When thinking about the the 2020 Texas Tech offense, I'm reminded of two Kevin Malone gifs (two because, honestly, one wouldn't do it justice).
It was almost an out of body experience as a Tech fan to have more faith in the defense to perform than the offense. Thinking "we're going to need the defense to win this" and it, not only being possible, but actually happening (West Virginia, Baylor, Kansas). Football Outsiders agrees, below are the numbers and rankings from last season, the third column is 2018 (which we all thought was a below average year offensively) for reference.
Looking at that chart, it backs up everything we saw and were frustrated with from the offense in 2020, none of that information is surprising. I am slightly surprised at just HOW bad these numbers are considering the Texas and Oklahoma State games. Anyway, of all the bad here, the two numbers that stand out the most are First Down Rate (OFD) and Busted Drive Rate (OBD) (for now I'm going to ignore the turnover rate numbers because that is a disturbing trend that is supposedly random, although it's been bad for Tech for years). These two stats are intertwined, especially when an offense is as underwhelming as Texas Tech was last season, only a special scheme or a special quarterback can regularly propel an offense forward from behind the chains situations. We saw Mahomes and Kliff do this regularly, it was incredible and probably taken for granted.
I went back and watched almost every third down (the down that has to be won for a team to be successful) in games where the offense struggled, wins and losses, and it was amazing to me just how many third and longs occurred. I attribute this recipe for disaster to scheme predicability and quarterback play. Everyone knew what was coming almost every down. I knew from my couch, the linebackers knew from their stance, Gary Patterson knew from the sideline. It was no secret. Even the trick play was the exact same every time (it only worked against Kansas). An offense can be predictable, but a team has to execute perfectly and have plus talent to succeed regularly, and neither of those can be attributed to the Texas Tech offense.
Before we look deeper into stats and video, remember, the point of these previews is not to bum you out, it's to show what needs to be improved on and how it can be done, in order for 2021 to be different.
I'm not going to breakdown each of the plays in this clip, but there are a couple of things that need to be highlighted. First, watch the quarterbacks, especially Bowman, very rarely was there any attempt to push the ball downfield or even look downfield. The easiest and check-downiest path was almost always taken... no matter the situation. Next, look at how easy the defense covers the concepts. The offense never really put the defense in any kind of conflict or stress. I'm all for simplicity, but you can't be simple AND easy to defend, or, well, you end up like last year's offense.
To reiterate both of the above points, here is every third down (while the game was still in reach) against Iowa State. I won't even have to tell you what to look at, but I will, IT'S THE SAME FREAKING PLAYYYYYY. I'm still mad about it. Tech had a chance in this game, the defense played well, they scored on special teams, but the offense was so inept that the game was basically over by the fourth quarter. It's no wonder Eazy got vocal on the sidelines during this game. I'm all for "running a play until the defense can stop it" (I once ran counter 26 times in a game), but what happens when the defense stops it the first time and it still is run over and over? Well, rewatch the ISU game to find out. (Before I leave this point, I know it's not the exact same play being run every time, because there are different route combinations, but which one is thrown?)
The offensive line received a lot of flack and blame last year for the performance of the offense as a whole, but I don't think that was fair and I'm not worried about that unit moving forward. Granted, the grades below are not anything to brag about, but they are not indicative of the offensive unit and overall production. My blanket excuse for the offensive line is that they were not put in a position to succeed. It's hard enough to block Power 5 defensive lineman, it's impossible when the defense knows what play is coming, and the defense did more often than not. Additionally, just like with scheme, quarterback play can make or break the offensive line, and they received no favors in that area either.
Like I was saying about quarterback play, the graph below from CollegeFootballData shows Player Usage (Usage is the percentage of plays on which a player was involved. Recordable events include passes, incompletions, rushes, receptions, and targets.) vs. PPA (Predicted Points Added (PPA) uses Expected Points to measure the outcome of a play. It takes the EP value from the beginning of a play (e.g. 2nd and 5 at the 50) and subtracts it from the EP value resulting from the play (e.g. rush for 10 yards results in 1st and 10 from the 40)). The gist here goes with the theme of this article as a whole... it was bad. Only the Kansas quarterbacks performed worse.
So, going into 2021, can this ship be turned around? Absolutely. How? Better scheme and better quarterback play. Both of those things seem to be on the table, and I am confident that they will both be vast improvements. I've already written about why, but if you need a refresher, below are those stories.
Cumbie Analysis #1
Cumbie Analysis #2
Shough v. Iowa State Analysis
If you don't believe me and why I think both Cumbie and Shough are exactly what is needed to inject the "Texas Tech" back into this offense, then here is this quote from @C. Level's most recent Spitballin' post.
That quote is encouraging for all kinds of reasons, but specifically because every aspect written about is where modern offensive football is going and almost all were missing the last two seasons. Motion, personnel groups, tight ends also provide problems for defenses. It gets them thinking, keeps them guessing, and forces them into conflicts, another element that was missing from the Tech offense last season.
Finally, here are the top ten offenses according to Football Outsiders last season. Each of these offenses do a great job of utilizing every aspect of Level's post about Cumbie's scheme. Essentially, Texas Tech is heading in the right direction. There is reason for optimism because, at the very least, it cannot be worse than last year. Merry Christmas.
It was almost an out of body experience as a Tech fan to have more faith in the defense to perform than the offense. Thinking "we're going to need the defense to win this" and it, not only being possible, but actually happening (West Virginia, Baylor, Kansas). Football Outsiders agrees, below are the numbers and rankings from last season, the third column is 2018 (which we all thought was a below average year offensively) for reference.
| Offense ratings (OFEI) represent the per-possession scoring advantage each offense would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. | .02 (62) | .31 (47) |
| Offensive drive efficiency (ODE) is scoring value gained or lost per offensive drive. | -.28 (88) | .25 (41) |
| Offensive points per drive (OPD) is total net points scored per offensive drive. | 1.87 (93) | 2.41 (38) |
| Offensive available yards percentage (OAY) is drive yards gained divided by drive yards available based on starting field position. | .413 (99) | .492 (43) |
| Offensive yards per play (OPP) is drive yards gained per offensive play. | 5.69 (68) | 5.59 (72) |
| Touchdown rate (OTD) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a touchdown. | .239 (87) | .299 (41) |
| Value drive rate (OVD) is the percentage of offensive drives that conclude with a drive end value greater than the drive start value based on field position. | .325 (84) | .401 (42) |
| First down rate (OFD) is the percentage of offensive drives that earn at least one first down. | .615 (111) | .745 (24) |
| Busted drive rate (OBD) is the percentage of offensive drives that gain zero or negative yards. | .154 (107) | .139 (92) |
| Turnover rate (OTO) is the percentage of offensive drives that end with an interception or fumble. | .154 (102) | .146 (109) |
Looking at that chart, it backs up everything we saw and were frustrated with from the offense in 2020, none of that information is surprising. I am slightly surprised at just HOW bad these numbers are considering the Texas and Oklahoma State games. Anyway, of all the bad here, the two numbers that stand out the most are First Down Rate (OFD) and Busted Drive Rate (OBD) (for now I'm going to ignore the turnover rate numbers because that is a disturbing trend that is supposedly random, although it's been bad for Tech for years). These two stats are intertwined, especially when an offense is as underwhelming as Texas Tech was last season, only a special scheme or a special quarterback can regularly propel an offense forward from behind the chains situations. We saw Mahomes and Kliff do this regularly, it was incredible and probably taken for granted.
I went back and watched almost every third down (the down that has to be won for a team to be successful) in games where the offense struggled, wins and losses, and it was amazing to me just how many third and longs occurred. I attribute this recipe for disaster to scheme predicability and quarterback play. Everyone knew what was coming almost every down. I knew from my couch, the linebackers knew from their stance, Gary Patterson knew from the sideline. It was no secret. Even the trick play was the exact same every time (it only worked against Kansas). An offense can be predictable, but a team has to execute perfectly and have plus talent to succeed regularly, and neither of those can be attributed to the Texas Tech offense.
Before we look deeper into stats and video, remember, the point of these previews is not to bum you out, it's to show what needs to be improved on and how it can be done, in order for 2021 to be different.
I'm not going to breakdown each of the plays in this clip, but there are a couple of things that need to be highlighted. First, watch the quarterbacks, especially Bowman, very rarely was there any attempt to push the ball downfield or even look downfield. The easiest and check-downiest path was almost always taken... no matter the situation. Next, look at how easy the defense covers the concepts. The offense never really put the defense in any kind of conflict or stress. I'm all for simplicity, but you can't be simple AND easy to defend, or, well, you end up like last year's offense.
To reiterate both of the above points, here is every third down (while the game was still in reach) against Iowa State. I won't even have to tell you what to look at, but I will, IT'S THE SAME FREAKING PLAYYYYYY. I'm still mad about it. Tech had a chance in this game, the defense played well, they scored on special teams, but the offense was so inept that the game was basically over by the fourth quarter. It's no wonder Eazy got vocal on the sidelines during this game. I'm all for "running a play until the defense can stop it" (I once ran counter 26 times in a game), but what happens when the defense stops it the first time and it still is run over and over? Well, rewatch the ISU game to find out. (Before I leave this point, I know it's not the exact same play being run every time, because there are different route combinations, but which one is thrown?)
The offensive line received a lot of flack and blame last year for the performance of the offense as a whole, but I don't think that was fair and I'm not worried about that unit moving forward. Granted, the grades below are not anything to brag about, but they are not indicative of the offensive unit and overall production. My blanket excuse for the offensive line is that they were not put in a position to succeed. It's hard enough to block Power 5 defensive lineman, it's impossible when the defense knows what play is coming, and the defense did more often than not. Additionally, just like with scheme, quarterback play can make or break the offensive line, and they received no favors in that area either.
Like I was saying about quarterback play, the graph below from CollegeFootballData shows Player Usage (Usage is the percentage of plays on which a player was involved. Recordable events include passes, incompletions, rushes, receptions, and targets.) vs. PPA (Predicted Points Added (PPA) uses Expected Points to measure the outcome of a play. It takes the EP value from the beginning of a play (e.g. 2nd and 5 at the 50) and subtracts it from the EP value resulting from the play (e.g. rush for 10 yards results in 1st and 10 from the 40)). The gist here goes with the theme of this article as a whole... it was bad. Only the Kansas quarterbacks performed worse.
So, going into 2021, can this ship be turned around? Absolutely. How? Better scheme and better quarterback play. Both of those things seem to be on the table, and I am confident that they will both be vast improvements. I've already written about why, but if you need a refresher, below are those stories.
Cumbie Analysis #1
Cumbie Analysis #2
Shough v. Iowa State Analysis
If you don't believe me and why I think both Cumbie and Shough are exactly what is needed to inject the "Texas Tech" back into this offense, then here is this quote from @C. Level's most recent Spitballin' post.
That quote is encouraging for all kinds of reasons, but specifically because every aspect written about is where modern offensive football is going and almost all were missing the last two seasons. Motion, personnel groups, tight ends also provide problems for defenses. It gets them thinking, keeps them guessing, and forces them into conflicts, another element that was missing from the Tech offense last season.
Finally, here are the top ten offenses according to Football Outsiders last season. Each of these offenses do a great job of utilizing every aspect of Level's post about Cumbie's scheme. Essentially, Texas Tech is heading in the right direction. There is reason for optimism because, at the very least, it cannot be worse than last year. Merry Christmas.
