KSU
Eric Monroe on the long play by their TE is one of the worst efforts I've ever seen by a Tech football player. Completely changed the game. I hate to call players out, and Monroe played 100+ snaps the week before against Texas (and the most defensive snaps this week). But that was... so, so bad. Just gave up on the play. With only minimum effort, he finishes the play and Tech has about a 60% chance of winning. By not finishing the play, the result was Kansas State having about a 65% chance of winning.
In the halftime interview with Level, Wells blamed one guy for missing a block on the punt. He described the blocked punt against UT as a "math problem", which I understood to mean Texas exploited the way we drew up the protection and/or we didn't line up correctly. Either way, Wells blamed this one on execution. And that looks accurate after re-watching. Eli Howard doesn't even come close to blocking the K-State safety (who I thought we would abuse all day).
Call me crazy, but I would've gone for it on 4th & 13, down by 3, with a little over 3:30 minutes in the game. Regardless of where K-State got the ball, they needed two first downs to win. And, based on the way we were kicking, obtaining good field position on our next possession (if we could even generate another possession, which we didn't) would not have been particularly important. If you don't get it, and K-State gets the ball at our 40, they may even kick a FG or go for it on 4th down (neither of which are terrible outcomes given the circumstances), so field position was not a big deal in that situation, at least IMO.
Vasher coming down one inch out of bounds for the second week in a row ends up being very significant in deciding the winner of the game.
I don't hate the defensive call (bringing 6 guys & playing 1 v 1 against 5 wide) on the last series. But we had to have known they were going to be throwing it to Deuce Vaughn. The way we decided to defend it was a really tough ask of Morgenstern.
Somehow, the full game on youtube cuts out from Tech having the ball on Columbi's first drive, 1st & 10 at the 12 yard line (down by 7) to us missing a FG from the 16 yard line. We threw an incomplete pass to Kesean Carter on 1st & 10, a -2 yard run by SaRodorick on 2nd down, and a 1 yard loss sack on 3rd down. This was the highest leverage 3-play sequence of the first half. Unfortunate that, on a day we run the ball pretty well, we lose 2 yards on that 2nd down run. Not sure what happened on these plays because I can't remember and can't find any video online.
The next high-leverage first half play: 2:00 minutes left in the half, ball at the 17 yard line. Just like we did in the other redzone possession above, on 2nd & 10, we ran the ball with Sarodorick. This time we picked up 5 yards. Within 12 seconds of Sarodorick being tackled, the ball had been snapped for our 3rd & 5 play. That's probably exactly how we drew it up, as K-State didn't really have a defense called. On the right side of the formation, Koontz and Vasher are standing wide open for an easy first down. Columbi looks only to his left at Sarodorick and throws it to him about 3 yards shy of the first down. Sarodorick drops the pass (which he does a lot) and probably wouldn't have gained a first down anyways, although we may have gone for it on 4th and short. If this had not been Columbi's third series (or if it was Bowman), I bet we throw to the open guy standing beyond the line to gain.
3 straight touchdowns out of half-time was cool. For the second straight week, we absolutely dominate the third quarter.
Not counting the possession following the blocked punt, or their last possession of the game (when we were selling out to prevent a first down), KSU had 8 "standard" possessions and scored 17 points. That's good enough to win the game (particularly since one of those touchdowns was gift-wrapped on the "give up" play / 65 yard TE reception). I do believe, however, that they would've scored a lot more if Thompson had not been knocked out so early.
Unfortunate that Vasher was dinged and that Carter got banged up during the game as well. Our FR receivers certainly look to have bright futures.
Like normal when we play K-State, they really made us earn every point. And we didn't end up getting all the points we earned due to the missed FGs. The way this game played out, IMO, shows why nerds on twitter (and Kevin Kelley at Pulaski) think you should never punt or kick field goals. We miss two chip shot field goals and still had plenty chances to win the game. Had we been lucky, and converted 4th downs into TDs, we win the game fairly easily. I can't be critical of Wells for not going for it on 4th down instead of kicking, because 95% of football coaches make the same sweek in and week out.
The Last Decade
The difference between a "good" and "bad" season (or "good" and "great" season) is usually just a handful of plays. If about 4-5 special teams plays go our way this year (onside kick recovery, make FGs, not have punts blocked), we are 2-1 at the worst, but likely 3-0. And there would not be anything fundamentally different about this team or coaching staff. We'd still be exactly who we are right now. One of the worst P5 teams in the country, but with a minuscule gap between us and, say, a top 40 team in the country. There's not a single game the rest of the way that we don't have a reasonable chance of winning. The margins are that small in this conference.
It is a bit incredible, though, for us to consistently lose games the way we have over the last decade.
2011 - Missouri, winning by 10 to start the 4th quarter. Doege's pass from inside the 10 (to an open receiver) is tipped by Michael Sam and intercepted to end the game.
2012 - BU - screen pass deflected off McDaniel's helmet taken back for a TD, one of the most bizarre ways to lose a game
2014 - WVU's kicker makes a ridiculous 50+ yard kick into the wind with no time left (Tech had the ball with 2 minutes left and a tie game but somehow gave it back for WVU to win in regulation)
2015 - TCU tipped abortion pass
2016 - KSU, allow multiple non-offense TDs, outgain them by a million
2016 - OSU, missed extra point after scoring to potentially tie it
2017 - KSU, missed chip shot FG to ice it
2017 - USF, winning by 3 with 1:17 left
2019 - BU, snap infraction
2019 - KU botched lateral
2020 - UT's miracle come back
To me, and I said this when we fired Kliff, the tipped abortion pass, the missed FG v. KSU in 2017, and allowing Flowers to score a TD with only 70 seconds left did not reflect on Kliff's abilities as a HC. Same goes with Wells. Wells very well might suck. But if that's the case, it would still be true if we were 3-0 had we recovered an onside kick v. Texas / made FGs on Saturday.
The next Tech coach to succeed will have done so because (1) he catches some breaks and wins games that would otherwise be in the list above, or (2) he does something that creates such a big margin between us and our opponents to where a handful of plays doesn't decide games. (2) is a pipe dream, and Texas is an example of that. One of the best rosters in the country, as much resources as anyone, and yet in back to back games a handful of plays decided the outcome in both. Lucky for Herman, they won 1 of those games, and he still has a chance to salvage the season and his job. Had Ingram not fumbled at the one yard line yesterday, Texas is a massive favorite to win the conference and go to the playoff and Herman is one win away (v. OU) at thumbing his nose at all of his haters (which there are plenty). But he'd still be the exact same coach he is right now... someone on a very warm seat.
Nothing is a given when you're talking about a football program like Tech, who -- since the resurgence of BU and entry of TCU to the conference -- has seen an impactful drop in the level of overall talent. This, of course, has been coupled with an increase in talent at least two programs we play every season (TCU & Baylor).
Things are different than they were 15 years ago, and I'm not talking about who the coach of Texas Tech is or isn't. Nearly everyone runs an offense that puts defenses in horrible binds. Every season, since maybe 2009, Tech's advantage in running a wide open offense and having the personnel fit to run one has eroded. It's nearly nonexistent now. The only blip on that trend line was when we had the greatest QB in the world and, in classic Tech fashion, paired him with one of the worst defenses in the history of modern college football (2016).
What is the answer? Is it Wells? Probably not, but he's in trouble because we've lost games that we easily could've won, which would've provided him with enough goodwill to last quite some time. If it's not Wells, maybe we got lucky that an onside kick wasn't recovered against UT, or the snap infraction fumble / DC lateral after the Kansas blocked FG happened. Because if Wells was 6-6 last year and 2-1 this year, he'd be set up to be here for the foreseeable future which, assuming Wells' sucks as most believe, would only have prolonged the inevitable.
There's a reason people can beat betting markets by identifying teams who lose games they *should have* won, or lose more 50/50 games than what would be expected, given they were, after all, 50/50 games. Those teams are undervalued. They are better than their binary win/loss record. Tech has been better than our record the last decade. We've lost way more of these games than we've won. Unfortunately, sports is like everything else than involves high levels of randomness, just because it's landed on black 10 times in row, doesn't mean red is anymore likely to happen on the next spin.
I've said this half-jokingly before, but I would give serious thought to a triple option offense at Texas Tech. I think it would lower the ceiling for our program (because it would be hard to recruit to), but that doesn't seem like a huge sacrifice given the way we've recruited since 2012. Zigging while everyone is zagging can work.
Of course, this current regime might be evidence that I'm wrong since Yost runs, for all intents and purposes, an option-based offense with the RPO stuff (but so does everyone else, so it's not quite the zig I'm envisioning).
Eric Monroe on the long play by their TE is one of the worst efforts I've ever seen by a Tech football player. Completely changed the game. I hate to call players out, and Monroe played 100+ snaps the week before against Texas (and the most defensive snaps this week). But that was... so, so bad. Just gave up on the play. With only minimum effort, he finishes the play and Tech has about a 60% chance of winning. By not finishing the play, the result was Kansas State having about a 65% chance of winning.
In the halftime interview with Level, Wells blamed one guy for missing a block on the punt. He described the blocked punt against UT as a "math problem", which I understood to mean Texas exploited the way we drew up the protection and/or we didn't line up correctly. Either way, Wells blamed this one on execution. And that looks accurate after re-watching. Eli Howard doesn't even come close to blocking the K-State safety (who I thought we would abuse all day).
Call me crazy, but I would've gone for it on 4th & 13, down by 3, with a little over 3:30 minutes in the game. Regardless of where K-State got the ball, they needed two first downs to win. And, based on the way we were kicking, obtaining good field position on our next possession (if we could even generate another possession, which we didn't) would not have been particularly important. If you don't get it, and K-State gets the ball at our 40, they may even kick a FG or go for it on 4th down (neither of which are terrible outcomes given the circumstances), so field position was not a big deal in that situation, at least IMO.
Vasher coming down one inch out of bounds for the second week in a row ends up being very significant in deciding the winner of the game.
I don't hate the defensive call (bringing 6 guys & playing 1 v 1 against 5 wide) on the last series. But we had to have known they were going to be throwing it to Deuce Vaughn. The way we decided to defend it was a really tough ask of Morgenstern.
Somehow, the full game on youtube cuts out from Tech having the ball on Columbi's first drive, 1st & 10 at the 12 yard line (down by 7) to us missing a FG from the 16 yard line. We threw an incomplete pass to Kesean Carter on 1st & 10, a -2 yard run by SaRodorick on 2nd down, and a 1 yard loss sack on 3rd down. This was the highest leverage 3-play sequence of the first half. Unfortunate that, on a day we run the ball pretty well, we lose 2 yards on that 2nd down run. Not sure what happened on these plays because I can't remember and can't find any video online.
The next high-leverage first half play: 2:00 minutes left in the half, ball at the 17 yard line. Just like we did in the other redzone possession above, on 2nd & 10, we ran the ball with Sarodorick. This time we picked up 5 yards. Within 12 seconds of Sarodorick being tackled, the ball had been snapped for our 3rd & 5 play. That's probably exactly how we drew it up, as K-State didn't really have a defense called. On the right side of the formation, Koontz and Vasher are standing wide open for an easy first down. Columbi looks only to his left at Sarodorick and throws it to him about 3 yards shy of the first down. Sarodorick drops the pass (which he does a lot) and probably wouldn't have gained a first down anyways, although we may have gone for it on 4th and short. If this had not been Columbi's third series (or if it was Bowman), I bet we throw to the open guy standing beyond the line to gain.
3 straight touchdowns out of half-time was cool. For the second straight week, we absolutely dominate the third quarter.
Not counting the possession following the blocked punt, or their last possession of the game (when we were selling out to prevent a first down), KSU had 8 "standard" possessions and scored 17 points. That's good enough to win the game (particularly since one of those touchdowns was gift-wrapped on the "give up" play / 65 yard TE reception). I do believe, however, that they would've scored a lot more if Thompson had not been knocked out so early.
Unfortunate that Vasher was dinged and that Carter got banged up during the game as well. Our FR receivers certainly look to have bright futures.
Like normal when we play K-State, they really made us earn every point. And we didn't end up getting all the points we earned due to the missed FGs. The way this game played out, IMO, shows why nerds on twitter (and Kevin Kelley at Pulaski) think you should never punt or kick field goals. We miss two chip shot field goals and still had plenty chances to win the game. Had we been lucky, and converted 4th downs into TDs, we win the game fairly easily. I can't be critical of Wells for not going for it on 4th down instead of kicking, because 95% of football coaches make the same sweek in and week out.
The Last Decade
The difference between a "good" and "bad" season (or "good" and "great" season) is usually just a handful of plays. If about 4-5 special teams plays go our way this year (onside kick recovery, make FGs, not have punts blocked), we are 2-1 at the worst, but likely 3-0. And there would not be anything fundamentally different about this team or coaching staff. We'd still be exactly who we are right now. One of the worst P5 teams in the country, but with a minuscule gap between us and, say, a top 40 team in the country. There's not a single game the rest of the way that we don't have a reasonable chance of winning. The margins are that small in this conference.
It is a bit incredible, though, for us to consistently lose games the way we have over the last decade.
2011 - Missouri, winning by 10 to start the 4th quarter. Doege's pass from inside the 10 (to an open receiver) is tipped by Michael Sam and intercepted to end the game.
2012 - BU - screen pass deflected off McDaniel's helmet taken back for a TD, one of the most bizarre ways to lose a game
2014 - WVU's kicker makes a ridiculous 50+ yard kick into the wind with no time left (Tech had the ball with 2 minutes left and a tie game but somehow gave it back for WVU to win in regulation)
2015 - TCU tipped abortion pass
2016 - KSU, allow multiple non-offense TDs, outgain them by a million
2016 - OSU, missed extra point after scoring to potentially tie it
2017 - KSU, missed chip shot FG to ice it
2017 - USF, winning by 3 with 1:17 left
2019 - BU, snap infraction
2019 - KU botched lateral
2020 - UT's miracle come back
To me, and I said this when we fired Kliff, the tipped abortion pass, the missed FG v. KSU in 2017, and allowing Flowers to score a TD with only 70 seconds left did not reflect on Kliff's abilities as a HC. Same goes with Wells. Wells very well might suck. But if that's the case, it would still be true if we were 3-0 had we recovered an onside kick v. Texas / made FGs on Saturday.
The next Tech coach to succeed will have done so because (1) he catches some breaks and wins games that would otherwise be in the list above, or (2) he does something that creates such a big margin between us and our opponents to where a handful of plays doesn't decide games. (2) is a pipe dream, and Texas is an example of that. One of the best rosters in the country, as much resources as anyone, and yet in back to back games a handful of plays decided the outcome in both. Lucky for Herman, they won 1 of those games, and he still has a chance to salvage the season and his job. Had Ingram not fumbled at the one yard line yesterday, Texas is a massive favorite to win the conference and go to the playoff and Herman is one win away (v. OU) at thumbing his nose at all of his haters (which there are plenty). But he'd still be the exact same coach he is right now... someone on a very warm seat.
Nothing is a given when you're talking about a football program like Tech, who -- since the resurgence of BU and entry of TCU to the conference -- has seen an impactful drop in the level of overall talent. This, of course, has been coupled with an increase in talent at least two programs we play every season (TCU & Baylor).
Things are different than they were 15 years ago, and I'm not talking about who the coach of Texas Tech is or isn't. Nearly everyone runs an offense that puts defenses in horrible binds. Every season, since maybe 2009, Tech's advantage in running a wide open offense and having the personnel fit to run one has eroded. It's nearly nonexistent now. The only blip on that trend line was when we had the greatest QB in the world and, in classic Tech fashion, paired him with one of the worst defenses in the history of modern college football (2016).
What is the answer? Is it Wells? Probably not, but he's in trouble because we've lost games that we easily could've won, which would've provided him with enough goodwill to last quite some time. If it's not Wells, maybe we got lucky that an onside kick wasn't recovered against UT, or the snap infraction fumble / DC lateral after the Kansas blocked FG happened. Because if Wells was 6-6 last year and 2-1 this year, he'd be set up to be here for the foreseeable future which, assuming Wells' sucks as most believe, would only have prolonged the inevitable.
There's a reason people can beat betting markets by identifying teams who lose games they *should have* won, or lose more 50/50 games than what would be expected, given they were, after all, 50/50 games. Those teams are undervalued. They are better than their binary win/loss record. Tech has been better than our record the last decade. We've lost way more of these games than we've won. Unfortunately, sports is like everything else than involves high levels of randomness, just because it's landed on black 10 times in row, doesn't mean red is anymore likely to happen on the next spin.
I've said this half-jokingly before, but I would give serious thought to a triple option offense at Texas Tech. I think it would lower the ceiling for our program (because it would be hard to recruit to), but that doesn't seem like a huge sacrifice given the way we've recruited since 2012. Zigging while everyone is zagging can work.
Of course, this current regime might be evidence that I'm wrong since Yost runs, for all intents and purposes, an option-based offense with the RPO stuff (but so does everyone else, so it's not quite the zig I'm envisioning).
