What If? Matt Wells vs. KK

D. Kohnle · May 20, 2020

Because I am super bored, I ran some WhatIfSports.com simulations for 3 different scenarios. Due to the fact that KK was the coach before Matt Wells and Matt Wells is our current HC, I chose them and their teams for this exercise (Don't read too much into it). Matchups include Matt Wells' first Texas Tech team (2019) vs. KK's first Texas Tech team (2013) in a best of 5 matchup. I then simulated what would happen if you took Wells' best Utah State team (2018) and pitted them against a GOAT-led (Mahomes!!) Tech team in 2 best of 3 matchups (2018 vs. 2015; 2018 vs. 2016). These are the results... Just to spark some discussion...

Matchup #1: is a little bit different since in both coach's cases, they had a semi-revolving door at QB their first year. This is reflected in the matchup scenarios but the majority of the matchups are done with the main starters for those respective seasons (Webb in 2013, Duffey in 2019).

Starting rosters were:
2013 squad -
QB: Davis Webb/Baker Mayfield
RB1: Kenny Williams
RB2: Deandre Washington
WR1: Eric Ward
WR2: Bradley Marquez
WR3: Jakeem Grant
WR4: Jordan Davis
TE1: Jace Amaro

2019 squad-
QB: Alan Bowman/Jett Duffey
RB1: Sarodorick Thompson
RB2: Armand Shyne
WR1: TJ Vasher
WR2: RJ Turner
WR3: Erik Ezukanma
WR4: Dalton Rigdon
TE1: Donta Thompson

Game 1
Mayfield vs. Duffey

2013 Tech: 44
2019 Tech:41

2019 Tech took a 41-38 lead with 2:23 seconds to go but 2013 Tech eeked out the victory on a 27 yard TD run by Kenny Williams as time expired. KK led at the half 24-20.

Game 2
Mayfield vs. Bowman

2013 Tech: 32
2019 Tech: 25
Final/OT

This game seemed like an early season slog fest. KKs 2013 squad led 13-7 at the half and the game headed to OT tied at 25. Following a TD and 2-point conversion by T’Zhawn Henry (RIP) the 2019 RR were up 25-22 with 3:55 on the clock. Ryan Bustin nailed his 6th FG of the game with 3 seconds left in regulation. In OT, the 2013 Red Raiders won the toss, took the ball first and scored on an 8-yard TD pass to K. Williams on 3rd and 6. Wells’ 2019 squad couldn’t move the ball at all in OT. A 4th and 11 Alan Bowman pass sailed just out of reach of Dalton Rigdon. No butt fumbles. While a victory wasn’t in the cards for the 2019 Red Raiders, it did feel sweet to sack Baker Mayfield 6 times.

Game 3
Webb vs. Bowman

2013 Tech: 49
2019 Tech: 41

Despite the halftime deficit (24-21) and the 10-point deficit late into the 3rd quarter, KKs squad led by a dominant Webb (434 yards, 4TDs), was able to claw back to victory. Sarodorick Thompson had himself a game with 21 touches, 165 yards and 3TDs but it wasn’t enough in the end.

Game 4
Webb vs. Duffey

2019 Tech: 48
2013 Tech: 34

Following a 20-20 halftime score and a 27-20 (2019) score after 3, the two teams put on a show in the 4th quarter with 5 total touchdowns. However, after a Jace Amaro score to tie the game at 27 all, Wells’ 2019 squad would go on to score 3 straight TDs. Tech added a garbage time 28-yard Eric Ward TD with 34 seconds left to make the game look closer than it really was. Kenny Williams had a valiant effort on the ground with 135 yards and 2TDs but Webb’s 50 percent completion percentage and 3 INTs (Picked off by Douglas Coleman all 3 times) were too much to overcome. Duffey was player of the game with 330 yards, 24 completions, and 4 total TDs.

Game 5
Webb vs. Duffey

2019 Tech: 44
2013 Tech: 37

KKs 2013 squad clung to a 21-20 lead heading into the half and a slim 27-23 lead at the end of 3. Wells put the petal to the metal in the 4th quarter and outscored 2013 Tech 21-3 (44-30 lead) until a late Webb to Grant TD pass with 10 seconds cut the lead to seven. The ensuing onside kick was recovered by the Duffey-led Red Raiders who took a knee to run out the clock. Webb torched the 2019 secondary to the tune of a 29/45 for 561 yards and 4TD stat-line but 3 Webb interceptions proved costly, none more back-breaking than Webb’s 3rd INT late mid-way through the 4th quarter (Douglas Coleman) trailing only 30-27. Armand Shyne ripped off a 53-yard TD on the following play from scrimmage for the 2019 Red Raiders to extend the lead to 10 with 6:35 to play. Duffey had a spotless 0 INT game.

Analysis: 2013 Tech took the overall series 3-2 but the 2019 squad quarterbacked by Jett Duffey was far-and-away more effective than Bowman and if it wasn’t for a few defensive miscues, Matt Wells’ 4-8 squad almost posted a 4-1 record vs. 2013 KK.

Matchup #2: 2015 Texas Tech vs. 2018 Utah State; Mahomes vs. Jordan Love

Texas Tech's 2015 squad:
QB: Patrick Mahomes
RB1: Deandre Washington
RB2: Justin Stockton
WR1: Jakeem Grant
WR2: Devin Lauderdale
WR3: Ian Sadler
WR4: Reginald Davis

Game 1

2018 USU: 45
2015 Tech: 31

KKs squad was overwhelmed from the beginning after Wells’ Utah State team punched them in the mouth 28-7, less than 20 minutes into the game. Tech was inefficient on 3rd down (5/15) and Tech’s OL was absolutely porous, averaging 2ypc on the ground (52 carries) and allowing Mahomes to be sacked 7 times! The game ultimately ended when Mahomes’ 4th and 15 attempt from their own 44 resulted in a 9-yard sack. USU kicked a FG to go up 45-31 with less than a minute and a half left.

Game 2

2018 USU: 45
2015 Tech: 29

Once again Wells and Co. at USU overwhelmed KKs squad from the beginning, leading 21-3 3 minutes into the 2Q, holding a 28-10 halftime lead, and leading 42-16 at the start of the 4th. Mahomes was efficient yet again but was held in check. D. Washington had 147 yards and 2TDs, Mahomes threw for 350 and 3 TDs but both were overshadowed by USU’s 225 yards on the ground on 5.5 ypc.

Game 3

2015 Tech: 38
2018 USU: 35

Tech gets the victory on their 3rd attempt, flipping the script on the Aggies. Tech held a 28-7 lead only 20 minutes into the game.

Key moment of the game: Utah State scores with 42 seconds left in the half to cut the deficit to 14, Tech gets the ensuing kickoff and takes it to their own 24. With :38 seconds left, KK *seemingly* decides he is content with the 14-point lead heading to the half. Run call with Washington for 4 yards followed by another run for 0 yards. :30 seconds with the clock ticking….wait a second, timeout TTU! Mahomes passes to Washington for 14 yards on 3rd and 6. Timeout. 1st and 10 from the TTU 42 with 22 seconds left in the half. KK runs the ball. DEANDRE WASHINGTON with the Sadale Foster-esque run off tackle right for 40 yards. Hatfield drills his closing second 35-yard FG from the 18. Tech goes 4 plays (3 runs) in the final 26 seconds for 58 yards. Those 3 points proved critical as Tech won by 3, despite a furious 2nd half comeback by the Utes. Utah scores to cut the lead to 3 with :26 seconds but their onside kick attempt falls short.

Player of the game: Patrick Mahomes with a 20/29 for 310 yards and 4 TD statline (1 INT). Deandre Washington makes a case with 156 yards rushing on 20 carries and 3 receptions for 31 yards and a TD. Breiden Fehoko (Ha!) gets a sack.

Analysis: Matt Wells’ best team vs. the GOAT? Wells wins 2-1. Untracked 4th game has Wells’ Aggies dominating Tech 52-31.

Matchup #3: 2018 Utah State vs. 2016 Texas Tech

2016 Texas Tech squad:
QB: Patrick Mahomes (but really, honestly, should have been Nic Shimonek...)
RB1: Daleon Ward (RIP)
RB2: Justin Stockton
WR1: Jonathan Giles (RIP)
WR2: Keke Coutee
WR3: Dylan Cantrell
WR4: Cameron Batson

Game 1

2016 Tech: 47
2018 USU: 39

Tech took a dominating 31-13 lead into the 2nd half. Wells and the Aggies cut the lead to 11 mid-way through the 3rd but Tech scored on 3 straight possessions to begin the 4th quarter, taking a 47-23 lead. After Tech’s third score of the 4th quarter comes with 5:33 left on the clock, USU goes on a 6-play 60-yard TD + 2 drive in 51 seconds. USU forces a 3-and-out on the next possession and then scores on a 2-play 39-yard TD + 2 drive in 14 seconds. USU scored 18 points in 1:05 seconds, cutting the lead to 47-39 with 2:40 seconds left. Mahomes and Co. sit on the ball for the final 2:40, getting a 18-yard run up the gut by Da’Leon Ward with 1:45 on the clock to ice the game.

Mahomes is the POTG with 434 yards passing, 41 yards rushing and 3 total TDs. Jordyn Brooks recorded a sack and J. Giles (RIP) had 179 yards receiving and 2 TDs.

Game 2

2018 USU: 31
2016 Tech: 14

The normally potent offenses were mostly held in check in the first half with USU leading 7-0 after 1 and 17-7 heading into the 2nd half. After no points in the 3Q by either team, Tech gets on the board with a 1-yard Da’Leon Ward (RIP) TD run with 8:23 left in the game and a 17-14 USU lead. Following the TD, USU goes on a calculated 12-play 63-yard TD drive, taking 4:43 seconds off the clock and taking a 24-14 lead with 3:33 left to play. With the game on the line, Mahomes goes 1-3 for 6 yards on Tech’s first 3 plays. Mahomes’ 4th and 4 scramble picks up 3. On the brink, Tech turns the ball over on downs in an astounding 19 seconds. USU goes on a 4-play 22-yard TD drive following the turnover on downs to go up 31-14 with 1:55 left in the game to effectively put the game out of reach.

Mahomes was abysmal going 17/34 for 249 yards and no TDs. The ground game was equally as awful posting a statline of 40 attempts for 61 yards.

Game 3

2018 USU: 41
2016 Tech: 38

Utah State pulls out the nail-biter, scoring their game-winning TD with 11 seconds left in the game. Utah State came ready and prepared, heading into the half with a 20-14 halftime lead and a 34-21 lead heading into the pivotal 4Q. Texas Tech scores the first 17 points in the 4th quarter, none bigger than the Mahomes 12-yard scramble TD to put the Red Raiders up by 4 with 1 minute and 6 seconds left to play. The last time we saw the Red Raider defense, they forced a critical 3-and-out in less than 1 minute to give the ball back to the Red Raiders for their should-have-been game-winning TD drive. That same Red Raider defense gave up a 9-play 80-yard TD drive in 55 seconds. With a 4th and 5 from the Tech 32, the Aggies get an 11-yard gain to the 21 and score on the next play with 11 seconds left. Gibbs avoids airports for the next 12 weeks following the loss.

Washington rushed for 156 yards and Mahomes had no TOs but was sacked 4 times. Jordan Love threw for 5 TDs.

Analysis: 2018 Aggies defeat the 2016 Red Raiders, 2 games to 1. An untracked 4th game saw the Aggies win another one 27-16.

Also, I did a really random, out-of-the-blue matchup vs. Houston. I'm not sure why I chose them, honestly.... 2019 Tech vs. 2019 Houston, the battle of the 4-8s. Tech beat the actively tanking Houston team in a one-time, winner-take-all matchup 51-35 after Tech blanked Houston 34-0 in the first Q

. #RedBull

There is also options to draft fantasy basketball teams and pit them against each other. I tried @C. Level vs. @Kolt Rogers 's matchup and Level smoked them. I will outsource the "WhatIf" matchups for basketball to people who know what they are doing (@Raider Waffle). I don't think I had guys in proper positions nor did I have them playing the proper amount of minutes.

So. Anyways. Discuss.

culallen · May 20, 2020