2. And in my post-game drunken stupor, the benefit of hindsight did not make me feel any better about the decision.
That said, for an NFL team at least, the decision to go for 2 when we did appears to have been the right decision (see this 538 article https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/when-to-go-for-2-for-real/.. which I screen shot below).
Look at -5 for the image above. Each column represents a quarter and the time left in the game. Orange represents the increase in expected win % by going for 2; purple is the increase in win % if you go for 1 (expected win numbers come from this ESPN guy, https://espnpressroom.com/us/bios/brian-burke/).
Based on the above data (which should be noted only considers past NFL games), Wells made the right decision.
Please send me any articles or resources that indicates to the contrary, particularly if it uses data from the CFB realm. Personally, this 538 article does make me feel a lot better about the decision. Now if only we would've coached the Kansas game "by the analytics book" as well....
