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HOOPS: Breaking Down the Red Raiders Pre-Season Projections pres. by Sideline Provisions

J. Apodaca

Mickey Mouse Staff Member
Staff
Mar 7, 2022
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The Red Raiders are nearing the first season under head coach Grant McCasland and with all of the computer models having released their projections for 2023-24, it’s time to break down their projections.

In both KenPom and Haslametrics, the Red Raiders are firmly on the bubble at No. 43 and No. 49 respectively. In Haslametrics projected bracketology, the Red Raiders are the third team out of the field of 68.

By KenPom, Tech is projected to go 8-10 in Big 12 play with two of those being “Tier A” games, meaning a projected top-50 opponent adjusted for venue. Haslametrics is a bit more bearish on the Red Raiders, projecting a 7-11 conference finish.

Another popular model in this space is a fairly new one on EvanMiya.com, a player-based model.

EM is extremely bullish on Tech than the other models, at least from a projection standpoint. The Red Raiders are expected to be led by Joe Toussaint, the 45th best player in the model by BPR, a stat that projects offensive and defensive production. Toussaint is the tenth best player in the conference by the statistic.

Another player that EM is excited about is Darrion Williams, last year’s Mountain West Freshman of the Year. By the numbers, Williams is expected to be the Red Raiders best defender and be a strong contributor on offense and is the 19th best player in the conference.

All three models are expecting the Red Raiders to play with a slow pace, something that McCasland was notorious for at North Texas, but has said that he wants to play at a faster pace with the Red Raiders this season.

If McCasland indeed moves at a quicker pace, it would be very interesting to see if he would be able to get more scoring out of this team.

It will be very interesting to see how these models shake out, but all of them seem to be pretty close to fair. Tech is a bubble team heading into the season, things could shake their way and have a firm grasp on the tournament, but you’re going to have to win some games that you’re not favored to do so to get there.

This season should make for an interesting story, a dawn of a new era for Tech hoops, and a decent chance to get back to March.

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