If I would have known the defense held Kansas State to 31, I would have been pretty confident in a Tech victory. Although I would have never thought the Red Raiders would be held scoreless in the first half and only score 21.
And the weird part in saying that is that I do not think the Tech defense played well, or even well enough to win, considering the in-game factors. Kansas State lost Skylar Thompson early, they really only have one true weapon (Deuce Vaughn), and it was clear they did not trust the backup.
I have the same feeling about the defense that I do the offense, they can do their job at any point throughout the game... except when the team needs them to. If the defense gets one stop against Texas and Kansas State, the Red Raiders are 3-0. Instead, the defense has given up back breaking final drives in both Big 12 games, and the team is 1-2.
I think win probability metrics get way too much play on Twitter and Sport Center, but I do find them interesting if taken in the proper context. According to CollegeFootballData.com, Texas Tech had nearly a 75% chance to win Saturday's game right before the play where Kansas State's tight end tight-roped the sideline down to the goal line. After everything that happened, after being held scoreless in the first half, after giving up a blocked punt, Texas Tech had a 75% to win in the fourth quarter. All the defense had to do was make Kansas State sustain a long drive, and they could not do it.
Here is a Defensive Havoc Chart from CollegeFootballData.com.
Havoc refers to the percentage of plays in with the defense recorded a TFL, forced a fumble, intercepted a pass or broke up a pass.
Front Seven Havoc is the percentage of plays in which the defense forced a fumble or a TFL.
DB Havoc is the percentage of plays in which the defense defended or intercepted a pass.
The chart speaks for itself, but you can see, despite the Front Seven being average, the DBs were so bad it dragged the total down to below average. Granted, there were not just an abundance of chances for the DBs to create havoc, but it's another case of not being able to take advantage of a situation.
The two plays in this first clip are back breakers for very different reasons (the first play is the first TD, but it's second and goal from the 13; the second play is the game ender), but they both have the same theme, our back seven struggle in coverage. Watch the defenders in both clips, and look at how many are not "finding work" in their zones. Like I said last week, turf is not going to hurt you, so don't cover it. It's 6 on 3 in the back end of the first play, that cannot equal a touchdown, especially one like that. In the second play, Kansas State has done you a favor by cutting the field in half, and yet there are still two men open. This is partly because they are doubling Deuce, which I'm fine with, but Kosi needs to drop deeper and make this flood concept much harder to read. There are a lot of new faces in the back 7, and I get that there was almost no spring and a weird fall camp, but this has to get better in a hurry.
Speaking of back breaking plays, the three running plays in this clip all qualify. They are all read plays that are meant to get the defense thinking instead of reacting, using motion or pullers one way, with flow going the opposite way. They are tough plays to defend, everyone must do their job or a good team will capitalize, and Kansas State capitalized. Besides the situation and/or down and distance, the most frustrating part, especially with the last two plays, is that Tech is playing against an inexperienced back up quarterback, and there appeared to be zero adjustment. MAKE HIM BEAT YOU! If I have to choose between Deuce Vaughn running the ball or a backup quarterback... I'm giving a keep read every single time. Don't get me wrong, these are well designed and well executed plays, but watch all the poor tackles and bad angles that take a minimum gain to a big gain. It's just disheartening to see because this unit seems really close to being stood enough.
This next play is just one that cannot happen, especially in games like Tech found themselves in on Saturday. KState actually made a special teams mistake, fair caught a punt at the three, and Tech had an opportunity to capitalize on a short field if they can force a punt here. Instead, after two good defensive plays, the Red Raider defense cannot contain Skylar Thompson and he scrambles for the first down... on the way to a 97 yard scoring drive. I don't really know what the plan is here, there is no spy, and the pass rush doesn't get home, and that allows Thompson to do what he does.
Ok, so it's time to talk about the game ending touchdown. I actually don't hate the plan, especially against this QB, the problem is the way Morgenstern played Vaughn. The pass rush, even with Bradford being held around the waist, is getting there, but the QB is gifted a wide open receiver directly in his line of sight. Morgenstern needs to play Vaughn hard inside, make him take an outside release and give that pass rush an extra half second or force a more difficult throw. Personally, the only thing I change is double Vaughn with two linebackers, still send 5, but have one cover inside and one outside. Make ANYONE else beat you, allowing him to do it over and over is what hurts.
These have been pretty negative this week, and for good reason, but let's end on a high. Look at Brandon Bouyer-Randle and Tyree Wilson dominate the right side of the KSU offensive line. BBR uses a really nice pass rush move, and Wilson just uses sheer force (and is held again!). BBR finishes it with a really nice ankle tackle for the sack, we need to see more of this... but it's there.
Just like everything else with this team, the defense feels so close to being good enough, but they are just missing that killer instinct. One stop against Texas, one stop against Kansas State, and the tone of this fanbase is completely different. I don't know how or if the coaches are going to teach that killer instinct, but the sooner they do, the sooner we will all be happier on Saturday nights.
And the weird part in saying that is that I do not think the Tech defense played well, or even well enough to win, considering the in-game factors. Kansas State lost Skylar Thompson early, they really only have one true weapon (Deuce Vaughn), and it was clear they did not trust the backup.
I have the same feeling about the defense that I do the offense, they can do their job at any point throughout the game... except when the team needs them to. If the defense gets one stop against Texas and Kansas State, the Red Raiders are 3-0. Instead, the defense has given up back breaking final drives in both Big 12 games, and the team is 1-2.
I think win probability metrics get way too much play on Twitter and Sport Center, but I do find them interesting if taken in the proper context. According to CollegeFootballData.com, Texas Tech had nearly a 75% chance to win Saturday's game right before the play where Kansas State's tight end tight-roped the sideline down to the goal line. After everything that happened, after being held scoreless in the first half, after giving up a blocked punt, Texas Tech had a 75% to win in the fourth quarter. All the defense had to do was make Kansas State sustain a long drive, and they could not do it.
Here is a Defensive Havoc Chart from CollegeFootballData.com.
Havoc refers to the percentage of plays in with the defense recorded a TFL, forced a fumble, intercepted a pass or broke up a pass.
Front Seven Havoc is the percentage of plays in which the defense forced a fumble or a TFL.
DB Havoc is the percentage of plays in which the defense defended or intercepted a pass.
The chart speaks for itself, but you can see, despite the Front Seven being average, the DBs were so bad it dragged the total down to below average. Granted, there were not just an abundance of chances for the DBs to create havoc, but it's another case of not being able to take advantage of a situation.
The two plays in this first clip are back breakers for very different reasons (the first play is the first TD, but it's second and goal from the 13; the second play is the game ender), but they both have the same theme, our back seven struggle in coverage. Watch the defenders in both clips, and look at how many are not "finding work" in their zones. Like I said last week, turf is not going to hurt you, so don't cover it. It's 6 on 3 in the back end of the first play, that cannot equal a touchdown, especially one like that. In the second play, Kansas State has done you a favor by cutting the field in half, and yet there are still two men open. This is partly because they are doubling Deuce, which I'm fine with, but Kosi needs to drop deeper and make this flood concept much harder to read. There are a lot of new faces in the back 7, and I get that there was almost no spring and a weird fall camp, but this has to get better in a hurry.
Speaking of back breaking plays, the three running plays in this clip all qualify. They are all read plays that are meant to get the defense thinking instead of reacting, using motion or pullers one way, with flow going the opposite way. They are tough plays to defend, everyone must do their job or a good team will capitalize, and Kansas State capitalized. Besides the situation and/or down and distance, the most frustrating part, especially with the last two plays, is that Tech is playing against an inexperienced back up quarterback, and there appeared to be zero adjustment. MAKE HIM BEAT YOU! If I have to choose between Deuce Vaughn running the ball or a backup quarterback... I'm giving a keep read every single time. Don't get me wrong, these are well designed and well executed plays, but watch all the poor tackles and bad angles that take a minimum gain to a big gain. It's just disheartening to see because this unit seems really close to being stood enough.
This next play is just one that cannot happen, especially in games like Tech found themselves in on Saturday. KState actually made a special teams mistake, fair caught a punt at the three, and Tech had an opportunity to capitalize on a short field if they can force a punt here. Instead, after two good defensive plays, the Red Raider defense cannot contain Skylar Thompson and he scrambles for the first down... on the way to a 97 yard scoring drive. I don't really know what the plan is here, there is no spy, and the pass rush doesn't get home, and that allows Thompson to do what he does.
Ok, so it's time to talk about the game ending touchdown. I actually don't hate the plan, especially against this QB, the problem is the way Morgenstern played Vaughn. The pass rush, even with Bradford being held around the waist, is getting there, but the QB is gifted a wide open receiver directly in his line of sight. Morgenstern needs to play Vaughn hard inside, make him take an outside release and give that pass rush an extra half second or force a more difficult throw. Personally, the only thing I change is double Vaughn with two linebackers, still send 5, but have one cover inside and one outside. Make ANYONE else beat you, allowing him to do it over and over is what hurts.
These have been pretty negative this week, and for good reason, but let's end on a high. Look at Brandon Bouyer-Randle and Tyree Wilson dominate the right side of the KSU offensive line. BBR uses a really nice pass rush move, and Wilson just uses sheer force (and is held again!). BBR finishes it with a really nice ankle tackle for the sack, we need to see more of this... but it's there.
Just like everything else with this team, the defense feels so close to being good enough, but they are just missing that killer instinct. One stop against Texas, one stop against Kansas State, and the tone of this fanbase is completely different. I don't know how or if the coaches are going to teach that killer instinct, but the sooner they do, the sooner we will all be happier on Saturday nights.
