I don’t really know what to make of bowl games anymore, outside of the big ones, they feel more like spring games than anything else. I hate that, by the way. If you would’ve told a 16 year old me that there was a 12 team playoff on the horizon, but I’d miss the old fashioned bowl season… I would’ve asked how Bam Margera’s second term as president is going. We all know college football is in a weird spot, and nothing is more indicative of that than what has happened to bowl games, outside of the playoff and Tech, I would have a hard time naming any other matchup. I’m getting off topic.
So, since “the game” didn’t really matter, all I really wanted to see was a healthy Morton, some seniors have some moments, maybe a young guy or two make a splash play, and to win. That may seem counterintuitive with how I’ve just talked down bowl games to start, but I do think there’s something to 3 consecutive winning seasons and 3 consecutive bowl wins after what this program has put us through before Cumbie and, then, McGuire took the reins.
There have been times over the past 12 months that I have posted on this website, talked on the radio, and discussed with friends that 2024 was really the year I was excited to see this team. Now I’ll admit that had mostly to do with my own personal biases against the play of several expected contributors to the 2023 team, but it also had a lot to do with finally being able to see the juice that McGuire and co. are recruiting. The athletic profiles that this staff brings on campus is unlike anything I’ve ever seen at Texas Tech, combine that with the changing conference landscape, and I cannot wait to see the Red Raiders just athletically overwhelming teams. That vision starts next fall, and I think the bowl game gave us a small glimpse into that.
With that backdrop, here are some of the things I’ll spend the next few months wondering about/anticipating for next fall.
This is probably everyone’s number one question, and we really didn’t get any clarification in Shreveport, not that we should have expected to, but it’s something to note. The only difference to me, was that a healthy Behren Morton matters, this team is 9-4 with a healthy Morton. That's not to say everything is perfect or magically fixed with a healthy #2, but it does provide Kittley with more leverage to try to solve some of his problems. The two charts below do a good job of outlining these problems.
Success Rate (Y) is an efficiency metric that determines the success of a play. Successful plays meet one of the following criteria:
Expected Points Added (EPA) uses Expected Points to measure the outcome of a play. It takes the EP value from the beginning of a play (e.g. 2nd and 5 at the 50) and subtracts it from the EP value resulting from the play (e.g. rush for 10 yards results in 1st and 10 from the 40).
This chart uses the same metrics, but for passing plays only.
Texas Tech was really bad offensively, and worse than that through the air. Sure, personnel and injuries matter, but I would argue some of the teams better than us in these charts had injury and talent problems equal to ours. We were incredibly easy to defend this year, that cannot be the case moving forward, and it's going to take more than better talent to fix it. Kittley gets a lot of flack, rightfully so, but one thing he should get credit for is changing the run game, which, inevitably, salvaged our season. He has always been more of a zone scheme guy, and went almost exclusively gap scheme to better utilize the struggling offensive line. That is what gives me hope that he can adjust his scheme in a way that makes Tech difficult to defend AND athletic. Depending solely on upgrading athleticism is, as Kevin Malone eloquently puts it, "a dangerous game friendo." Kittley's two offenses at Tech have been two of the worst I've ever seen, it has actively lost us games, that cannot be the case in 2024.
Power Success (Y) measures the percentage of running plays on 3rd or 4th down from 2 yards or less in which an offense either converted into a 1st down or scored a TD. 1st and 2nd down and goal plays within the 2 yard line are also included.
Line Yards (X) attempts to measure the number of running yards which are attributed to the offensive line. Yards are weighted as follows:
The offensive line wasn't perfect, but that chart is pretty encouraging, especially if we are expecting an upgrade of talent. There is also something to consider with a healthy quarterback and functioning passing game, that can only help the offensive from every team being able to key in on the run game.
Sure the defensive line went off in the bowl game, but throughout the season I was impressed with guys like Dingle, Jordan, Lewis, and Sanford having to step in randomly throughout the year due to injury. Chapman Lewis filled in for Rabbit when he was hurt early in the UCF game and I barely noticed a difference, that's pretty outstanding for a true freshman. The level of athleticism these guys possess provides a solid floor on performance, and allows them some wiggle room to make up for some typical young guy mistakes. If these are the flashes, I'm pretty excited to see a team full of "McGuire Guys."
Football's biggest flaw is the dependency on the quarterback position, but even acknowledging that, the success/failure of the 2024 season cannot hinge on one guy getting hurt. Have a plan ready.
Havoc refers to the percentage of plays in with the defense recorded a TFL, forced a fumble, intercepted a pass or broke up a pass.
It's really quite remarkable how successful the defense has been without creating consistent havoc. It also makes me pretty excited because if that can improve this defense will be at a level that can win conference games, almost, on their own. The answer to this question may go back to question #3, and filling a defense with freak athletes will naturally lead to more havoc, but in the meantime, I think the bowl game provided some examples of how DeRuyter plans to create havoc schematically. I don't remember seeing much of this type of stuff during the season, but it's pretty cool to see the defensive staff trying some stuff in the bowl game.
Honestly, this is the type of adjustment I'd love to see from Kittley, recognizing an issue, and implementing a plan to address it. Also worth keeping in mind that DeRuyter did this with a ton of young guys playing.
Between the wins in the transfer portal, young guys developing, and the disappointment that was this past season, I'm pretty excited for 2024. If McGuire is who we think he is, this season will, ultimately, do us good. Important to remember how new all of this is for McGuire, there were going to be growing pains, I'm betting he learns from them. It's easy to forget where we've been the past ten years, but I'm riding with the guy who has back to back winning seasons, back to back winning conference records, back to back bowl wins, and is continuing to bring top level talent to Lubbock. If i'm going to be wrong, I can feel good about being wrong when I'm betting on that.
So, since “the game” didn’t really matter, all I really wanted to see was a healthy Morton, some seniors have some moments, maybe a young guy or two make a splash play, and to win. That may seem counterintuitive with how I’ve just talked down bowl games to start, but I do think there’s something to 3 consecutive winning seasons and 3 consecutive bowl wins after what this program has put us through before Cumbie and, then, McGuire took the reins.
There have been times over the past 12 months that I have posted on this website, talked on the radio, and discussed with friends that 2024 was really the year I was excited to see this team. Now I’ll admit that had mostly to do with my own personal biases against the play of several expected contributors to the 2023 team, but it also had a lot to do with finally being able to see the juice that McGuire and co. are recruiting. The athletic profiles that this staff brings on campus is unlike anything I’ve ever seen at Texas Tech, combine that with the changing conference landscape, and I cannot wait to see the Red Raiders just athletically overwhelming teams. That vision starts next fall, and I think the bowl game gave us a small glimpse into that.
With that backdrop, here are some of the things I’ll spend the next few months wondering about/anticipating for next fall.
- What is the vision for the offense moving forward?
This is probably everyone’s number one question, and we really didn’t get any clarification in Shreveport, not that we should have expected to, but it’s something to note. The only difference to me, was that a healthy Behren Morton matters, this team is 9-4 with a healthy Morton. That's not to say everything is perfect or magically fixed with a healthy #2, but it does provide Kittley with more leverage to try to solve some of his problems. The two charts below do a good job of outlining these problems.
Success Rate (Y) is an efficiency metric that determines the success of a play. Successful plays meet one of the following criteria:
- the offense scored
- 1st downs which gain at least 50% of the yards to go
- 2nd downs which gain at least 70% of the yards to go
- 3rd and 4th downs which gain at least 100% of the yards to go
Expected Points Added (EPA) uses Expected Points to measure the outcome of a play. It takes the EP value from the beginning of a play (e.g. 2nd and 5 at the 50) and subtracts it from the EP value resulting from the play (e.g. rush for 10 yards results in 1st and 10 from the 40).
This chart uses the same metrics, but for passing plays only.
Texas Tech was really bad offensively, and worse than that through the air. Sure, personnel and injuries matter, but I would argue some of the teams better than us in these charts had injury and talent problems equal to ours. We were incredibly easy to defend this year, that cannot be the case moving forward, and it's going to take more than better talent to fix it. Kittley gets a lot of flack, rightfully so, but one thing he should get credit for is changing the run game, which, inevitably, salvaged our season. He has always been more of a zone scheme guy, and went almost exclusively gap scheme to better utilize the struggling offensive line. That is what gives me hope that he can adjust his scheme in a way that makes Tech difficult to defend AND athletic. Depending solely on upgrading athleticism is, as Kevin Malone eloquently puts it, "a dangerous game friendo." Kittley's two offenses at Tech have been two of the worst I've ever seen, it has actively lost us games, that cannot be the case in 2024.
- Are we betting the offensive line problems were personnel over scheme problems?
Power Success (Y) measures the percentage of running plays on 3rd or 4th down from 2 yards or less in which an offense either converted into a 1st down or scored a TD. 1st and 2nd down and goal plays within the 2 yard line are also included.
Line Yards (X) attempts to measure the number of running yards which are attributed to the offensive line. Yards are weighted as follows:
- losses - 120%
- 0-4 yards from LOS - 100%
- 5-10 yards from LOS - 50%
- 11+ yards from LOW - 0+
The offensive line wasn't perfect, but that chart is pretty encouraging, especially if we are expecting an upgrade of talent. There is also something to consider with a healthy quarterback and functioning passing game, that can only help the offensive from every team being able to key in on the run game.
- Are we already seeing the vision of McGuire recruiting?
Sure the defensive line went off in the bowl game, but throughout the season I was impressed with guys like Dingle, Jordan, Lewis, and Sanford having to step in randomly throughout the year due to injury. Chapman Lewis filled in for Rabbit when he was hurt early in the UCF game and I barely noticed a difference, that's pretty outstanding for a true freshman. The level of athleticism these guys possess provides a solid floor on performance, and allows them some wiggle room to make up for some typical young guy mistakes. If these are the flashes, I'm pretty excited to see a team full of "McGuire Guys."
- What’s the plan when Behren goes down?
Football's biggest flaw is the dependency on the quarterback position, but even acknowledging that, the success/failure of the 2024 season cannot hinge on one guy getting hurt. Have a plan ready.
- How does the defense create more havoc in 2024?
Havoc refers to the percentage of plays in with the defense recorded a TFL, forced a fumble, intercepted a pass or broke up a pass.
It's really quite remarkable how successful the defense has been without creating consistent havoc. It also makes me pretty excited because if that can improve this defense will be at a level that can win conference games, almost, on their own. The answer to this question may go back to question #3, and filling a defense with freak athletes will naturally lead to more havoc, but in the meantime, I think the bowl game provided some examples of how DeRuyter plans to create havoc schematically. I don't remember seeing much of this type of stuff during the season, but it's pretty cool to see the defensive staff trying some stuff in the bowl game.
Honestly, this is the type of adjustment I'd love to see from Kittley, recognizing an issue, and implementing a plan to address it. Also worth keeping in mind that DeRuyter did this with a ton of young guys playing.
Between the wins in the transfer portal, young guys developing, and the disappointment that was this past season, I'm pretty excited for 2024. If McGuire is who we think he is, this season will, ultimately, do us good. Important to remember how new all of this is for McGuire, there were going to be growing pains, I'm betting he learns from them. It's easy to forget where we've been the past ten years, but I'm riding with the guy who has back to back winning seasons, back to back winning conference records, back to back bowl wins, and is continuing to bring top level talent to Lubbock. If i'm going to be wrong, I can feel good about being wrong when I'm betting on that.
