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What I Think Happens Saturday - Oklahoma State Edition (pres. by FHIP)

4O9to8O6Nback

"I retire from podcasting"- @T. Beadles
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Dec 30, 2015
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Six years ago, this game (Tech @ Oklahoma State) had the highest opening total in the history of CFB. At least, I'm saying that it was the highest and there's no evidence to the contrary.

90 points. That was the total. Crazy.

We lost 44 - 45. It was a gut punch, too, after Clayton Hatfield shanked an extra point with less than 2 minutes remaining in the game (wasn't there an issue with the snap or Cam Batson as the holder?). Our defense allowed 10 yards every time Oklahoma State snapped the football.

The 2016 Texas Tech defense -- the leading cause of the highest opening total in CFB history -- is a relic of football failure that should be protected... so that it can be observed and studied by future generations.

It sucked to roll in to Stillwater back in 2016 with the worst defensive unit in Air Raid history. And yet... we still had a real chance to win.

Will we kick off Saturday with the worst offensive unit in the Air Raid era? Maybe. That's still on the table, unfortunately. Even if it is that, will we still find a way to scrap, claw and keep it close enough to give us a chance late?

Sometimes we, as fans, get caught up in these "absolute truths" of football when, in fact, there are really none. We can win Saturday with this OL, this QB, and with this group of WRs. Is it likely? No... maybe a 25% chance. But that's not nuthin'.

Kliff punted in that 2016 game on 4th & 1 and a separate time on Oklahoma State's 45-yard-line. Oklahoma State scored TDs on the ensuing possessions, so punting when we should not have wasn't particularly helpful.

Newsflash: McGuire's not punting in those situations Saturday. As 9-point road underdogs, this is a great spot to turn up the variance dial. And we surely will.

This 2022 Texas Tech team has proven itself to be really difficult to finish off. In every game this year, with the exception of Murray State, we've been *this close* to wearing a kill shot that would've put the game away. Tech weathered the storm and found a way to get back in the game and/or come back to win it. There is something to that.

I think we do it again this weekend. I'll even go so far as to predict that our OL holds up better in this game than it did last week or against Texas (super low bar, but still). I think Donovan and this WR corps take advantage of the only weakness on this Oklahoma State team (defending the pass). When you think about it, we have a handful of guys at critical positions (QB, LT, outside WR) fighting for their football lives. If they don't play well, they are going to lose their job to someone else.

This team has major cornered, wounded animal vibes going on.

Ultimately, it's probably not going to be enough. But I do believe we will find ourselves in a dogfight late in the 4th quarter.

Oklahoma State 31
Texas Tech 26


Random: Is it possible that this is Donovan Smith's last chance to stake his claim over the QB job at Texas Tech? I think it could be.

There is definitely a world where Shough comes back, plays the rest of the year, and Donovan goes somewhere else this off-season. Considering all the reps we've invested in him over the last 10 or so games, that would be a real shame, IMO. But at the same time, rooting against that happening is the same as rooting against Shough to return healthy and play well. Similarly, rooting for Donovan to take over the job permanently would also be bad news for people who want to see Morton get his chance at QB.

The QB position is putting my Tech football fanmanship in a weird spot.


This post is brought to you by From Here It's Podible, or FHIP for short.

FHIP -- while not the best Tech sports podcast (hell, it's not even top 30) -- is the only podcast in the world dedicated to Redraidersports subscribers. All other podcasts (which are way better than FHIP) are for your average, run-of-the-mill Tech sports fans. Those podcasts are for the peasants. Not FHIP. FHIP is made for you by people like you. The hosts watch all the football games and approximately 1/3rd of the basketball games.

Unfortunately, there was no FHIP this past week. It is, after all, a bottom-tier TexasTech-centric podcast.
 
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