I'm a subscriber to Bob Sturm's "Sturmstack" - his big sports brain in blog format. I asked him if I could post this morning's recap of Mahomes & the game here and he obliged (told him he might gain some new Red Raider subscribers). I do encourage you to subscribe if you like deep football analysis, and all things sports (mostly pro and DFW teams, but he covers it all.)
And this might be TLDR for some, but I don't think any of us can get enough Mahomes love:
FEB 12, 2024
The reason you hold players like Patrick Mahomes to an extremely high bar is because history matters. We cannot throw around titles like “GOAT” just because it is the latest thing in front of our face. We have memories and history books that verify that even if you weren’t alive for Joe Montana’s run, it still happened.
Not everything that has just happened is the greatest thing in history.
And yet, with Mahomes, we might consider moving our beliefs around just a bit.
He is inevitable in ways that are seldom true. This industry mocks the claim that QB’s are more responsible for wins, even when it is clear as day.
The San Francisco 49ers had an incredibly built roster that spread things across 22 players because they had the benefit of a cheaper-than-cheap QB. They had personnel advantages all over the field.
And yet, they didn’t have Patrick Mahomes. And when you have him, odds are stacked heavily in your favor that by the end of the historical day, you will also have a trophy and a parade.
That was the rationale all week. You looked at this game and analyzed it and pondered all the scenarios. And then, when you needed a prediction, it probably went a lot like mine did on Friday:
There is a simple rule that in a game like this, you take the best QB to make that play at that moment. It usually works, but given that we aren’t too removed from Nick Foles taking out Tom Brady on a day where Brady was nearly perfect, it isn’t any guarantee. That said, I am playing the odds. I will defer to the QB who seems built for this moment to win another one.
That simple rule makes analysis look pretty meaningless, but again, that is how we know greatness when we see it.
Trust me, it didn’t always make sense to simply and blindly take the team that has that one special guy. Sometimes, he has the odds stacked against him.
For instance:
This year, they did not appear to be a real heavyweight. They were declared dead by many on Christmas Day. They had to leave Arrowhead and prove they could win in hostile conditions and situations. And Vegas installed them as the underdog three consecutive games against teams that were 12-6, 14-4, and 14-5.
Yet, they knocked them down each time. And yes, each time, it was pretty clear that the winning difference between the two present-day titans of the league was this one guy. A special QB who is as inevitable as the sun setting at the end of a day.
If you leave him one sliver of an opportunity, he will figure it out and put you to the sword. And watching Mahomes pull it off in the late stages of Super Bowl 58 made the rest of the game’s buildup worth the wait. For when we have athletes like this performing for us in their prime, we must savor the opportunity to witness such accomplishments in real time.
What makes Mahomes ridiculous is that watching him accomplish what he has in each passing year is getting progressively more difficult. They take more of his advantages away and design defenses to corral him. They make him win in ways that are not his preferred method and that requires some problem-solving in real time. The offensive line could not hold off the 49ers front for much of the game. Opportunities down the field were difficult to find and they even duped him into a very uncharacteristic and poor interception to start the 2nd half as well as some un-Mahomes-like sacks. The 49ers schemed their tails off to keep him from beating them. They threw everything at the Chiefs offense.
And yet, like Tom Brady before him, the longer the game went, the more you realized that you should have killed him when you had the chance. Allowing those guys to hang around and to still have a chance is the last thing you can do. He has played this way and is still only one score away? Oh, San Francisco, you will surely rue this.
The 49ers had a great plan and on both sides of the ball they were carrying much of the action. They bossed the offensive and defensive lines of scrimmage and showed they had the muscle advantage inside. They had those many game-breakers at all the positions looking poised to hammer away until they broke completely through the resistance of Kansas City.
Christian McCaffrey was showing his dominance and the physicality was clear. San Francisco had real opportunities on three different drives in the 1st half, but a fumble and a fine Trent McDuffie play in the end zone kept the proceeds of an excellent 1st half at just 10-3, Niners. The Chiefs were frustrated and emotional, but they had to know that as long as they stayed connected, they would always figure out the solutions in due time.
But, to be fair, Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, and friends were doing such a great job in keeping things in control. The Chiefs badly missed their star guard Joe Thuney and both of their tackles seemed out-matched at times. Super Bowl 55 was lost because the Chiefs’ OL gave Mahomes no chance and they vowed to never let that happen again. Yet, it was definitely happening again. Kansas City had just six points in their first nine drives. Think about that!
Two field goals in nine drives is a dream day against those Chiefs. If they had anything to show for their own offense, Kyle Shanahan’s side would have been over the moon. Instead, they had hit an enormous rut, as well. They hit on a trick-play touchdown when Jauan Jennings threw back across the field to McCaffrey with a well executed moment that might have put Jennings in the MVP mix when paired with the touchdown he would score in the fourth quarter, but between that, San Francisco had four different drives that added up to 10 plays and 9 yards resulting in a grand total of zero first downs.
That was your window.
You let something that powerful hang around and you may leave the evening with a lot of regrets – remember, in Super Bowl 55, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers created a two-touchdown lead at the half and kept on the gas to put the Chiefs away in the 3rd Quarter.
But, the pain of knowing a lot of your regret is attached not to Patrick Mahomes, but to your special teams performance will be extra difficult to recover from.
Shanahan had the game in a decent spot with 2:42 left in the 3rd Quarter until the punt that triggered everything.
Darrell Luter, Jr, is a fifth-round rookie for the 49ers that most of us are hearing about for the very first time in this Super Bowl. He apparently has played a few snaps for the 49ers defense this season, but down the stretch, he has played the outside jammer on the punt return team and was in charge of staying in front of the Chiefs gunner, Jaylen Watson.
Luter seemed to do a decent job, but when the ball landed in front of the return man, Ray-Ray McCloud, the issues began. Should McCloud have raced up and tried to fair catch it? He appeared intent on a return, but everything closed in fast and Luter was trying to help by blocking and not knowing the ball was about to land on his foot. This made it a free ball, of course, and McCloud attempted to save the day, but the Chiefs’ Watson fell on it quicker.
This moment turned the Super Bowl on its ear. This one door being left open on a punt return was all it takes to lose control of a game that you thought you were bossing around.
That is all they need.
One play later, Mahomes hits Marquez Valdez-Scantling for a touchdown and Kansas City leads, 13-10 late in the third quarter.
This is where the game gets really interesting, because we haven’t really mentioned Brock Purdy yet.
Purdy has obviously spent the entire year proving to guys like me that he is much better than we thought and has shown levels of composure and awareness that is definitely that of a solid NFL starting QB. Now, the question was whether he could beat Mahomes in a head-to-head moment that would secure a life-changing moment of greatness.
He definitely had his moments and rose to several occasions. The stones required to convert the 4th-and-3 in the fourth quarter to George Kittle demonstrated the trust Shanahan has in his QB1 to put everything in his ability to execute in front of 100 million people.
Then, on his next throw, Purdy puts a slant on Jennings and he gets the lead back with a touchdown rumble to make it 16-13, because the extra point was blocked and would become a precious point lost, for sure. Purdy was quite salty for much of the day and deserves lots of credit for putting together three scoring drives in three chances in the 4th Quarter and Overtime. In other words, his team had to have points-or-else on three separate occasions with all the chips in the middle and Purdy produced. Unfortunately for him and them, the production of three scores was just 12 points total. The Chiefs used that same stretch for four drives and four scores that totaled 19 points.
As usual and as he has done with seemingly everyone in his path, Mahomes gets one more hoop than you do and takes the trophy with him.
Now, let’s be clear. It wasn’t just him. There were two magnificent blitzes on 3rd down and medium where Steve Spagnuolo is going to challenge Brock Purdy to beat him with everything on the line. Both of those two field goal drives were stopped from being touchdowns because Spags beat Purdy on two very key 3rd down moments.
Here they are:
On this one, the Chiefs are blitzing 22-McDuffie off the slot to the bottom, which leaves Brandon Aiyuk as the hot receiver. Purdy is worried about the safety there diving down and opts for Jauan Jennings again outside on the slant. The trouble is, McDuffie is the free rusher. If you can make this throw, the Chiefs may never touch the ball again, but the blitzer gets there and forces a very tough field goal that Jake Moody hits. So, we go to Overtime.
This is the rough one as Jennings down below and Aiyuk up high are both open, but again, the pressure gets there before Purdy can see it. The 49ers OL busts as the right tackle turns out and the right guard slides left leaving the biggest threat on the Chiefs defense, Chris Jones, as a free rusher on the most important play of the game. Even if Purdy can dump it to George Kittle, it is probably a 1st down, but he just throws it away. If he could do it over, he is absolutely going to play that for four downs. The moment they settled for the field goal in overtime was the moment the world knew they were doomed.
Again, not because of what you have done. Just because the other guy won’t miss.
And here it is. The sudden-death overtime winner that pushes the Chiefs to a dynasty. It is so similar to their moments in the red zone last year’s Super Bowl where Andy Reid has wrinkles down there that decide games.
This time, Mecole Hardman (New York Jets signing last spring) runs a short motion behind Kelce to confuse and then stays on that side and is free at the pylon. The Chiefs win because they have BOTH a special QB and a special coach who has always gotten the best out of every QB he has ever worked with. Andy Reid is as essential to this story as his QB1 is, partly because we doubt any other coach could have turned Mahomes from what he was at Texas Tech – in incredible toolsy gunslinger – to what he is now which is a precision-based assassin who simply beats you any way he pleases. Make no mistake, draft evaluations are fun, but the destination of a player and the wisdom of the organization and coaching staff is an essential part of these stories that often get overlooked.
And in the end, our Red Raiders legend has another moment of football immortality.
For the first time since those Belichick Patriots did it, we have a new NFL Dynasty. They have won three Super Bowls in five years and attended another one, too. They have a chance at the first three-peat of Super Bowls in history next season, too.
Oh, and the guy laying there above? He is just turned 28. There is no reason to believe he can’t keep doing this for a long time.
There are forgettable champions and forgettable Super Bowls, but what we just witnessed was phenomenal. The best QB beat a team that can be proud, but just ran into the wrong team at the wrong time.
Like Michael Jordan often would make it, it just feels like bad luck for anyone trying to win a title during this Chiefs window. They have the best coach and the best player and when you have both of those, everyone else seems like they are playing for second place.
We welcome the Chiefs to the Super Bowl Dynasty club. It is very difficult to enter, but they now have full membership.
And this might be TLDR for some, but I don't think any of us can get enough Mahomes love:
The Morning After - Chiefs win Super Bowl 58
BOB STURMFEB 12, 2024
The reason you hold players like Patrick Mahomes to an extremely high bar is because history matters. We cannot throw around titles like “GOAT” just because it is the latest thing in front of our face. We have memories and history books that verify that even if you weren’t alive for Joe Montana’s run, it still happened.
Not everything that has just happened is the greatest thing in history.
And yet, with Mahomes, we might consider moving our beliefs around just a bit.
He is inevitable in ways that are seldom true. This industry mocks the claim that QB’s are more responsible for wins, even when it is clear as day.
The San Francisco 49ers had an incredibly built roster that spread things across 22 players because they had the benefit of a cheaper-than-cheap QB. They had personnel advantages all over the field.
And yet, they didn’t have Patrick Mahomes. And when you have him, odds are stacked heavily in your favor that by the end of the historical day, you will also have a trophy and a parade.
That was the rationale all week. You looked at this game and analyzed it and pondered all the scenarios. And then, when you needed a prediction, it probably went a lot like mine did on Friday:
There is a simple rule that in a game like this, you take the best QB to make that play at that moment. It usually works, but given that we aren’t too removed from Nick Foles taking out Tom Brady on a day where Brady was nearly perfect, it isn’t any guarantee. That said, I am playing the odds. I will defer to the QB who seems built for this moment to win another one.
That simple rule makes analysis look pretty meaningless, but again, that is how we know greatness when we see it.
Trust me, it didn’t always make sense to simply and blindly take the team that has that one special guy. Sometimes, he has the odds stacked against him.
For instance:
- Bills favored by 2.5 points in the AFC Divisional Round.
- Ravens favored by 4 points in the AFC Championship Game.
- 49ers favored by 2 points in the Super Bowl.
This year, they did not appear to be a real heavyweight. They were declared dead by many on Christmas Day. They had to leave Arrowhead and prove they could win in hostile conditions and situations. And Vegas installed them as the underdog three consecutive games against teams that were 12-6, 14-4, and 14-5.
Yet, they knocked them down each time. And yes, each time, it was pretty clear that the winning difference between the two present-day titans of the league was this one guy. A special QB who is as inevitable as the sun setting at the end of a day.
If you leave him one sliver of an opportunity, he will figure it out and put you to the sword. And watching Mahomes pull it off in the late stages of Super Bowl 58 made the rest of the game’s buildup worth the wait. For when we have athletes like this performing for us in their prime, we must savor the opportunity to witness such accomplishments in real time.
What makes Mahomes ridiculous is that watching him accomplish what he has in each passing year is getting progressively more difficult. They take more of his advantages away and design defenses to corral him. They make him win in ways that are not his preferred method and that requires some problem-solving in real time. The offensive line could not hold off the 49ers front for much of the game. Opportunities down the field were difficult to find and they even duped him into a very uncharacteristic and poor interception to start the 2nd half as well as some un-Mahomes-like sacks. The 49ers schemed their tails off to keep him from beating them. They threw everything at the Chiefs offense.
And yet, like Tom Brady before him, the longer the game went, the more you realized that you should have killed him when you had the chance. Allowing those guys to hang around and to still have a chance is the last thing you can do. He has played this way and is still only one score away? Oh, San Francisco, you will surely rue this.
The 49ers had a great plan and on both sides of the ball they were carrying much of the action. They bossed the offensive and defensive lines of scrimmage and showed they had the muscle advantage inside. They had those many game-breakers at all the positions looking poised to hammer away until they broke completely through the resistance of Kansas City.
Christian McCaffrey was showing his dominance and the physicality was clear. San Francisco had real opportunities on three different drives in the 1st half, but a fumble and a fine Trent McDuffie play in the end zone kept the proceeds of an excellent 1st half at just 10-3, Niners. The Chiefs were frustrated and emotional, but they had to know that as long as they stayed connected, they would always figure out the solutions in due time.
But, to be fair, Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, and friends were doing such a great job in keeping things in control. The Chiefs badly missed their star guard Joe Thuney and both of their tackles seemed out-matched at times. Super Bowl 55 was lost because the Chiefs’ OL gave Mahomes no chance and they vowed to never let that happen again. Yet, it was definitely happening again. Kansas City had just six points in their first nine drives. Think about that!
Two field goals in nine drives is a dream day against those Chiefs. If they had anything to show for their own offense, Kyle Shanahan’s side would have been over the moon. Instead, they had hit an enormous rut, as well. They hit on a trick-play touchdown when Jauan Jennings threw back across the field to McCaffrey with a well executed moment that might have put Jennings in the MVP mix when paired with the touchdown he would score in the fourth quarter, but between that, San Francisco had four different drives that added up to 10 plays and 9 yards resulting in a grand total of zero first downs.
That was your window.
You let something that powerful hang around and you may leave the evening with a lot of regrets – remember, in Super Bowl 55, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers created a two-touchdown lead at the half and kept on the gas to put the Chiefs away in the 3rd Quarter.
But, the pain of knowing a lot of your regret is attached not to Patrick Mahomes, but to your special teams performance will be extra difficult to recover from.
Shanahan had the game in a decent spot with 2:42 left in the 3rd Quarter until the punt that triggered everything.
Darrell Luter, Jr, is a fifth-round rookie for the 49ers that most of us are hearing about for the very first time in this Super Bowl. He apparently has played a few snaps for the 49ers defense this season, but down the stretch, he has played the outside jammer on the punt return team and was in charge of staying in front of the Chiefs gunner, Jaylen Watson.
Luter seemed to do a decent job, but when the ball landed in front of the return man, Ray-Ray McCloud, the issues began. Should McCloud have raced up and tried to fair catch it? He appeared intent on a return, but everything closed in fast and Luter was trying to help by blocking and not knowing the ball was about to land on his foot. This made it a free ball, of course, and McCloud attempted to save the day, but the Chiefs’ Watson fell on it quicker.
This moment turned the Super Bowl on its ear. This one door being left open on a punt return was all it takes to lose control of a game that you thought you were bossing around.
That is all they need.
One play later, Mahomes hits Marquez Valdez-Scantling for a touchdown and Kansas City leads, 13-10 late in the third quarter.
This is where the game gets really interesting, because we haven’t really mentioned Brock Purdy yet.
Purdy has obviously spent the entire year proving to guys like me that he is much better than we thought and has shown levels of composure and awareness that is definitely that of a solid NFL starting QB. Now, the question was whether he could beat Mahomes in a head-to-head moment that would secure a life-changing moment of greatness.
He definitely had his moments and rose to several occasions. The stones required to convert the 4th-and-3 in the fourth quarter to George Kittle demonstrated the trust Shanahan has in his QB1 to put everything in his ability to execute in front of 100 million people.
Then, on his next throw, Purdy puts a slant on Jennings and he gets the lead back with a touchdown rumble to make it 16-13, because the extra point was blocked and would become a precious point lost, for sure. Purdy was quite salty for much of the day and deserves lots of credit for putting together three scoring drives in three chances in the 4th Quarter and Overtime. In other words, his team had to have points-or-else on three separate occasions with all the chips in the middle and Purdy produced. Unfortunately for him and them, the production of three scores was just 12 points total. The Chiefs used that same stretch for four drives and four scores that totaled 19 points.
As usual and as he has done with seemingly everyone in his path, Mahomes gets one more hoop than you do and takes the trophy with him.
Now, let’s be clear. It wasn’t just him. There were two magnificent blitzes on 3rd down and medium where Steve Spagnuolo is going to challenge Brock Purdy to beat him with everything on the line. Both of those two field goal drives were stopped from being touchdowns because Spags beat Purdy on two very key 3rd down moments.
Here they are:
4Q - 2:00 - 3rd and 5 - KC 35 - B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to J.Jennings
{video}On this one, the Chiefs are blitzing 22-McDuffie off the slot to the bottom, which leaves Brandon Aiyuk as the hot receiver. Purdy is worried about the safety there diving down and opts for Jauan Jennings again outside on the slant. The trouble is, McDuffie is the free rusher. If you can make this throw, the Chiefs may never touch the ball again, but the blitzer gets there and forces a very tough field goal that Jake Moody hits. So, we go to Overtime.
OT - 7:29 - 3rd and 4 - KC 9 - B.Purdy pass incomplete short right
{video}This is the rough one as Jennings down below and Aiyuk up high are both open, but again, the pressure gets there before Purdy can see it. The 49ers OL busts as the right tackle turns out and the right guard slides left leaving the biggest threat on the Chiefs defense, Chris Jones, as a free rusher on the most important play of the game. Even if Purdy can dump it to George Kittle, it is probably a 1st down, but he just throws it away. If he could do it over, he is absolutely going to play that for four downs. The moment they settled for the field goal in overtime was the moment the world knew they were doomed.
Again, not because of what you have done. Just because the other guy won’t miss.
OT - 0:06 - 1st and Goal - SF 3 - P.Mahomes pass short right to M.Hardman for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
{video}And here it is. The sudden-death overtime winner that pushes the Chiefs to a dynasty. It is so similar to their moments in the red zone last year’s Super Bowl where Andy Reid has wrinkles down there that decide games.
This time, Mecole Hardman (New York Jets signing last spring) runs a short motion behind Kelce to confuse and then stays on that side and is free at the pylon. The Chiefs win because they have BOTH a special QB and a special coach who has always gotten the best out of every QB he has ever worked with. Andy Reid is as essential to this story as his QB1 is, partly because we doubt any other coach could have turned Mahomes from what he was at Texas Tech – in incredible toolsy gunslinger – to what he is now which is a precision-based assassin who simply beats you any way he pleases. Make no mistake, draft evaluations are fun, but the destination of a player and the wisdom of the organization and coaching staff is an essential part of these stories that often get overlooked.
And in the end, our Red Raiders legend has another moment of football immortality.
For the first time since those Belichick Patriots did it, we have a new NFL Dynasty. They have won three Super Bowls in five years and attended another one, too. They have a chance at the first three-peat of Super Bowls in history next season, too.
Oh, and the guy laying there above? He is just turned 28. There is no reason to believe he can’t keep doing this for a long time.
There are forgettable champions and forgettable Super Bowls, but what we just witnessed was phenomenal. The best QB beat a team that can be proud, but just ran into the wrong team at the wrong time.
Like Michael Jordan often would make it, it just feels like bad luck for anyone trying to win a title during this Chiefs window. They have the best coach and the best player and when you have both of those, everyone else seems like they are playing for second place.
We welcome the Chiefs to the Super Bowl Dynasty club. It is very difficult to enter, but they now have full membership.
