Baylor -3.5 at WVU
Why is it that, when we have our bye week, we play a team that will be coming off 9 days' rest? Does every other Big 12 team have a stunted bye week? I doubt it.
I can't figure either of these teams out. Baylor's defense has taken a major step back from last year. Their offense is pretty good, just not very explosive. They should be able to score some points against this WVU defense, though. It's been awful, although I expect them to look better when they have an extra few days to prepare and they aren't playing Texas in Austin.
Baylor is thought to be a "good" Big 12 team. They are playing the "worst" Big 12 team (albeit on the road). And the betting market is giving Baylor just a 60% chance of winning. This conference just doesn't have much separation. We are going to be really small favorites against WVU next Saturday.
Also... Dave Aranda is a weird ass dude. What the hell does this even mean?
Prediction: WVU 27 - Baylor 24
OU -7 or -7.5 v Kansas
To put this line in perspective, when Tech lost in Lawrence as a 4ish-point favorite, it was the shortest line for Kansas football in almost a decade. Now they are just 7-point dogs on the road in Norman and that's with the expectation that their back-up QB is playing. This line would've been in the low 30s in the summer. It's crazy.
Kansas' offense is scoring 3.3 points per drive, which is 15th in the country. Jalon Daniels -- who was unstoppable going into last weekend -- gets knocked out of the game pretty early and the backup (who at one time started over Daniels) played really well.
OU's showing last weekend was an embarrassment. Gabriel being hurt is not an excuse. QBs get hurt in college football. In a healthy college football progrum, one QB going down should not mean you have to scrap your offense and run the single wing with TEs and RBs taking snaps behind the center. They gained 150 yards and had RBs throwing chest pass interceptions. Ridiculous.
OU's defense got obliterated, too. Allowed over 7.5 yards per play. Gave up TDs on 7 out of 9 possessions in the middle part of that game.
All of that said, I currently have a sizeable position on OU -7. It's going to be the Sideline Provisions Banger of the Week (1-2 on the year.... betting is hard). There are still some -7s out there, but it'll end up closing -7.5 or more. OU's offense is still very dangerous with Dillon Gabriel at QB. And I predict KU's offense with Jason Bean at QB will come back to earth. As crazy as it sounds, Venables' job will be in jeopardy if he loses this game.
Getting OU, coming off a 50-point loss to UT (buy low) with their #1 QB, playing a darling Kansas team (sell high) with their back-up QB... in Norman... and only laying 7 points. Sign me up.
Prediction: OU 35 - Kansas 24
Texas -16 v. Iowa State
I took Texas -14 -125. If this gets back up to +17, I'll buy back on Iowa State. Texas is for real. And by for real, I mean, they easily have the best players in the conference, but will still go 8-4 or thereabouts. I mentioned earlier that there isn't much separation in this conference, but that's with the caveat that UT would easily be favored over anyone in this league at a neutral site by around a TD. Having elite skill guys and an extremely disruptive front is a recipe for winning a lot of games.
However... this will be Quinn Ewers' first time to see the vaunted Iowa State 3-3-5 cloud defense. And it will give a young QB problems. Especially young QBs with bleached mullets that are making 7 figures. The total in this game is 49.5 points. That's a slow-paced NFL game. I see this being a slog, where UT is only up by a possession or two late in the 4th quarter.
Iowa State's defense is allowing just 1.3 points per drive, which is 14th in the country. Only allowing TDs on 17% of opponents' drives, which is top 20 nationally. This is a match-up that pits two of the best units in the country against each other (UT's O v. Iowa State's D); unfortunately, Iowa State's offense is -- thanks to the Behren Morton experiment -- easily the worst in the league. They aren't going to win this game and I'll be using UT as a pick in my survivor league.
Prediction: Texas 33 - Iowa State 16
TCU -4.5 v. Oklahoma State
Just plugged in a bet on Oklahoma State +4.5.
I wasn't that impressed with TCU last week. Their defense should not have allowed KU's back-up QB to rack up over 350 yards on 40 plays in one half of football. If Jaden Daniels doesn't fumble at the goal line... who knows how this game turns out. TCU's 5-0. Their offense has top 10 metrics. But they've played, maybe, the easiest schedule of any P5 team thus far. Their defense is objectively bad. Over 80% of opponents' drives result in at least one first down, which is essentially worst in the country.
On the other side, Oklahoma State is just a solid team with one of the best defensive line's in the country, a veteran QB, and a salty group of WRs. I would have these two teams about even, with TCU -3 or so due to playing at home.
Oklahoma State will be in the driver's seat to play in the conference championship game if they can bank road wins in Waco and Ft. Worth.
Prediction: Oklahoma State 35 - TCU 34
Other Games:
Bama -7.5 at Tennessee
Alabama will get Bryce Young back this week. Tennessee's offense is really good. It's top 3 in the country right now on paper. Their QB (Hendon Hooker) runs around with great success, but he also takes a lot of hits. I have bet Tennessee +7.5. I think it's a coin flip at -7, but that there is a very real chance Hooker gets knocked out of this game, which would make Bama -7 a good bet. I envision talking myself into Alabama -7 at some point later in the week.
Mississippi State -7 at Kentucky
Mississippi State is for real. I took a flyer on them this week at 150/1 to win the national championship. Their defense is STOUT. Being a 7-point road favorite at Kentucky (who will bet getting Will Levis back) is a serious sign of respect for the Maroons.
Bets locked in:
SMU -12.5 -105 v. Navy
SMU / Navy O57 -105
CMU / Akron O58.5 -110
Texas -14 -125
OU -7 -112
Michigan -7 -105 v. Penn State (I don't like this one anymore FWIW)
Illinois +7 -121 v. Minnesota
Syracuse -3 -105 v. NC State (Devin Leary is @dead)
WKU -7 -105 v. MTSU (I bet these guys literally every week)
Ok. State +4.5 -105
Georgia -37 -105 v. Vandy
Tx State / Troy O47.5 -110
Tennessee +7.5 -105 (I think I want Bama -7 now instead)
Michigan State +7.5 -113 v. Wisconsin
Arizona +15 -105 v. Washington
Colorado State +10.5 -105 v. Utah State
Florida -2.5 -105 v. LSU (LSU is horrible.. Brian Kelly would be on the hot seat if they had lost to Auburn like they should have)
Miss State -6.5 -105 v. Kentucky
Nebraska +13 -110 v. Purdue
Florida State +3.5 -105 v. Clemson
North Carolina -6.5 v. Duke (North Carolina is actually pretty good)
USC +3.5 -110 v. Utah
SJSU -6.5 -125 v. Fresno
Nevada / Hawaii U50 -105
Owned and operated by Red Raiders, Sideline Provisions offers one of a kind items you can’t find anywhere else in the world. They are the original creator of the Guns Up logo and are the only place to get Dirk West original pieces.
Why is it that, when we have our bye week, we play a team that will be coming off 9 days' rest? Does every other Big 12 team have a stunted bye week? I doubt it.
I can't figure either of these teams out. Baylor's defense has taken a major step back from last year. Their offense is pretty good, just not very explosive. They should be able to score some points against this WVU defense, though. It's been awful, although I expect them to look better when they have an extra few days to prepare and they aren't playing Texas in Austin.
Baylor is thought to be a "good" Big 12 team. They are playing the "worst" Big 12 team (albeit on the road). And the betting market is giving Baylor just a 60% chance of winning. This conference just doesn't have much separation. We are going to be really small favorites against WVU next Saturday.
Also... Dave Aranda is a weird ass dude. What the hell does this even mean?
Prediction: WVU 27 - Baylor 24
OU -7 or -7.5 v Kansas
To put this line in perspective, when Tech lost in Lawrence as a 4ish-point favorite, it was the shortest line for Kansas football in almost a decade. Now they are just 7-point dogs on the road in Norman and that's with the expectation that their back-up QB is playing. This line would've been in the low 30s in the summer. It's crazy.
Kansas' offense is scoring 3.3 points per drive, which is 15th in the country. Jalon Daniels -- who was unstoppable going into last weekend -- gets knocked out of the game pretty early and the backup (who at one time started over Daniels) played really well.
OU's showing last weekend was an embarrassment. Gabriel being hurt is not an excuse. QBs get hurt in college football. In a healthy college football progrum, one QB going down should not mean you have to scrap your offense and run the single wing with TEs and RBs taking snaps behind the center. They gained 150 yards and had RBs throwing chest pass interceptions. Ridiculous.
OU's defense got obliterated, too. Allowed over 7.5 yards per play. Gave up TDs on 7 out of 9 possessions in the middle part of that game.
All of that said, I currently have a sizeable position on OU -7. It's going to be the Sideline Provisions Banger of the Week (1-2 on the year.... betting is hard). There are still some -7s out there, but it'll end up closing -7.5 or more. OU's offense is still very dangerous with Dillon Gabriel at QB. And I predict KU's offense with Jason Bean at QB will come back to earth. As crazy as it sounds, Venables' job will be in jeopardy if he loses this game.
Getting OU, coming off a 50-point loss to UT (buy low) with their #1 QB, playing a darling Kansas team (sell high) with their back-up QB... in Norman... and only laying 7 points. Sign me up.
Prediction: OU 35 - Kansas 24
Texas -16 v. Iowa State
I took Texas -14 -125. If this gets back up to +17, I'll buy back on Iowa State. Texas is for real. And by for real, I mean, they easily have the best players in the conference, but will still go 8-4 or thereabouts. I mentioned earlier that there isn't much separation in this conference, but that's with the caveat that UT would easily be favored over anyone in this league at a neutral site by around a TD. Having elite skill guys and an extremely disruptive front is a recipe for winning a lot of games.
However... this will be Quinn Ewers' first time to see the vaunted Iowa State 3-3-5 cloud defense. And it will give a young QB problems. Especially young QBs with bleached mullets that are making 7 figures. The total in this game is 49.5 points. That's a slow-paced NFL game. I see this being a slog, where UT is only up by a possession or two late in the 4th quarter.
Iowa State's defense is allowing just 1.3 points per drive, which is 14th in the country. Only allowing TDs on 17% of opponents' drives, which is top 20 nationally. This is a match-up that pits two of the best units in the country against each other (UT's O v. Iowa State's D); unfortunately, Iowa State's offense is -- thanks to the Behren Morton experiment -- easily the worst in the league. They aren't going to win this game and I'll be using UT as a pick in my survivor league.
Prediction: Texas 33 - Iowa State 16
TCU -4.5 v. Oklahoma State
Just plugged in a bet on Oklahoma State +4.5.
I wasn't that impressed with TCU last week. Their defense should not have allowed KU's back-up QB to rack up over 350 yards on 40 plays in one half of football. If Jaden Daniels doesn't fumble at the goal line... who knows how this game turns out. TCU's 5-0. Their offense has top 10 metrics. But they've played, maybe, the easiest schedule of any P5 team thus far. Their defense is objectively bad. Over 80% of opponents' drives result in at least one first down, which is essentially worst in the country.
On the other side, Oklahoma State is just a solid team with one of the best defensive line's in the country, a veteran QB, and a salty group of WRs. I would have these two teams about even, with TCU -3 or so due to playing at home.
Oklahoma State will be in the driver's seat to play in the conference championship game if they can bank road wins in Waco and Ft. Worth.
Prediction: Oklahoma State 35 - TCU 34
Other Games:
Bama -7.5 at Tennessee
Alabama will get Bryce Young back this week. Tennessee's offense is really good. It's top 3 in the country right now on paper. Their QB (Hendon Hooker) runs around with great success, but he also takes a lot of hits. I have bet Tennessee +7.5. I think it's a coin flip at -7, but that there is a very real chance Hooker gets knocked out of this game, which would make Bama -7 a good bet. I envision talking myself into Alabama -7 at some point later in the week.
Mississippi State -7 at Kentucky
Mississippi State is for real. I took a flyer on them this week at 150/1 to win the national championship. Their defense is STOUT. Being a 7-point road favorite at Kentucky (who will bet getting Will Levis back) is a serious sign of respect for the Maroons.
Bets locked in:
SMU -12.5 -105 v. Navy
SMU / Navy O57 -105
CMU / Akron O58.5 -110
Texas -14 -125
OU -7 -112
Michigan -7 -105 v. Penn State (I don't like this one anymore FWIW)
Illinois +7 -121 v. Minnesota
Syracuse -3 -105 v. NC State (Devin Leary is @dead)
WKU -7 -105 v. MTSU (I bet these guys literally every week)
Ok. State +4.5 -105
Georgia -37 -105 v. Vandy
Tx State / Troy O47.5 -110
Tennessee +7.5 -105 (I think I want Bama -7 now instead)
Michigan State +7.5 -113 v. Wisconsin
Arizona +15 -105 v. Washington
Colorado State +10.5 -105 v. Utah State
Florida -2.5 -105 v. LSU (LSU is horrible.. Brian Kelly would be on the hot seat if they had lost to Auburn like they should have)
Miss State -6.5 -105 v. Kentucky
Nebraska +13 -110 v. Purdue
Florida State +3.5 -105 v. Clemson
North Carolina -6.5 v. Duke (North Carolina is actually pretty good)
USC +3.5 -110 v. Utah
SJSU -6.5 -125 v. Fresno
Nevada / Hawaii U50 -105
Owned and operated by Red Raiders, Sideline Provisions offers one of a kind items you can’t find anywhere else in the world. They are the original creator of the Guns Up logo and are the only place to get Dirk West original pieces.
