What's up guys, with the rankings update this week things seem to have settled in nicely for Tech. The Red Raiders currently have a solid grasp on the #16 spot ahead of future Big 12 opponent Cincinnati.
FULL RANKINGS
By looking at the past and what's left out there, we can estimate where things will settle for the Red Raiders.
First, Tech appears to have a primary group of 3 targets left. Of course, this is subject to and will likely change in the coming months.
Of these 3, the only one who would have an effect on the rankings is Johnson. Rivals only accounts for the top 20 recruits when doing the rankings, so Lloyd and Thompson wouldn't change the total score at a 5.5 and 5.4 respectively.
If Tech is able to get Johnson, it would give them +15 points for a total of 1808.
In 2022, that would have given Tech the #20 class in the country.
In 2021, that would have given Tech the #19 class in the country.
In 2020, that would have given Tech the #24 class in the country.
In 2019, that would have given Tech the #25 class in the country.
In 2018, that would have given Tech the #23 class in the country.
Ok, that's enough history. Going back 5 years, Tech's projected points total (should they get Johnson) would have gotten them a top 25 class every year.
Now, to make it relevant to 2023, you need to look at who is gonna pass Tech.
- Oregon is at 1737 points with 16 commits. They're a lock.
- Louisville is at 1710 points with 14 commits. They're a lock.
- Iowa is at 1540 points with 17 commits. If they land three 5.7s or better, they would pass Tech.
- Michigan State is at 1424 points with 13 commits. They seem very likely for the way they're recruiting (already eight 4-stars committed)
- Florida State, Michigan, North Carolina, Stanford, and Texas A&M all have as many 4-stars as Tech with plenty of room to move up. With the way those schools usually recruit, I expect they will.
Nobody else appears to be a real threat.
All of that to say, even if all of the above happens, Tech would have the #25 class according to the rankings. Of course, we all know athletically it is much higher than that. That's something I plan on looking at in more detail later RE: how this class compares athletically to others in the region.
Baylor has a 99 point lead over Tech for the #15 class. That is basically fueled by Austin Novosad, who is ranked as the #60 player in the country. He alone is worth 161 points. It was a big deal for them to hang onto him over Texas A&M, Ohio State and Notre Dame. Unless he decommits, there's probably not a realistic chance for the Red Raiders to pass Baylor.
The future of the Big 12 is looking bright with Baylor, Texas Tech, Cincinnati, TCU, Iowa State and West Virginia all in the top 30. I expect UCF to be up in that range too once they're full (only 9 commits, but three 4-stars so far).
FULL RANKINGS
By looking at the past and what's left out there, we can estimate where things will settle for the Red Raiders.
First, Tech appears to have a primary group of 3 targets left. Of course, this is subject to and will likely change in the coming months.
Of these 3, the only one who would have an effect on the rankings is Johnson. Rivals only accounts for the top 20 recruits when doing the rankings, so Lloyd and Thompson wouldn't change the total score at a 5.5 and 5.4 respectively.
If Tech is able to get Johnson, it would give them +15 points for a total of 1808.
In 2022, that would have given Tech the #20 class in the country.
In 2021, that would have given Tech the #19 class in the country.
In 2020, that would have given Tech the #24 class in the country.
In 2019, that would have given Tech the #25 class in the country.
In 2018, that would have given Tech the #23 class in the country.
Ok, that's enough history. Going back 5 years, Tech's projected points total (should they get Johnson) would have gotten them a top 25 class every year.
Now, to make it relevant to 2023, you need to look at who is gonna pass Tech.
- Oregon is at 1737 points with 16 commits. They're a lock.
- Louisville is at 1710 points with 14 commits. They're a lock.
- Iowa is at 1540 points with 17 commits. If they land three 5.7s or better, they would pass Tech.
- Michigan State is at 1424 points with 13 commits. They seem very likely for the way they're recruiting (already eight 4-stars committed)
- Florida State, Michigan, North Carolina, Stanford, and Texas A&M all have as many 4-stars as Tech with plenty of room to move up. With the way those schools usually recruit, I expect they will.
Nobody else appears to be a real threat.
All of that to say, even if all of the above happens, Tech would have the #25 class according to the rankings. Of course, we all know athletically it is much higher than that. That's something I plan on looking at in more detail later RE: how this class compares athletically to others in the region.
Baylor has a 99 point lead over Tech for the #15 class. That is basically fueled by Austin Novosad, who is ranked as the #60 player in the country. He alone is worth 161 points. It was a big deal for them to hang onto him over Texas A&M, Ohio State and Notre Dame. Unless he decommits, there's probably not a realistic chance for the Red Raiders to pass Baylor.
The future of the Big 12 is looking bright with Baylor, Texas Tech, Cincinnati, TCU, Iowa State and West Virginia all in the top 30. I expect UCF to be up in that range too once they're full (only 9 commits, but three 4-stars so far).
