It was a pretty wild experience watching all this WKU film, it shouldn’t have been a surprise, but so much of what Kittley does looks exactly like what Kliff did here. That’s not really a comment on anything, just an observation, one most of y'all will probably share when watching the clips below. I think we would all take Kliff’s offensive production with competent defense and special teams units.
Even with the similarities, there’s a lot here to look over, so I’m going to divide the passing game today, and breakdown the running game next.
There has been a lot made of just how much Kittley threw the ball at WKU, and, after looking through some analytics and watching the games, it's easy to see why... they were really really good at it. A fair criticism of Kliff's time here is that is sometimes seemed like he almost forgot running the ball was an option, I don't think that's Kittley's problem. I think he is, above all, an offensive pragmatist, he didn't run the ball very much because he knew his offense was more effective through the air.
Look at these passing numbers below, especially incredible considering how one dimensional they were...
Explosiveness measures the average EPA on plays which were marked as successful. It uses this site's EPA implementation (known as PPA).
Predicted Points Added (PPA) is the same thing as EPA. There are various different models for calculating EPA and EPA. PPA uses this site's custom EPA model.
Like I said earlier, it's hard to argue with the results. There were times when their inability to run the ball hurt them, situationally, but I do think that issue is a little overblown considering the overall success of the offense.
The table below are the analytics from Football Outsiders, obviously they include both passing and rushing, but It's important to see the overall effectiveness of this offense that was completely one dimensional most of the time.
I mean, just look at that. Kittley basically led the Hilltoppers to a top ten offense a year after they ranked 120th and 78th in 2019. All the while, not being able to run the ball with any consistency. He just figured out a way to make it work.
The turnover rate and busted drive rate, although not horrible, is slightly concerning, and that is where the reliance on passing shows up. Quick three and outs after a few incompletions, interceptions, sacks, sack fumbles, all normal occurrences on passing plays, just magnified when you have to throw it as much as they did last season.
These three numbers may be the most impressive of all of the ones listed. These numbers are not adjusted for pass attempts or run v pass percentages, so, for as often as Kittley called pass plays, he and Hamby did an exceptional job at keeping Zappe upright. One thing you'll notice in the film is how well this WKU offensive line communicated. They were almost never fooled by stunts and/or twists. It's very impressive.
To the film...
The first play is a perfect example of that offensive line communication I just referenced, UTSA sends 5 and no busted assignments. That's crucial because it gives this play time to develop, a theme for all of Kittley's passing concepts is the stress it puts defenders in, and, therefore, the space that is created. This is not a complicated route combo or coverage by UTSA (Man Free), but the deep routes give the slot receiver and Zappe plenty of room to operate in the middle of the field and convert the 3rd down.
Speaking of space and stress, the second play is another great example. Indiana is playing man and Kittley forces every defender to do their job, which creates the space necessary to run this "screen." This play is a Lincoln Riley favorite, and feels completely illegal, but the receiver catches the ball behind the LOS and runs him man right into a waiting blocker. Even if it wasn't behind the LOS, it's timed so well it would still be legal. This is called "scheming wins" and Kittley does that for his unit over and over.
Next play is the same situation, same general scheme, but a different play. Instead of running the pick/screen, he just schemes up the amount of space needed to convert this first down. UTSA is blitzing and playing Man Free again, but the safety is way off the ball, it is 3rd and 15, knowing this Kittely designs every route to create space and time for the shallow cross.
You know what helps to beat the drop 8 coverage? Make those 8 think and cover every inch of the field, Kittley is an expert at this. The presnap motion freezes the defense, and then stretches them horizontally, after that, it's 4 verticals which challenges the defense, you guessed it, vertically. The three receivers look slightly frenetic at the snap, but they all have their landmarks on the field to get to in order to create the appropriate amount of space. The alignment just tricks it up enough to create space in the zone by confusing the play side safeties and corner.
Here's some more of the same from Kittley, and it's equally awesome. We've got a unique formation out of 12 personne, both TEs and a WR lined up on the right and one TE is covered up to allow the backside receiver to go in motion. This looks like a jet sweep all the way, WKU sets up with numbers and a lead blocker, instead, it's a play action shot. Again, this is basically 4 verts, each of those receivers is getting to a landmark, it's just coming at the defense from a different look.
This might be my favorite play of all I watched, just so much going on, and yet, so simple. It looks like Power Right out of 11 personnel, but Kittley added a little eye candy with the motion by the outside receiver. It actually looks like an RPO which I imagine the read is based on the movement from the OLB/S, the moment he cheats in with the motion, Zappe pulls it and hits the receiver for first down.
I really only put this next play in here to show that Kittley uses his TEs for more than blockers and boot plays. #88 is the usual TE that will play on the line and as an H back, but Kittley uses him here as another slot receiver. You can still see the spacing principals that our key to Kittely's schemes, but this results in an east first down against what appears to be quarters coverage.
But, Kittley has those play action goal line plays in his bag for the TE as well. Unique formation that makes the defense think, a really smart blocking scheme, and giving his guy the opportunity to win in space. This play is very similar to the Lincoln Riley screen I discussed earlier that's effective against Man Coverage. Instead of just having the receivers block their defenders straight up, which is how you usually see these bubbleish type screen plays run, Kittley has the #3 receiver set a pick/block the TEs man which eliminates that angle and gives the receiver a chance to score.
It's no secret around here that I preferred Sonny Cumbie as the OC under McGuire, but I want it to be clear that I never meant to insult what Kittley is capable of with a Texas Tech offense. Most of my Cumbie preference had a lot to do with things besides Xs and Os, and I figured that most of the OCs would be a wash in terms of actual production. I still feel that way to an extent, but after watching Kittley's offenses closely, I underestimated what he can do here. He is excellent at "scheming wins" which is what I liked most about the change from Yost to Cumbie, but he also is trying to scheme BIG wins. I mean that he is not trying to get to 2nd and 5 and then 3rd and 2, he is going for your jugular each and every play. If the defense missteps, falls asleep, or isn't prepared for a snap, Kittley's unit is going for six. I love that mentality, that's why WKU was never truly out of a game. It may take some patience and time for him to adjust, it might not, but Joey McGuire made the right call here. The Texas Tech offense is back.
Even with the similarities, there’s a lot here to look over, so I’m going to divide the passing game today, and breakdown the running game next.
There has been a lot made of just how much Kittley threw the ball at WKU, and, after looking through some analytics and watching the games, it's easy to see why... they were really really good at it. A fair criticism of Kliff's time here is that is sometimes seemed like he almost forgot running the ball was an option, I don't think that's Kittley's problem. I think he is, above all, an offensive pragmatist, he didn't run the ball very much because he knew his offense was more effective through the air.
Look at these passing numbers below, especially incredible considering how one dimensional they were...
Explosiveness measures the average EPA on plays which were marked as successful. It uses this site's EPA implementation (known as PPA).
Predicted Points Added (PPA) is the same thing as EPA. There are various different models for calculating EPA and EPA. PPA uses this site's custom EPA model.
- Expected Points Added (EPA) uses Expected Points to measure the outcome of a play. It takes the EP value from the beginning of a play (e.g. 2nd and 5 at the 50) and subtracts it from the EP value resulting from the play (e.g. rush for 10 yards results in 1st and 10 from the 40).
- the offense scored
- 1st downs which gain at least 50% of the yards to go
- 2nd downs which gain at least 70% of the yards to go
- 3rd and 4th downs which gain at least 100% of the yards to go
Like I said earlier, it's hard to argue with the results. There were times when their inability to run the ball hurt them, situationally, but I do think that issue is a little overblown considering the overall success of the offense.
The table below are the analytics from Football Outsiders, obviously they include both passing and rushing, but It's important to see the overall effectiveness of this offense that was completely one dimensional most of the time.
| Offense Fremeau Efficiency Index ratings (OFEI) represent the per-possession scoring advantage each offense would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. | .84 (19th) |
| Offensive drive efficiency (ODE) is scoring value gained or lost per offensive drive | 1.12 (6th) |
| Offensive points per drive (OPD) is total net points scored per offensive drive. | 3.38 (5th) |
| Offensive available yards percentage (OAY) is drive yards gained divided by drive yards available based on starting field position. | .633 (2nd) |
| Offensive yards per play (OPP) is drive yards gained per offensive play. | 7.07 (5th) |
| Touchdown rate (OTD) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a touchdown. | .423 (6th) |
| Value drive rate (OVD) is the percentage of offensive drives that conclude with a drive end value greater than the drive start value based on field position. | .526 (5th) |
| First down rate (OFD) is the percentage of offensive drives that earn at least one first down. | .803 (8th) |
| Busted drive rate (OBD) is the percentage of offensive drives that gain zero or negative yards. | .080 (25th) |
| Turnover rate (OTO) is the percentage of offensive drives that end with an interception or fumble. | .102 (49th) |
I mean, just look at that. Kittley basically led the Hilltoppers to a top ten offense a year after they ranked 120th and 78th in 2019. All the while, not being able to run the ball with any consistency. He just figured out a way to make it work.
The turnover rate and busted drive rate, although not horrible, is slightly concerning, and that is where the reliance on passing shows up. Quick three and outs after a few incompletions, interceptions, sacks, sack fumbles, all normal occurrences on passing plays, just magnified when you have to throw it as much as they did last season.
| Sack Rate: Unadjusted sack rate for all non-garbage time pass attempts. | 2.2% (1st) |
| Standard Downs Sack Rate: Unadjusted sack rate for standard downs pass attempts. | 2.4% (5th) |
| Passing Downs Sack Rate: Unadjusted sack rate for passing downs pass attempts. | 2.4% (6th) |
These three numbers may be the most impressive of all of the ones listed. These numbers are not adjusted for pass attempts or run v pass percentages, so, for as often as Kittley called pass plays, he and Hamby did an exceptional job at keeping Zappe upright. One thing you'll notice in the film is how well this WKU offensive line communicated. They were almost never fooled by stunts and/or twists. It's very impressive.
To the film...
The first play is a perfect example of that offensive line communication I just referenced, UTSA sends 5 and no busted assignments. That's crucial because it gives this play time to develop, a theme for all of Kittley's passing concepts is the stress it puts defenders in, and, therefore, the space that is created. This is not a complicated route combo or coverage by UTSA (Man Free), but the deep routes give the slot receiver and Zappe plenty of room to operate in the middle of the field and convert the 3rd down.
Speaking of space and stress, the second play is another great example. Indiana is playing man and Kittley forces every defender to do their job, which creates the space necessary to run this "screen." This play is a Lincoln Riley favorite, and feels completely illegal, but the receiver catches the ball behind the LOS and runs him man right into a waiting blocker. Even if it wasn't behind the LOS, it's timed so well it would still be legal. This is called "scheming wins" and Kittley does that for his unit over and over.
Next play is the same situation, same general scheme, but a different play. Instead of running the pick/screen, he just schemes up the amount of space needed to convert this first down. UTSA is blitzing and playing Man Free again, but the safety is way off the ball, it is 3rd and 15, knowing this Kittely designs every route to create space and time for the shallow cross.
You know what helps to beat the drop 8 coverage? Make those 8 think and cover every inch of the field, Kittley is an expert at this. The presnap motion freezes the defense, and then stretches them horizontally, after that, it's 4 verticals which challenges the defense, you guessed it, vertically. The three receivers look slightly frenetic at the snap, but they all have their landmarks on the field to get to in order to create the appropriate amount of space. The alignment just tricks it up enough to create space in the zone by confusing the play side safeties and corner.
Here's some more of the same from Kittley, and it's equally awesome. We've got a unique formation out of 12 personne, both TEs and a WR lined up on the right and one TE is covered up to allow the backside receiver to go in motion. This looks like a jet sweep all the way, WKU sets up with numbers and a lead blocker, instead, it's a play action shot. Again, this is basically 4 verts, each of those receivers is getting to a landmark, it's just coming at the defense from a different look.
This might be my favorite play of all I watched, just so much going on, and yet, so simple. It looks like Power Right out of 11 personnel, but Kittley added a little eye candy with the motion by the outside receiver. It actually looks like an RPO which I imagine the read is based on the movement from the OLB/S, the moment he cheats in with the motion, Zappe pulls it and hits the receiver for first down.
I really only put this next play in here to show that Kittley uses his TEs for more than blockers and boot plays. #88 is the usual TE that will play on the line and as an H back, but Kittley uses him here as another slot receiver. You can still see the spacing principals that our key to Kittely's schemes, but this results in an east first down against what appears to be quarters coverage.
But, Kittley has those play action goal line plays in his bag for the TE as well. Unique formation that makes the defense think, a really smart blocking scheme, and giving his guy the opportunity to win in space. This play is very similar to the Lincoln Riley screen I discussed earlier that's effective against Man Coverage. Instead of just having the receivers block their defenders straight up, which is how you usually see these bubbleish type screen plays run, Kittley has the #3 receiver set a pick/block the TEs man which eliminates that angle and gives the receiver a chance to score.
It's no secret around here that I preferred Sonny Cumbie as the OC under McGuire, but I want it to be clear that I never meant to insult what Kittley is capable of with a Texas Tech offense. Most of my Cumbie preference had a lot to do with things besides Xs and Os, and I figured that most of the OCs would be a wash in terms of actual production. I still feel that way to an extent, but after watching Kittley's offenses closely, I underestimated what he can do here. He is excellent at "scheming wins" which is what I liked most about the change from Yost to Cumbie, but he also is trying to scheme BIG wins. I mean that he is not trying to get to 2nd and 5 and then 3rd and 2, he is going for your jugular each and every play. If the defense missteps, falls asleep, or isn't prepared for a snap, Kittley's unit is going for six. I love that mentality, that's why WKU was never truly out of a game. It may take some patience and time for him to adjust, it might not, but Joey McGuire made the right call here. The Texas Tech offense is back.
