I get frustrated watching our guys insist on trying to return most kicks and only managing to get out to the 19-yard line when they could take the free 25 yards. So I looked at the numbers to see if it was in my head or if the risks of returning kicks were worth the reward.
Since the start of 2019, we’ve returned 45 kicks. The rest were touchbacks, out of bounds, onside, etc.
Seven (7) were returned to exactly the 25-yard line.
Twelve (12) were returned beyond the 25-yard line for a total of 98 net yards beyond the 25-yard line. But 62 of those 98 yards came on just two returns. The other 10 were largely minimal advances beyond the 25.
And 26 were returned shy of the 25-yard line for a net loss of 187 yards compared to had we taken it at the 25.
Eight of the 45 kick returns resulted in penalty (6) or fumble (2).
We should not be returning kickoffs right now, period. You can get the ball at the 25 every time by calling a fair catch and there’s no risk of fumble, injury, or penalty.
The negatives far outweigh the positives. It may seem minor, but starting each possession at the 25 instead of the 21, 19, or further back after a penalty really does increase your odds of scoring. Every 10 yards of field position is roughly equal to 10% scoring probability. In a shootout style game where we end up fielding 8-10 kickoffs, adding 5-10% scoring probability on each of those drives is a big deal.
End rant.
Since the start of 2019, we’ve returned 45 kicks. The rest were touchbacks, out of bounds, onside, etc.
Seven (7) were returned to exactly the 25-yard line.
Twelve (12) were returned beyond the 25-yard line for a total of 98 net yards beyond the 25-yard line. But 62 of those 98 yards came on just two returns. The other 10 were largely minimal advances beyond the 25.
And 26 were returned shy of the 25-yard line for a net loss of 187 yards compared to had we taken it at the 25.
Eight of the 45 kick returns resulted in penalty (6) or fumble (2).
We should not be returning kickoffs right now, period. You can get the ball at the 25 every time by calling a fair catch and there’s no risk of fumble, injury, or penalty.
The negatives far outweigh the positives. It may seem minor, but starting each possession at the 25 instead of the 21, 19, or further back after a penalty really does increase your odds of scoring. Every 10 yards of field position is roughly equal to 10% scoring probability. In a shootout style game where we end up fielding 8-10 kickoffs, adding 5-10% scoring probability on each of those drives is a big deal.
End rant.
