Oklahoma -8 at West Virginia
This game could see both teams score in the 40s, as this match-up pits two of the worst Big 12 defenses up against two of the best offenses.
West Virginia is in that awful position of having a coach no one likes with a contract that makes the costs of moving on prohibitive. It's hard to really get a feel for what that does to a team's focus and motivation as they grind through a season. It's probably similar to my motivation level to keep writing about the upcoming Big 12 games when our fanbase has seemingly moved its focus from Tech football to basketball games against over-matched SWAC opponents.
Prediction: Oklahoma 38 - West Virginia 35
Texas -7 v. TCU
A common theme in these posts has been the talent level of Texas compared to the rest of the conference. And the betting market continues to reinforce that. UT is a 7-point home favorite over an undefeated team that's currently slated to be in the College Football Playoff. Of course, they would be home favorites over every team in the country save the top 4 in the SEC.
Texas does have really good players. It's true. But I am curious to see if their defense can hold up against TCU's offense the same way Tech's did last Saturday. We have the right pieces to jack with TCU's offense -- Tyree Wilson + good man-to-man cover guys. Tech also benefited from a hobbled Quintin Johnston (who might still be hobbled). Personally, I don't think UT's defense will have anywhere near the same level of success.
On the other side of the ball, UT should be able to put up yards and points in bunches. I'm thinking close to 40 in a relatively high-possession game. They also probably won't get bent over by the refs in Austin the same way Tech did in Fort Worth.
The fairy-tale start to Sonny Dykes' season ends Saturday.
Prediction: Texas 38 - TCU 30
Iowa State -1.5 at Oklahoma State
Man, Oklahoma State's season has gone to shit. Two weeks ago, they were feeling really good about themselves. Now, they are missing their most important player and have been demolished two weeks in a row by the state of Kansas. To make matters worse, Spencer Sanders still isn't healthy -- Iowa State being favored in Stillwater makes that much clear.
They also have the most mind-numbingly conservative coach in the country, which is fine when your players are better than what's on the other sideline. But when they aren't or the playing field is equal... it puts you at a pretty big disadvantage.
Iowa State finds itself somehow with a QB advantage and an even bigger advantage on defense in this one. Unfortunately for Tech, that Oklahoma State defense that Behren Morton & Co. put up big numbers against a few weeks ago is shaping into one of the worst units in the conference. They have essentially allowed the most explosive plays of any P5 team. Losing all of those guys on defense and Jim Knowles to Ohio State set them back big time. I hope we can retain enough of our secondary this off-season to keep something similar from happening.
This is a snoozer of a game. It makes me sick to even have to make a prediction.
Prediction: Iowa State 24 - Oklahoma State 23
Baylor -2.5 v. Kansas State
Baylor had another impressive showing on the road last week in Norman. Kansas State played okay in a forgivable loss to the most talented team in the conference.
These are the two most well-rounded teams in the Big 12 when you consider TCU's issues on defense and UT's perpetual ability to underachieve. Malik Knowles is an important player for KSU, and he's apparently dinged up but expected to play.
I'm interested to see how Baylor's wide-zone scheme fairs against KSU's really solid front. On the other side of the ball, KSU isn't set up to take advantage of Baylor's only real weakness (the secondary).
With the personnel and scheme match-ups slightly favoring Baylor plus this being in Waco, I'm inclined to pick Baylor, but don't feel great about it.
Prediction: Baylor 28 - Kansas State 24
Sideline "Banger" of the Week:
Welp, Clemson laid a massive egg last week, bringing the season record to 3-4. Not good. It's really hard to pick against widely-available lines on Wednesday. Even harder when I'm limited to sides and not totals (no one wants to bet on the under in a mid-week MAC game).
It's back to the drawing board.. I'm going to keep it in conference and pick Texas -7. I predict it ends up closing above 7.5. TCU is going to have a lot of trouble stopping UT's offense. And if they get behind early, their OL will have trouble keeping Duggan clean.
This game could see both teams score in the 40s, as this match-up pits two of the worst Big 12 defenses up against two of the best offenses.
West Virginia is in that awful position of having a coach no one likes with a contract that makes the costs of moving on prohibitive. It's hard to really get a feel for what that does to a team's focus and motivation as they grind through a season. It's probably similar to my motivation level to keep writing about the upcoming Big 12 games when our fanbase has seemingly moved its focus from Tech football to basketball games against over-matched SWAC opponents.
Prediction: Oklahoma 38 - West Virginia 35
Texas -7 v. TCU
A common theme in these posts has been the talent level of Texas compared to the rest of the conference. And the betting market continues to reinforce that. UT is a 7-point home favorite over an undefeated team that's currently slated to be in the College Football Playoff. Of course, they would be home favorites over every team in the country save the top 4 in the SEC.
Texas does have really good players. It's true. But I am curious to see if their defense can hold up against TCU's offense the same way Tech's did last Saturday. We have the right pieces to jack with TCU's offense -- Tyree Wilson + good man-to-man cover guys. Tech also benefited from a hobbled Quintin Johnston (who might still be hobbled). Personally, I don't think UT's defense will have anywhere near the same level of success.
On the other side of the ball, UT should be able to put up yards and points in bunches. I'm thinking close to 40 in a relatively high-possession game. They also probably won't get bent over by the refs in Austin the same way Tech did in Fort Worth.
The fairy-tale start to Sonny Dykes' season ends Saturday.
Prediction: Texas 38 - TCU 30
Iowa State -1.5 at Oklahoma State
Man, Oklahoma State's season has gone to shit. Two weeks ago, they were feeling really good about themselves. Now, they are missing their most important player and have been demolished two weeks in a row by the state of Kansas. To make matters worse, Spencer Sanders still isn't healthy -- Iowa State being favored in Stillwater makes that much clear.
They also have the most mind-numbingly conservative coach in the country, which is fine when your players are better than what's on the other sideline. But when they aren't or the playing field is equal... it puts you at a pretty big disadvantage.
Iowa State finds itself somehow with a QB advantage and an even bigger advantage on defense in this one. Unfortunately for Tech, that Oklahoma State defense that Behren Morton & Co. put up big numbers against a few weeks ago is shaping into one of the worst units in the conference. They have essentially allowed the most explosive plays of any P5 team. Losing all of those guys on defense and Jim Knowles to Ohio State set them back big time. I hope we can retain enough of our secondary this off-season to keep something similar from happening.
This is a snoozer of a game. It makes me sick to even have to make a prediction.
Prediction: Iowa State 24 - Oklahoma State 23
Baylor -2.5 v. Kansas State
Baylor had another impressive showing on the road last week in Norman. Kansas State played okay in a forgivable loss to the most talented team in the conference.
These are the two most well-rounded teams in the Big 12 when you consider TCU's issues on defense and UT's perpetual ability to underachieve. Malik Knowles is an important player for KSU, and he's apparently dinged up but expected to play.
I'm interested to see how Baylor's wide-zone scheme fairs against KSU's really solid front. On the other side of the ball, KSU isn't set up to take advantage of Baylor's only real weakness (the secondary).
With the personnel and scheme match-ups slightly favoring Baylor plus this being in Waco, I'm inclined to pick Baylor, but don't feel great about it.
Prediction: Baylor 28 - Kansas State 24
Sideline "Banger" of the Week:
Welp, Clemson laid a massive egg last week, bringing the season record to 3-4. Not good. It's really hard to pick against widely-available lines on Wednesday. Even harder when I'm limited to sides and not totals (no one wants to bet on the under in a mid-week MAC game).
It's back to the drawing board.. I'm going to keep it in conference and pick Texas -7. I predict it ends up closing above 7.5. TCU is going to have a lot of trouble stopping UT's offense. And if they get behind early, their OL will have trouble keeping Duggan clean.
