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Fun (not really) with Numbers OSU edition

Well I hope you listened to me and loaded up on Tech as they covered the 13.5, 10.5, and game day line of 11.

If you want to feel worse about the game, read on.

If you took, every play and reran them in different orders, Tech wins that game 83% of the time.

We were better passing and rushing. We were the more explosive team. Behren outplayed sanders.

So why did we lose? One turnover and terrible field position. We averaged starting on our 22 while OSU averaged starting on their 39.

Sucks to lose but at least we are competing and should start winning these

We’ve played ranked opponents

for five weeks out of six. Who does that? It’s unreal and we’ve been on the road for three of them. We just went to a FR who looked great. Not sure what took so long.

We’re fine. It’s going to come together. This is exactly what we needed. Relentless. Good on TCU for being undefeated but it’s fools gold. This isn’t our year but I’d argue it’s exactly our year.

For the people questioning McGuire or this team

Gimme a fvckin break.

We went on the road against a top 10 team with a senior heavy offense and defense, with a RS freshman starting his first ever game, without our best WR, having 5 total scholarship WRs, with a terrible OL, and lost by 10.

Had Morton not gotten hurt on a cheap shot, good chance we win it. When OSU’s defense realized Morton couldn’t move the second half, everything became much harder. Notice we magically couldn’t run the ball in the second half?

We 3-3 having played probably our hardest schedule in this freaking millennium (5 straight top 25 teams, 3 on the road), having started 3 different QBs, in the 1st year of McGuire’s tenure, and our biggest loss is by 10 in Stillwater.

If you are really, truly wondering whether McGuire or his guys can coach, you’re a complete moron. We’d be 1-5 or 2-4 with Kliff or Wells having gotten blown out in 3 of those.

This team is filled with warriors who are fighting for McGuire, Texas Tech, and most importantly, they’re fighting for each other. I’m proud of hell of this group of young men and can’t wait to watch them beat the hell out of the rest of the schedule.

Guess I’m the Minority Here

Because when thinking about conference realignment, I don’t get sad at all about “rivalries” ending. While I do understand the sentiment, I get even more excited about the idea of playing new teams and trying something different. I tend to be repulsed by rituals, traditions and monotony in other areas of my life, but I’ve still found it interesting how little nostalgia I feel towards UT and OU. Screw them.

I’m stoked about these four new teams we have coming and can’t wait to watch us compete against them in all sports. I can hardly wait to see what the next wave of new teams will look like when we expand again. I truly feel like our best days as an athletic program are ahead of us.

Half Baked Whos Comin With Me GIF

Wednesday (10/5): Previewing Big 12 Games, Locked in Bets, and the Sideline Provisions "Banger" of the Week

TCU -7 at Kansas

Arguably a battle of the worst schedules played to date in the Big 12, which is probably why College Gameday is there this week. Both teams are in the 50s range nationally in terms of toughest schedule played.

To say that TCU looks good on paper would be an understatement. Offensively, they are gaining over 8 yards per play (#2 in the country). Scoring almost 2x as many points per drive as Texas Tech. However, as mentioned above, they have not played a tough schedule from a defenses-faced standpoint. And that won't change this week. Kansas' defense has been porous, ranking 80th or worse in points per drive, available yards percentage, and yards per play.

TCU's offense gained over 500 yards in the first half against OU. 500 plus yards. In one half of football. Over 11 yards per play. A balanced attack, too. 50/50 run to pass. 8 guys ran the football, 10 guys caught a pass. It's shocking that Max Duggan didn't win that job out of fall camp. They looked like an unstoppable force against an OU defense that is hemorrhaging TD drives.

TCU's defense caught a bit of a break by knocking Dillon Gabriel out of the game. They still would've won, for sure. But OU punted or turned it over on downs 5 straight possessions after Gabriel went out.

Meanwhile, Kansas is.... *sigh*.. I still don't think they're that good. I've said it a couple times now, and they just keep winning. They have a respectable offense, no question. But I don't know how they keep replicating what they're doing to win football games. They score around 10 points for every 100 yards gained. It's insane. Tech would be 5-0 with 5 double-digit wins if we were pulling shit like that.

Prediction: TCU 38, Kansas 27



Texas -7 v OU


Davis Beville is from Greenville, South Carolina. His only P5 offer out of HS was Pitt, where he attempted 32 passes in 3 years and was slated to be 3rd string for the 2022 season. Instead, he transfers to OU and apparently beat out a highly-touted FR in Nick Evers and one mythical General Booty for the back-up QB spot. He's a big m'fer. 6'5+ 230ish pounds.

Now OU is saying that all 3 QBs are taking reps in the lead up to Saturday's game.... I don't know about you guys, but I'm going to guess Venables trots out Beville over two guys that have never played a snap of college football.

But, man... Beville's in some shit come Saturday, with UT's offense gearing up to score 40... 50... 60 points? It's going to be the first start of his career and UT has some really disruptive guys up front. OU won't be able to just lean heavily on running the ball.

Part of me wonders if, had the Tua head injury stuff not happened this past week, if Dillon Gabriel would be giving it a go for OU on Saturday. Maybe so.

This was a game over the summer that had OU -3 or so favorites. Without Gabriel and with OU's defense battling an apparent meth addiction, UT is the biggest favorite that it's been in this game in years, meaning OU is staring at an 0-3 start to conference play.

Meanwhile, UT took care of business last Saturday against WVU in impressive fashion, showcasing what's (in my opinion) the best offense in the Big 12. They've played a difficult schedule, lost a QB, didn't have Worthy for a half against us, and have still put up 7.5 yards per play on the season (top 10 in the country).

This could be a blood bath. I should've bet UT -6.5. Probably should still take it at -7. The only reason I haven't bet it yet is (1) I can't shake the sense that weird things happen in this game, and (2) there seems to be some hope that Gabriel might play.

Prediction: Texas 40, Oklahoma 26



Kansas State -2.5 at Iowa State


Farmageddon. One of the coolest rivalry names in college football but a pretty boring match-up in general, if you ask me.

Kansas State is better than I thought they would be. Based on the last few weeks' lines, the betting market is essentially saying that Kansas State is equal to both Oklahoma State and Baylor. That's not something I was expecting coming into the season. And I don't think it's a result of Baylor or Oklahoma State under-performing their own expectations. Kansas State is just solid, all around. Good defense and a couple playmakers on offense. They do struggle, however, to throw the football. And that's a big limiting factor for them offensively.

It shouldn't be that big of an issue on Saturday, though, as they will be facing what is, clearly, the worst offensive team in the Big 12 in Iowa State (some bloke at Iowa State is probably saying that about us right now). 11 points on 11 drives against Kansas is... not good. Even if they convert all the FGs they attempted, it's still not good.

Iowa State's defense, on the other hand, is really good. It's just a revolving door of guys on that side of the ball and 7th-year defensive coordinator, Jon Heacock, has them playing at a high level every year. It makes me sick. I don't know how they've held on to him this long.

This certainly feels like a tough spot for Kansas State, with them looking really good in back-to-back weeks but now playing on the road against a team that just lost to Kansas. This is a great "buy low (bet on Iowa State) / sell high (bet against Kansas State)" spot. Plus, we all know the fans in Ames bring the ruckus no matter what the situation might be, which I respect a ton.

Prediction: Iowa State 23, Kansas State 21



Other Games:


Only one non-Big 12 game is particularly interesting to me.

USC -13 v. Washington State

Eric Morris is going to be a hot name pretty soon. He got what appears to be a first-round draft pick QB to go to Incarnate Word and then follow him to Washington State. That's damn impressive. They throw it a lot. And they move the football up and down the field (top 25 in yards per play). Interesting match-up with him versus Lincoln Riley, although I imagine USC will be able to name their score. I wish I would've bet Caleb Williams to win the Heisman at some point over the last few months.

Bets I've made thus far:

Mizzou +12 -105 at Florida

Georgia State -25 -105 v. Georgia Southern

Ohio State -25 -110 at Michigan State (Michigan State is so bad)

Arizona State +14 -115 v. Washington

BYU +4 -105 v. Notre Dame

UL Monroe +14 -105 v. Coastal Carolina

Oregon -12.5 -105 at Arizona

Oregon / Arizona Under 71 -110


Sideline Provisions "Banger" of the Week:

We are 1-1 on these after UT boat-raced West Virginia last week.

Kentucky -6 or -6.5 against South Carolina. I have a little -6 -110 but more on -6.5 -105.

This is an injury play. I think Will Levis is playing. If he was 100% known to be playing in this game, the line would be Kentucky -7.5 or more. In fact, I think the line does end up closing there, which means it's a great candidate for the Sideline Provisions Banger of the Week.


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Post-Oklahoma State Thoughts (pres. by Fields of Gold)

Well, sheitt..... That second half sucked.

But I'm pretty damn encouraged by what I saw this week compared to last week or, say, 87% of the last 100 or so Fall Saturdays.

No Myles Price (or Sparkman). A beleaguered offensive line. A QB making his first career start on the road, against a top 10 team that's won 11 straight games at home. We were 10.5 point underdogs for a reason. But you wouldn't have known any of that if you watched the game.

To my eye, that was the best the offensive line's played all season. They gave up some cheap sacks late when we were down and obviously throwing it, but it was a big improvement from what we've seen the last few weeks. It will be interesting to see during a rewatch how much of that was the OL playing better versus Behren making a quick decision & getting rid of the football.

SaRodorick ran really hard. 20 carries is the most of any running back this year. We just needed a few more yards on the ground in some really key 3rd and 4th and shorts. Part of me wonders why we didn't try to use Donovan as a battering ram in some of those situations.

Major shout-out to the WR corps. I thought they played great, despite having just 5 scholarship guys dressed out. Behren throws the ball, what seems like, 96 mph. Sometimes it's 2-3 feet over your head. We caught all of them. WRs made plays. They broke tackles. Got open. Bradley looked like the guy I thought he was going to be going into the season. Trey Cleveland has really emerged the last few weeks.

One of the biggest plays of the game, though, was when Jordan Brown turned around to the wrong side on a comeback route on 3rd and 7. If that's a completion, it's 1st & 10 at the 30-yard line going in, already in range for a game-tying FG, at the worst. That was huge.

Behren is going to be really good one day. Hell, he may already be. He's athletic. Very decisive. And he has a friggin' rocket launcher attached to his shoulder. He completed more throws 20+ yards downfield in one half than we have all season. The same goes for throws over the middle of the field. Way more than the last few weeks. He didn't make many mistakes. At least, not any more than we're accustomed to seeing.

The offense is so much different with Behren. I don't quite understand what it is about Behren that makes our tempo so much faster. But it is. It was crazy fast. Not every team we play is going to be used to defending an offense like that (Oklahoma State's offense is fast in its own right).

I thought the defense played okay, even if allowing over 3 points per drive isn't anything to brag about. They definitely played good enough to win.

In the second half, even though Oklahoma State had already ran 70+ snaps, the defense got 3 consecutive stops that, maybe, should've been enough for us to pull it out. The game is tied 31-31. We throw an interception that's returned inside our own 20 yard-line. The defense forces a FG and then 2 consecutive punts. We ultimately failed to score on our last 6 possessions after taking 31-23 lead.

We played a lot of guys defensively -- Wooten, Tryique Mathews, Rodriguez, Tyler Owens, Kobe Minor. All played big roles, probably because Ok. State churned out almost 100 plays. I thought the secondary won their fair share of battles in coverage against a good group of WRs.

I loved all the aggressive decisions to go for it on 4th down. We shot our shot, no question. McGuire's willingness to do the right thing gives us a chance to win some of these games that we shouldn't win on paper. A lot of coaches around the country don't have had the guts to make some of these decisions.

The next time we see something on film with the other team's kick-off return unit, I hope we try a traditional onside kick. You know, one that bounces. The likelihood of the opposing team calling a fair catch goes up by a lot when you are trying to recover a kick that's never touched the ground.

If you're trying to point the finger at one side of the ball to explain this loss, it's probably special teams. There was the missed FG -- although not a lot of shame in doinking a 45+ yarder.. that happens -- the missed onside kick, multiple bad punts by McNamara (wtf is going on w/ him), catching a punt inside the 5-yard line, an explosive KR for Ok. State, and a couple bad kick returns by us. All of those plays, collectively, probably cost us the game.

I have no clue what we are about to do at the QB spot. I'm pretty confident that Shough will be available two weeks from today. If someone made me put a % on it, I guess it's like 50% Shough / 50% Morton. Really have no idea, though. The clamoring for Behren by the fanbase in general is going to be deafening after today's performance. It's going to be really hard not to run him out there.

Texas Tech is 3-3. Being .500 sucks, but the gauntlet of our schedule is behind us. We play 4 out of the remaining 6 games at home. And there's a legitimate case to be made that we've already played the best 3-4 teams on our schedule.







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@Saynotobarefoot

Tech will win out at home

And maybe steal one at ISU or TCU with a healthy Morton leading this offense, and if this is the team we see the rest of the way. Of course, Shough may be the starter when healthy. Team looked really good today up to Morton’s injury. Defense played really well, just ran out of gas. Still mind-blowing to me why we don’t put in Donovan for those critical 3rd/4th and very short plays.

I Have Never Been More Encouraged

….after a loss than today.

1. ‘Typical Tech’ loses that game by 30+ points.
2. We know that we have a QB for the next 2-3 years.
3. The toughest part of our season is behind us and we’ve gone 2-3 against Top 25 teams (all losses on the road).
4. We’re 3-3 going in to a bye week.
5. 4 of the last 6 games at home.
6. And our defense can kick some ass.

L. F. G.

Very Impressed with this team and staff

We’re 6 games in and there’s been no quit, no blowouts, aggressive playcalling and discipline in the face of adversity…and that’s with playing 5 ranked teams in a row.

The offensive line isn’t there yet, and that will limit what this team’s ceiling is, but 6 wins and a bowl should happen, which was the goal this year.

After the last decade, just fielding a respectable team is a huge improvement.

An Honest Question

How good of a coach is Joey? I know he’s a great motivator, seems to be excellent recruiter. But as a coach some of these decisions are very odd. I also have to wonder if the running plays on critical downs are him and not Kittly.

Your defense has been playing great, keeping you in the game and on the 40 with 3 timeouts you don’t punt to try and pin them down?
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