TCU -3.5 v. Kansas State
The betting market loves Kansas State. Thinks they are the 2nd or 3rd best team in the Big 12 right now. This line opened around TCU -5 (which was their closing line last week v. Oklahoma State) but has been bet down to where I'm really tempted to take the horny toad team. If this gets to TCU -3, I'll feel compelled to back them.
TCU is good. It's unfortunate, but true. They have a savvy, veteran QB that can really run with the football. They have a top WR in the country. Good playcaller (didn't McGuire peg Garrett Riley as his #1 OC choice?.. or am I making that up?). Their defense is a little suspect, but it's close to being top half in the league, which is "good enough."
If TCU wins Saturday, it's going to be nearly impossible for them to not be playing in the Big 12 championship. They would have to lose a home game to Texas Tech or something.
I'm just not a big believer in Kansas State right now. I think they are a top half Big 12 team -- not top 3. Their defense played really well against Iowa State and Texas Tech -- that's nothing to brag about. Their offense is probably around the 70th best in the country right now. It is unique, though. Run heavy, but explosive with playmakers at RB and QB.
I just don't know how to peg this Kansas State team, and I think this being a night time kickoff was a bit of a bad break for them. TCU has been on a tough little run, when you consider OU at home, playing on the road at college game day, and then a big comeback home OT thriller against an undefeated conference team. Playing this at night will probably kill any hangover TCU might have had.
Prediction: TCU 33 - Kansas State 27
Texas -6.5 v. Oklahoma State
This line opened around Texas -4. One guy in the betting world said he would make it UT -7 and, within abut 2 minutes, the line went up to UT -6.5.
UT and Quinn Ewers' struggles last week v. Iowa State's vaunted 3-3-5 cloud defense was really predictable with hindsight. UT honestly could have lost that game. They have the best players in this conference and it's not even close. But they aren't going to play for the conference title. They are going to lose 2 more games to teams they shouldn't because that's the identity of their progrum.
I think there are only 4 offenses in the country right now that I would take over UT -- Ohio State, Georgia, USC, and Tennessee. Oklahoma State's defense has a tough task considering how leaky it has looked the last two weeks against offenses that aren't near as good as what they will be up against Saturday.
Spencer Sanders' health is an issue and Gundy is being quiet on that front (according to Golan and Beadles, Sanders is "pure trash" so this may not matter). If he's hurt, this could get ugly.
Prediction: Texas 34 - Oklahoma State 27
Baylor -7.5 v. Kansas
I'm a notorious hater of Kansas at this point. I think their defense is terrible. And they score soooooo many points relative to their yards gained -- it's historically unsustainable. But like clock work, I'm pretty sure they scored around 10 points per 100 yards gained again last week, albeit against a turrible OU defense.
Is Shapen healthy? I don't know.
At some point, Tech may need to consider accepting a personal foul / targeting penalty on a QB slide if it means knocking the other team's QB out of the game. I would trade one half of Reggie Pearson for a dazed and confused JT Daniels on Saturday.
This feels like a "get right" game for Baylor. Their offense is really intriguing to me. The under center power run stuff, mixed with these deep shots and good skill guys. It puts up points and numbers, too -- TDs on almost 40% of their possessions, which is top 30 in the country. I bet it gives us problems.
I'm not even sure if Shapen being hurt is that big of a deal Saturday (he's apparently a "flaming pile of garbage" according to many RRS staff members). Kyron Drones -- their back-up QB -- is a really good athlete. He could probably be effective against Kansas if Shapen needs time to heal up.
Kansas offense is good. Very good, actually. It's scoring more points than it should, though. And it has a back-up QB now. Their defense is awful. I'm selling Kansas stock like crazy for the 5th week in a row it seems like.
Prediction: Baylor 37 - Kansas 22
Other Games:
James Madison -12.5 v. Marshall:
Pretty sure Henry Colombi got benched last week. It's the only reason I'm mentioning this game. Think about all the games that he's started the last few years. Reminiscing about Tech QBs post-Pat Mahomes literally makes me want to throw up.
Rice -3 at La Tech:
This is sort of a boring week in college football if I'm mentioning this game. Sonny Cumbie is a 3-point home dog to the little Rice Owls. That's... well, not good.
Cumbie has been starting our 4th or 5th string guy from last year at QB. The La Tech job was not a ready-made winner. He's got his work cut out for him there if he's a home dog to freakin' Rice.
LSU -2 v. Ole Miss:
I tried to make this game interest me -- it just doesn't. LSU was +3 on some look-ahead lines for this game a couple weeks ago. They opened +2 on Sunday night and are now small favorites. Kudos to you if you have LSU + something here.
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After last week's win, our game of the week bet is 2-2 on the season. Just grinding.
This week's pick is BYU -6 against Liberty. Liberty is going to start Charlie Brewer at QB. To quote a great football mind (Taylor Beadles), Charlie Brewer is "the worst QB to ever pick up a pigskin." I sort of agree.
Brewer started last year's "Holy War" game between Utah and BYU. It was a beat down, with BYU winning handily and Brewer playing terrible.
This is also a good "buy low" spot for BYU, who isn't playing a major P5 team for the first time in a few weeks. They are also starting to get healthy at WR.
I like BYU here and have bet them -5.5 already. I would bet it up to -6.5.
The betting market loves Kansas State. Thinks they are the 2nd or 3rd best team in the Big 12 right now. This line opened around TCU -5 (which was their closing line last week v. Oklahoma State) but has been bet down to where I'm really tempted to take the horny toad team. If this gets to TCU -3, I'll feel compelled to back them.
TCU is good. It's unfortunate, but true. They have a savvy, veteran QB that can really run with the football. They have a top WR in the country. Good playcaller (didn't McGuire peg Garrett Riley as his #1 OC choice?.. or am I making that up?). Their defense is a little suspect, but it's close to being top half in the league, which is "good enough."
If TCU wins Saturday, it's going to be nearly impossible for them to not be playing in the Big 12 championship. They would have to lose a home game to Texas Tech or something.
I'm just not a big believer in Kansas State right now. I think they are a top half Big 12 team -- not top 3. Their defense played really well against Iowa State and Texas Tech -- that's nothing to brag about. Their offense is probably around the 70th best in the country right now. It is unique, though. Run heavy, but explosive with playmakers at RB and QB.
I just don't know how to peg this Kansas State team, and I think this being a night time kickoff was a bit of a bad break for them. TCU has been on a tough little run, when you consider OU at home, playing on the road at college game day, and then a big comeback home OT thriller against an undefeated conference team. Playing this at night will probably kill any hangover TCU might have had.
Prediction: TCU 33 - Kansas State 27
Texas -6.5 v. Oklahoma State
This line opened around Texas -4. One guy in the betting world said he would make it UT -7 and, within abut 2 minutes, the line went up to UT -6.5.
UT and Quinn Ewers' struggles last week v. Iowa State's vaunted 3-3-5 cloud defense was really predictable with hindsight. UT honestly could have lost that game. They have the best players in this conference and it's not even close. But they aren't going to play for the conference title. They are going to lose 2 more games to teams they shouldn't because that's the identity of their progrum.
I think there are only 4 offenses in the country right now that I would take over UT -- Ohio State, Georgia, USC, and Tennessee. Oklahoma State's defense has a tough task considering how leaky it has looked the last two weeks against offenses that aren't near as good as what they will be up against Saturday.
Spencer Sanders' health is an issue and Gundy is being quiet on that front (according to Golan and Beadles, Sanders is "pure trash" so this may not matter). If he's hurt, this could get ugly.
Prediction: Texas 34 - Oklahoma State 27
Baylor -7.5 v. Kansas
I'm a notorious hater of Kansas at this point. I think their defense is terrible. And they score soooooo many points relative to their yards gained -- it's historically unsustainable. But like clock work, I'm pretty sure they scored around 10 points per 100 yards gained again last week, albeit against a turrible OU defense.
Is Shapen healthy? I don't know.
At some point, Tech may need to consider accepting a personal foul / targeting penalty on a QB slide if it means knocking the other team's QB out of the game. I would trade one half of Reggie Pearson for a dazed and confused JT Daniels on Saturday.
This feels like a "get right" game for Baylor. Their offense is really intriguing to me. The under center power run stuff, mixed with these deep shots and good skill guys. It puts up points and numbers, too -- TDs on almost 40% of their possessions, which is top 30 in the country. I bet it gives us problems.
I'm not even sure if Shapen being hurt is that big of a deal Saturday (he's apparently a "flaming pile of garbage" according to many RRS staff members). Kyron Drones -- their back-up QB -- is a really good athlete. He could probably be effective against Kansas if Shapen needs time to heal up.
Kansas offense is good. Very good, actually. It's scoring more points than it should, though. And it has a back-up QB now. Their defense is awful. I'm selling Kansas stock like crazy for the 5th week in a row it seems like.
Prediction: Baylor 37 - Kansas 22
Other Games:
James Madison -12.5 v. Marshall:
Pretty sure Henry Colombi got benched last week. It's the only reason I'm mentioning this game. Think about all the games that he's started the last few years. Reminiscing about Tech QBs post-Pat Mahomes literally makes me want to throw up.
Rice -3 at La Tech:
This is sort of a boring week in college football if I'm mentioning this game. Sonny Cumbie is a 3-point home dog to the little Rice Owls. That's... well, not good.
Cumbie has been starting our 4th or 5th string guy from last year at QB. The La Tech job was not a ready-made winner. He's got his work cut out for him there if he's a home dog to freakin' Rice.
LSU -2 v. Ole Miss:
I tried to make this game interest me -- it just doesn't. LSU was +3 on some look-ahead lines for this game a couple weeks ago. They opened +2 on Sunday night and are now small favorites. Kudos to you if you have LSU + something here.
Sideline Provisions "Banger" of the Week:
Owned and operated by Red Raiders, Sideline Provisions offers one of a kind items you can’t find anywhere else in the world. They are the original creator of the Guns Up logo and are the only place to get Dirk West original pieces.
After last week's win, our game of the week bet is 2-2 on the season. Just grinding.
This week's pick is BYU -6 against Liberty. Liberty is going to start Charlie Brewer at QB. To quote a great football mind (Taylor Beadles), Charlie Brewer is "the worst QB to ever pick up a pigskin." I sort of agree.
Brewer started last year's "Holy War" game between Utah and BYU. It was a beat down, with BYU winning handily and Brewer playing terrible.
This is also a good "buy low" spot for BYU, who isn't playing a major P5 team for the first time in a few weeks. They are also starting to get healthy at WR.
I like BYU here and have bet them -5.5 already. I would bet it up to -6.5.
