This is a super tight race.
Out of the top 5 teams, Tech, KU, and Iowa State are the only ones that have played 3 road games against the top half of the league. Iowa State is the only with a win in those 9 games.
Tech & Iowa State are the only teams that are 5-0 against the bottom half of the league.
Baylor has played the most games (6) against the bottom of the league, but are only 4-2 in those games. Baylor is also the only team that hasn't played any road games against one of the other top 5 teams.
Kansas State is 4-1 against the top half of the league, including a 1-1 mark in road games.
Major blows that have been landed to date:
K-State win in Ames.
K-State loss at home to UT.
Tech win in Austin (since UT has a chance to sweep KSU, and beat KU & BU at home).
ISU win in Lubbock
KU win in Waco (since Tech & ISU dropped their games in Waco)
Tech needs to finish 2-1 in its remaining 3 games against the top half of the league (BU, KU, & @ISU). Since BU, ISU, and KSU have already won @OU & @O$U, we gotta go at least 2-1 in our remaining 3 road games against the bottom half (Oklahoma schools + TCU). If we beat the remaining bottom half teams at home (UT, O$U), we win at least a share of the conference, IMO. Overall, Kenpom gives us a 28.1% chance of finishing out 4-0 at home. Kenpom estimates we will win 2.1 games in our remaining 4 road games.
KSU's road to beating a 12-6 Tech:
4-0 at home (BU, ISU, OU, O$U), which has a 21% chance of happening according to Kenpom. Then, 2-3 on the road (KU, UT, BU, TCU, WVU). Kenpom has K-State winning 1.96 conference games in their remaining road games.
A KSU loss in Waco is almost a must.
ISU's road to beating a 12-6 Tech:
4-0 at home (TCU, BU, OU, Tech), which has a 30% chance of happening according to Kenpom. Then, 2-2 on the road (TCU, K-State, Texas, WVU). Kenpom does have ISU winning 2.4 conf. games in their remaining road games.
If ISU's 30% chance of sweeping its remaining home games hits, then we're pretty much stuck with needing losses in all of these games: ISU @ KSU on 2/16, @ TCU on 2/23, & @ UT on 3/2. Good thing about Iowa State is we will at least have a puncher's chance on the last game of the year in Ames.
KU's road to beating a 12-6 Tech:
4-0 at home (OSU, WVU, K-state, BU), which has a 41% chance of happening according to Kenpom. Then, 3-1 on the road (Tech, TCU, OU, O$U). Kenpom has KU only winning 2.1 games in their remaining road conf. games.
BU's road to beating a 12-6 Tech:
5-0 at home (K-State, OU, WVU, O$U, UT), which has a 19% chance of happening per Kenpom. Then, 2-2 on the road (Tech, KSU, KU, ISU). I think these guys are going 0-4 on the road to finish out. Kenpom has BU only winning 1.21 games in their remaining road conf. games.
Overall, Kenpom estimates a 26% chance that all of BU, ISU, KSU, and KU lose at least one more remaining home game & a 7% chance that Tech wins out at home and all of the above teams lose at least one home game. If that 7% hits, we win the conference outright.
I also think that any team who can go 10-0 against the bottom half of the league will win the conference. That's still in play for Tech and Iowa State.
Out of the top 5 teams, Tech, KU, and Iowa State are the only ones that have played 3 road games against the top half of the league. Iowa State is the only with a win in those 9 games.
Tech & Iowa State are the only teams that are 5-0 against the bottom half of the league.
Baylor has played the most games (6) against the bottom of the league, but are only 4-2 in those games. Baylor is also the only team that hasn't played any road games against one of the other top 5 teams.
Kansas State is 4-1 against the top half of the league, including a 1-1 mark in road games.
Major blows that have been landed to date:
K-State win in Ames.
K-State loss at home to UT.
Tech win in Austin (since UT has a chance to sweep KSU, and beat KU & BU at home).
ISU win in Lubbock
KU win in Waco (since Tech & ISU dropped their games in Waco)
Tech needs to finish 2-1 in its remaining 3 games against the top half of the league (BU, KU, & @ISU). Since BU, ISU, and KSU have already won @OU & @O$U, we gotta go at least 2-1 in our remaining 3 road games against the bottom half (Oklahoma schools + TCU). If we beat the remaining bottom half teams at home (UT, O$U), we win at least a share of the conference, IMO. Overall, Kenpom gives us a 28.1% chance of finishing out 4-0 at home. Kenpom estimates we will win 2.1 games in our remaining 4 road games.
KSU's road to beating a 12-6 Tech:
4-0 at home (BU, ISU, OU, O$U), which has a 21% chance of happening according to Kenpom. Then, 2-3 on the road (KU, UT, BU, TCU, WVU). Kenpom has K-State winning 1.96 conference games in their remaining road games.
A KSU loss in Waco is almost a must.
ISU's road to beating a 12-6 Tech:
4-0 at home (TCU, BU, OU, Tech), which has a 30% chance of happening according to Kenpom. Then, 2-2 on the road (TCU, K-State, Texas, WVU). Kenpom does have ISU winning 2.4 conf. games in their remaining road games.
If ISU's 30% chance of sweeping its remaining home games hits, then we're pretty much stuck with needing losses in all of these games: ISU @ KSU on 2/16, @ TCU on 2/23, & @ UT on 3/2. Good thing about Iowa State is we will at least have a puncher's chance on the last game of the year in Ames.
KU's road to beating a 12-6 Tech:
4-0 at home (OSU, WVU, K-state, BU), which has a 41% chance of happening according to Kenpom. Then, 3-1 on the road (Tech, TCU, OU, O$U). Kenpom has KU only winning 2.1 games in their remaining road conf. games.
BU's road to beating a 12-6 Tech:
5-0 at home (K-State, OU, WVU, O$U, UT), which has a 19% chance of happening per Kenpom. Then, 2-2 on the road (Tech, KSU, KU, ISU). I think these guys are going 0-4 on the road to finish out. Kenpom has BU only winning 1.21 games in their remaining road conf. games.
Overall, Kenpom estimates a 26% chance that all of BU, ISU, KSU, and KU lose at least one more remaining home game & a 7% chance that Tech wins out at home and all of the above teams lose at least one home game. If that 7% hits, we win the conference outright.
I also think that any team who can go 10-0 against the bottom half of the league will win the conference. That's still in play for Tech and Iowa State.
