After watching one third of our football season, I think it is safe to say this: We are a really good football team again. Not great, but really good. The last second loss to TCU is a heartbreaker and we will probably lose to Baylor tomorrow, but we should be a 7-8 win team this year with our trajectory on an upward path. We have an absolute stud at QB, a play caller who I think is as good as anyone in the game right now, and a defensive coordinator who is making something sorta like lemonade out of lemons.
The TCU game was a loss, and I understand that TCU was depleted by injury and felony. But they are a great team with a mastermind of a defensive coach, ranked third in the country, and we almost beat them with, really, a far less than perfect game. On our first possession we went three and out with Grant dropping an easy pass in his bread basket on third down that would have been a first. Our WR made four more inexcusable drops in the game and at least one of them also stalled a drive. On our third offensive series we had ‘The Snap’ that resulted in a safety and a 9 point swing, as TCU scored a TD after we punted to them. Justis Nelson dropped an easy, sure fire interception, and also dropped a harder but very catchable one, either of which could have been game changers. Our coach called a timeout towards the end of the first half that backfired and allowed TCU to score before the half ended. And finally, our stud QB was injured on our second possession and wasn’t the same the rest of the game. In spite of all of this, and I’m sure there was more, TCU needed a miracle play to beat us. When you can stay with one of the best teams in the country with all of those mistakes, it says a lot about your team, I think.
We have had three common opponents between this year and last year so far, UTEP, Arkansas and TCU. The point differential from last year to this is astonishing. Our offense scored 29 (UTEP), 7 (ARK) and 25 (TCU) more points than it did last year. Our defense gave up 6 (UTEP), 25 (ARK) and 27 (TCU) fewer points than it did last year. That is a total favorable point differential of 39.6 points per game when compared to common opponents from last year. That is incredible, and it is a big enough sample size to at least make you go, hmm.
Our defense has been far from good, but there are two huge difference between this year and last. This year, they are getting stops. I consider a stop as any possession that does not end in a TD. That is what our DC’s stated goal has been: to get some stops and give the ball back to our offense with a chance to win. Against TCU, we had 7 stops. It would have been 8 without the miracle catch. That is a lot of stops against one of the top offenses in the country. The Arkansas game had far fewer possessions with their style of play, but we still had four stops, mostly in the second half. Which brings me to the other huge defensive difference between this year and last. Our second half defense. In our season opener Sam Houston was driving at will on us in the first half. We shut them out in the third quarter and for the beginning of the fourth. They only scored two touchdowns in garbage time late in the fourth. UTEP only scored 3 of their 20 in the second half. Arkansas only scored 3 points in the second half. Let that sink in. Last year, at our house, Arkansas ran the ball on every play in the second half and scored a touchdown on every possession, humiliating our defense. This year, at their house, they scored 3 points in the second half. And finally, TCU. TCU only scored 22 of their 55 points in the second half, and, again, 7 of them came on the lucky play at the end. Two of them came on a two point conversion that sure looked like an incompletion to me. All of this is to say, yes our defense had serious problems, but it is battling and putting our team in a position to win games this year, something it did not do most of last year.
I am now convinced that our offense is elite. And it is elite mostly without elite players. Our QB is elite. Our OL is pretty darn good. Our RB is better than I ever expected him to be. Our receivers are . . . spunky? I may be a caveman, but I do know this: receivers in a spread offense on a power 5 team should be able to catch the ball consistently. Our WR have more drops than the dow jones this year. The next time they win a one-on-one matchup for a jump ball will be their first. Yet, every game, we see them running wide open for huge plays, and see the offense putting up stellar numbers. That is because, in my opinion, we have one of the best offensive play callers I have ever seen. The way he schemes against defenses is unreal. And he does it differently in every game. This is a far different offense than we had under Leach, where we had a relatively few number of plays and counted on executing them so well that the defense couldn’t stop it. We have some of that here, but also a whole scheme that changes with each game designed to attack defensive deficiencies and tendencies that our coach picks up on. Imagine what he could do with a Josh Doctson or Corey Coleman. Hopefully we will see soon (Derrick Willies next year?).
QB. I was having trouble completely buying in. Small sample size, slightly lower completion percentage, etc. But after seeing him destroy Arkansas, and watching him almost beat TCU on one leg, I am 100% on his bandwagon. If he stays healthy, we can win any game. He is a phenomenal college QB. Enough said.
Fewer penalties. Fewer turnovers. More takeaways. Check.
So, I am excited about Tech football again. Not just this year, but for the future as well. I think we have a good, potentially great one in our head coach. Our current DC has impressed me, especially considering what he has to work with. I hope we can keep him for a while. We may only win 7 or 8 games this year, and I will take it after last year, but it is fun to watch the Red Raiders again.
Go Red Raiders!
The TCU game was a loss, and I understand that TCU was depleted by injury and felony. But they are a great team with a mastermind of a defensive coach, ranked third in the country, and we almost beat them with, really, a far less than perfect game. On our first possession we went three and out with Grant dropping an easy pass in his bread basket on third down that would have been a first. Our WR made four more inexcusable drops in the game and at least one of them also stalled a drive. On our third offensive series we had ‘The Snap’ that resulted in a safety and a 9 point swing, as TCU scored a TD after we punted to them. Justis Nelson dropped an easy, sure fire interception, and also dropped a harder but very catchable one, either of which could have been game changers. Our coach called a timeout towards the end of the first half that backfired and allowed TCU to score before the half ended. And finally, our stud QB was injured on our second possession and wasn’t the same the rest of the game. In spite of all of this, and I’m sure there was more, TCU needed a miracle play to beat us. When you can stay with one of the best teams in the country with all of those mistakes, it says a lot about your team, I think.
We have had three common opponents between this year and last year so far, UTEP, Arkansas and TCU. The point differential from last year to this is astonishing. Our offense scored 29 (UTEP), 7 (ARK) and 25 (TCU) more points than it did last year. Our defense gave up 6 (UTEP), 25 (ARK) and 27 (TCU) fewer points than it did last year. That is a total favorable point differential of 39.6 points per game when compared to common opponents from last year. That is incredible, and it is a big enough sample size to at least make you go, hmm.
Our defense has been far from good, but there are two huge difference between this year and last. This year, they are getting stops. I consider a stop as any possession that does not end in a TD. That is what our DC’s stated goal has been: to get some stops and give the ball back to our offense with a chance to win. Against TCU, we had 7 stops. It would have been 8 without the miracle catch. That is a lot of stops against one of the top offenses in the country. The Arkansas game had far fewer possessions with their style of play, but we still had four stops, mostly in the second half. Which brings me to the other huge defensive difference between this year and last. Our second half defense. In our season opener Sam Houston was driving at will on us in the first half. We shut them out in the third quarter and for the beginning of the fourth. They only scored two touchdowns in garbage time late in the fourth. UTEP only scored 3 of their 20 in the second half. Arkansas only scored 3 points in the second half. Let that sink in. Last year, at our house, Arkansas ran the ball on every play in the second half and scored a touchdown on every possession, humiliating our defense. This year, at their house, they scored 3 points in the second half. And finally, TCU. TCU only scored 22 of their 55 points in the second half, and, again, 7 of them came on the lucky play at the end. Two of them came on a two point conversion that sure looked like an incompletion to me. All of this is to say, yes our defense had serious problems, but it is battling and putting our team in a position to win games this year, something it did not do most of last year.
I am now convinced that our offense is elite. And it is elite mostly without elite players. Our QB is elite. Our OL is pretty darn good. Our RB is better than I ever expected him to be. Our receivers are . . . spunky? I may be a caveman, but I do know this: receivers in a spread offense on a power 5 team should be able to catch the ball consistently. Our WR have more drops than the dow jones this year. The next time they win a one-on-one matchup for a jump ball will be their first. Yet, every game, we see them running wide open for huge plays, and see the offense putting up stellar numbers. That is because, in my opinion, we have one of the best offensive play callers I have ever seen. The way he schemes against defenses is unreal. And he does it differently in every game. This is a far different offense than we had under Leach, where we had a relatively few number of plays and counted on executing them so well that the defense couldn’t stop it. We have some of that here, but also a whole scheme that changes with each game designed to attack defensive deficiencies and tendencies that our coach picks up on. Imagine what he could do with a Josh Doctson or Corey Coleman. Hopefully we will see soon (Derrick Willies next year?).
QB. I was having trouble completely buying in. Small sample size, slightly lower completion percentage, etc. But after seeing him destroy Arkansas, and watching him almost beat TCU on one leg, I am 100% on his bandwagon. If he stays healthy, we can win any game. He is a phenomenal college QB. Enough said.
Fewer penalties. Fewer turnovers. More takeaways. Check.
So, I am excited about Tech football again. Not just this year, but for the future as well. I think we have a good, potentially great one in our head coach. Our current DC has impressed me, especially considering what he has to work with. I hope we can keep him for a while. We may only win 7 or 8 games this year, and I will take it after last year, but it is fun to watch the Red Raiders again.
Go Red Raiders!
