1. Bad Games Happen
It is unrealistic, in any sport on any level, to expect a complete, best-of-your-ability performance in every game. In fact, it's the variance in performance that makes following sports so intoxicating. No matter how good or bad a team is, there are always times where it overachieves and instances where it underachieves.
Texas Tech underachieved in Lawrence. It's as simple as that.
Fortunately for all involved on the visitor's sideline, the misadventures of the Kansas kicking game gave the Red Raiders a chance to underachieve and win. If he has any free time this week, Kliff Kingsbury should write a couple of Bill Snyder-style hand-written notes to KU kickers Matthew Wyman and Nick Bartolotta expressing his appreciation for their four missed kicks.
Kingsbury has every right to be disappointed and frustrated with how his team responded on Saturday, but should he be that surprised?
Fourteen years ago, Texas Tech hosted Kansas for Homecoming. The Jayhawks were coming off of a 4-7 season and entered that Saturday with losses to UCLA and Colorado and a narrow 24-10 win over Missouri State. The Jayhawks were bad, the Red Raiders were okay and Las Vegas installed the home team as 13-point favorites.
Spoiler alert: Texas Tech lost in overtime.
Mike Leach's team managed just 24 points in regulation against a KU team that had given up 27, 41, 38, 51, 56 and 45 points in its last six games against power conference teams. Kingsbury's numbers weren't terrible -- 23-of-37 for 242 yards and three touchdowns -- and he left the game due to injury, but the offense was generally ineffective against a weak Jayhawk defense that gave up 38 or more points in each of its last six Big 12 games of the season.
To be clear, this wasn't the scrappy Kansas that Mark Mangino would later take to bowl games. This was a Jayhawk squad that, after that Saturday in Lubbock, didn't win another Big 12 game for nearly two calendar years. They weren't quite 2015 Kansas bad, but they weren't far off.
Bad games happen. They happen in every sport on every level. It's okay to be disappointed but no one should be surprised.
2. Key Stretch Begins
Forget about what happened in Lawrence. No matter what happens the rest of the way out, Texas Tech's season will be defined by what happens over the next five games. The near-miss against Kansas will go down as an afterthought, much like the 2008 Red Raiders' close call against Nebraska.
If Texas Tech wins...
...one game: The Red Raiders will have attained bowl eligibility and met most national and regional preseason expectations. The team will have beat one of the Big 12 teams that it lost to last year.
...two games: The Red Raiders will have exceeded most national and regional expectations by winning seven games and finishing somewhere in the middle of the Big 12 standings. The team will have beat two of the Big 12 teams that it lost to last year.
...three games: Texas Tech will not only have exceeded almost every preseason expectation, but it will have kicked off the 2016 hype train. Kingsbury's team will have beat three of the Big 12 teams that it lost to last year and posted the program's first winning Big 12 record (5-4) since 2009.
...four games: The Red Raiders will go down as the biggest surprise in the Big 12 this season. The build-up for 2016 will be unlike anything the Red Raiders have seen since the 2008 season. Texas Tech will likely be ranked in the preseason polls and Pat Mahomes will get some mention as a dark horse Heisman candidate. Kingsbury's team will have beat four of the Big 12 teams that it lost to last year and won as many conference games as his 2013 and 2014 teams combined (6).
...five games: The Red Raiders will go down as one of the biggest surprises in college football this season. The hype train for 2016 will rival, and perhaps even surpass, the lead up to the 2008 season. Texas Tech will absolutely be ranked in the preseason polls and Mahomes will be regularly mentioned in Heisman conversations. Kingsbury's team will have beat five of the Big 12 teams that it lost to last year and tied a program high for conference wins (7). The 2015 season will go down as one of the best in Texas Tech history, and Kingsbury will become just the sixth Red Raider head coach to lead his team to double-digit wins.
3. Mighty Morphin Power Rankings
1. Baylor (1) -- Your weekly reminder that Baylor is No. 2 in the both major polls, in line to earn a playoff spot and played a Charmin soft non-conference schedule. Art Briles and Ian McCaw continue to win that argument.
2. TCU (2) -- The Frogs aren't earning many style points but, barring a meltdown, I don't see a team outside of Baylor that is good enough to make them pay for their missteps.
3. Oklahoma State (3) -- The Pokes will head to Lubbock with a spotless 7-0 record after they beat Kansas this week.
4. Oklahoma (5) -- There have now been 14 times that Kansas State has given up 50-plus points in a shutout. Oklahoma is responsible for six of them.
5. Texas Tech (4) -- The Red Raiders hope to rebound from their near-miss in Lawrence in the same way that Oklahoma bounced back from its loss to Texas.
6. Texas (7) -- Horns are the best 2-4 team in the country.
7. West Virginia (6) -- Dana Holgorsen has gone from helming a potential sleeper Big 12 pick to the hotseat in the span of three weeks.
8. Kansas State (8) -- The Wildcats entered this season having allowed 50-plus points just 12 times in Bill Snyder's 294 games as head coach. TCU and Oklahoma have topped the 50-point mark now in back-to-back weeks.
9. Iowa State (9) -- Bye, Paul.
10. Kansas (10) -- Still terrible.
4. Last Time Out
5. Scattershots
Would you take a confirmed 2:30 p.m. kick for the Kansas State game right now or roll the dice and risk an 11 a.m. start in hopes of getting a night game?
7. Confession Time
I'm perfectly okay with Texas Tech's game against Oklahoma State kicking off at 2:30 p.m. It works out great for me, as I'm able to get back from the stadium at a reasonable hour and watch most of the evening games.
8. Number to Know
14 -- Texas Tech has lost 14 consecutive games against Big 12 opponents not named Kansas or Iowa State.
9. Prediction for Saturday
Record -- 6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS
Texas Tech 34, OKLAHOMA 44
10. And Finally...
Less than four days until the Red Raiders' open the defining stretch of their season.
It is unrealistic, in any sport on any level, to expect a complete, best-of-your-ability performance in every game. In fact, it's the variance in performance that makes following sports so intoxicating. No matter how good or bad a team is, there are always times where it overachieves and instances where it underachieves.
Texas Tech underachieved in Lawrence. It's as simple as that.
Fortunately for all involved on the visitor's sideline, the misadventures of the Kansas kicking game gave the Red Raiders a chance to underachieve and win. If he has any free time this week, Kliff Kingsbury should write a couple of Bill Snyder-style hand-written notes to KU kickers Matthew Wyman and Nick Bartolotta expressing his appreciation for their four missed kicks.
Kingsbury has every right to be disappointed and frustrated with how his team responded on Saturday, but should he be that surprised?
Fourteen years ago, Texas Tech hosted Kansas for Homecoming. The Jayhawks were coming off of a 4-7 season and entered that Saturday with losses to UCLA and Colorado and a narrow 24-10 win over Missouri State. The Jayhawks were bad, the Red Raiders were okay and Las Vegas installed the home team as 13-point favorites.
Spoiler alert: Texas Tech lost in overtime.
Mike Leach's team managed just 24 points in regulation against a KU team that had given up 27, 41, 38, 51, 56 and 45 points in its last six games against power conference teams. Kingsbury's numbers weren't terrible -- 23-of-37 for 242 yards and three touchdowns -- and he left the game due to injury, but the offense was generally ineffective against a weak Jayhawk defense that gave up 38 or more points in each of its last six Big 12 games of the season.
To be clear, this wasn't the scrappy Kansas that Mark Mangino would later take to bowl games. This was a Jayhawk squad that, after that Saturday in Lubbock, didn't win another Big 12 game for nearly two calendar years. They weren't quite 2015 Kansas bad, but they weren't far off.
Bad games happen. They happen in every sport on every level. It's okay to be disappointed but no one should be surprised.
2. Key Stretch Begins
Forget about what happened in Lawrence. No matter what happens the rest of the way out, Texas Tech's season will be defined by what happens over the next five games. The near-miss against Kansas will go down as an afterthought, much like the 2008 Red Raiders' close call against Nebraska.
If Texas Tech wins...
...one game: The Red Raiders will have attained bowl eligibility and met most national and regional preseason expectations. The team will have beat one of the Big 12 teams that it lost to last year.
...two games: The Red Raiders will have exceeded most national and regional expectations by winning seven games and finishing somewhere in the middle of the Big 12 standings. The team will have beat two of the Big 12 teams that it lost to last year.
...three games: Texas Tech will not only have exceeded almost every preseason expectation, but it will have kicked off the 2016 hype train. Kingsbury's team will have beat three of the Big 12 teams that it lost to last year and posted the program's first winning Big 12 record (5-4) since 2009.
...four games: The Red Raiders will go down as the biggest surprise in the Big 12 this season. The build-up for 2016 will be unlike anything the Red Raiders have seen since the 2008 season. Texas Tech will likely be ranked in the preseason polls and Pat Mahomes will get some mention as a dark horse Heisman candidate. Kingsbury's team will have beat four of the Big 12 teams that it lost to last year and won as many conference games as his 2013 and 2014 teams combined (6).
...five games: The Red Raiders will go down as one of the biggest surprises in college football this season. The hype train for 2016 will rival, and perhaps even surpass, the lead up to the 2008 season. Texas Tech will absolutely be ranked in the preseason polls and Mahomes will be regularly mentioned in Heisman conversations. Kingsbury's team will have beat five of the Big 12 teams that it lost to last year and tied a program high for conference wins (7). The 2015 season will go down as one of the best in Texas Tech history, and Kingsbury will become just the sixth Red Raider head coach to lead his team to double-digit wins.
3. Mighty Morphin Power Rankings
1. Baylor (1) -- Your weekly reminder that Baylor is No. 2 in the both major polls, in line to earn a playoff spot and played a Charmin soft non-conference schedule. Art Briles and Ian McCaw continue to win that argument.
2. TCU (2) -- The Frogs aren't earning many style points but, barring a meltdown, I don't see a team outside of Baylor that is good enough to make them pay for their missteps.
3. Oklahoma State (3) -- The Pokes will head to Lubbock with a spotless 7-0 record after they beat Kansas this week.
4. Oklahoma (5) -- There have now been 14 times that Kansas State has given up 50-plus points in a shutout. Oklahoma is responsible for six of them.
5. Texas Tech (4) -- The Red Raiders hope to rebound from their near-miss in Lawrence in the same way that Oklahoma bounced back from its loss to Texas.
6. Texas (7) -- Horns are the best 2-4 team in the country.
7. West Virginia (6) -- Dana Holgorsen has gone from helming a potential sleeper Big 12 pick to the hotseat in the span of three weeks.
8. Kansas State (8) -- The Wildcats entered this season having allowed 50-plus points just 12 times in Bill Snyder's 294 games as head coach. TCU and Oklahoma have topped the 50-point mark now in back-to-back weeks.
9. Iowa State (9) -- Bye, Paul.
10. Kansas (10) -- Still terrible.
4. Last Time Out
5. Scattershots
- Texas Tech leads the FBS in plays of 10-plus yards (156), gains of 40-plus yards (22) and gains of 50-plus yards (12). The team is second nationally, behind Baylor, in plays of 20-plus yards (55) and 30-plus yards (34).
- The Red Raiders are last or tied for last in the Big 12 in allowing plays of 10-plus yards (125), 20-plus yards (43), 30-plus yards (20), 40-plus yards (11), 50-plus yards (5), 60-plus yards (3), 70-plus yards (3), 80-plus yards (2) and 90-plus yards (1).
- The Red Raiders have scored 46 touchdowns through seven games this season. Last year, the team scored a total of 49 touchdowns.
- Despite the low output in Lawrence, Texas Tech is still on track to break the program scoring record (569, 2008). If the current average holds, the Red Raiders will score 642 points this season.
- Texas Tech is sixth in the Big 12 in penalties per game (7.3) and fifth in penalty yards per game (61.7).
- The Red Raiders are tied for first in the Big 12 in overall turnover margin (plus-6) and second in the league in turnovers forced (15).
- Texas Tech has already met its forced turnovers total from last year (15). If the team continues to force turnovers at this pace, it will fall just short (28) of matching the best takeaway seasons of the Air Raid era (29 in 2000 and 2008). The program record for takeaways is 35 set in 1989.
- The Red Raiders' 6.1 yards per play average against Kansas was their lowest since averaging 4.8 against Texas last year. It was the team's lowest yard per play average in a win since averaging 5.2 yards per snap against Kansas in 2013.
- Pat Mahomes leads the Big 12 in attempts (307), completions (196) and passing yards (2,618). He is second in the league in total offense (2,852). He is on pace to shatter Graham Harrell's sophomore passing (4,555) and total offense records (4,489).
- Mahomes is now 7-3-1 against the spread as a starter. The three losses were Saturday's game against Kansas, the Baylor game earlier this month and last year's Texas game.
- Jakeem Grant is tied for second in the Big 12 in plays of 10-plus yards (29). He is second in the league in receptions (49) and third in receiving yards (719).
- Kliff Kingsbury is now 13-2 when leading at the half, 1-13 when trailing and 3-0 when tied. The exceptions: The Red Raiders lost to West Virginia (21-10) and Oklahoma (14-7) in 2014 despite leading at the half, and overcame a three-point halftime deficit to Iowa State last year to win.
- The Red Raiders are now 5-3 under Kingsbury when wearing white helmets, white jerseys and white pants. The team also wore this combination against UTEP earlier this season.
Would you take a confirmed 2:30 p.m. kick for the Kansas State game right now or roll the dice and risk an 11 a.m. start in hopes of getting a night game?
7. Confession Time
I'm perfectly okay with Texas Tech's game against Oklahoma State kicking off at 2:30 p.m. It works out great for me, as I'm able to get back from the stadium at a reasonable hour and watch most of the evening games.
8. Number to Know
14 -- Texas Tech has lost 14 consecutive games against Big 12 opponents not named Kansas or Iowa State.
9. Prediction for Saturday
Record -- 6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS
Texas Tech 34, OKLAHOMA 44
10. And Finally...
Less than four days until the Red Raiders' open the defining stretch of their season.
