Like probably most of you I don't really care that much about these first round games, but since they will affect the NET Ratings that will impact our resume there are a few games I'm following with interest.
KSU vs. ASU:
Kansas State: Current NET Rank: 75: KSU is currently a Q1 road win, but if they lose and fall even one point they fall to a Q2 win.
ASU: Current NET Rank: 72: Similar to KSU, currently a Q1 road win but if they fall below 75 they become Q2.
Verdict: Best case would be for KSU to win a very close game so neither team falls below 75.
UCF vs. Utah:
UCF: Current NET Rank: 77: These guys are the Quad 3 loss that is the ugliest blemish on our resume (and no other Top 20 NET Teams have a Q3 loss; the only Top 25 NET teams with such a loss are #22 Clemson and #24 UCLA). The starting point for Q3 home losses is 76, so if UCF can win a game or two there's a decent shot they might move up a couple of spots which would get the ugly blemish off our resume. A Q3 loss paired with our easy non-conference schedule where we lost our only Q1 and Q2 games is enough to dock us a seed).
Utah: Current NET Rank: 68: Same as KSU, currently a Q1 road win but if they get blown out by UCF and fall below 75 they fall to a Q2 win.
Verdict: This game can affect us in several ways. I think we need UCF to win by 10. This is a double edged sword though, because if it's too big a blowout Utah could fall below 75 (although they at least have some runway), and if KSU doesn't win by enough a UCF win could displace them and knock them to Q2,
TCU vs. Colorado:
TCU: Current NET Rank: 78: Since this is an Away loss it counts as a Q2 loss. If TCU can win a couple of games and move above #76 this becomes a Q1 loss which is somewhat better than Q2 (The Committee looks at Q1/Q2 combined first, then Q1 later so it may or may not make a difference in the grand scheme of things).
CU: Current NET Rank: 90: Colorado is already a Q3 win and that won't change.
Verdict: Need TCU to blow out Colorado by 20+ to negate their loss to CU last week which dropped them.
Clear as mud?
KSU vs. ASU:
Kansas State: Current NET Rank: 75: KSU is currently a Q1 road win, but if they lose and fall even one point they fall to a Q2 win.
ASU: Current NET Rank: 72: Similar to KSU, currently a Q1 road win but if they fall below 75 they become Q2.
Verdict: Best case would be for KSU to win a very close game so neither team falls below 75.
UCF vs. Utah:
UCF: Current NET Rank: 77: These guys are the Quad 3 loss that is the ugliest blemish on our resume (and no other Top 20 NET Teams have a Q3 loss; the only Top 25 NET teams with such a loss are #22 Clemson and #24 UCLA). The starting point for Q3 home losses is 76, so if UCF can win a game or two there's a decent shot they might move up a couple of spots which would get the ugly blemish off our resume. A Q3 loss paired with our easy non-conference schedule where we lost our only Q1 and Q2 games is enough to dock us a seed).
Utah: Current NET Rank: 68: Same as KSU, currently a Q1 road win but if they get blown out by UCF and fall below 75 they fall to a Q2 win.
Verdict: This game can affect us in several ways. I think we need UCF to win by 10. This is a double edged sword though, because if it's too big a blowout Utah could fall below 75 (although they at least have some runway), and if KSU doesn't win by enough a UCF win could displace them and knock them to Q2,
TCU vs. Colorado:
TCU: Current NET Rank: 78: Since this is an Away loss it counts as a Q2 loss. If TCU can win a couple of games and move above #76 this becomes a Q1 loss which is somewhat better than Q2 (The Committee looks at Q1/Q2 combined first, then Q1 later so it may or may not make a difference in the grand scheme of things).
CU: Current NET Rank: 90: Colorado is already a Q3 win and that won't change.
Verdict: Need TCU to blow out Colorado by 20+ to negate their loss to CU last week which dropped them.
Clear as mud?
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