TCU (-7.5) at West Virginia
Who knows how last week's TCU/KSU game turns out if Adrian Martinez wasn't knocked out after one possession. It's not like Kansas State with Will Howard had trouble moving the football. 2.8 points per possession is pretty good. But something tells me they wouldn't have been shut out in the 2nd half with Martinez, or given TCU multiple possessions starting inside the redzone.
I'm going to choose to believe that TCU's performance against KSU's back-up QB was just "okay." And, even though we're half-way through the season, I'm still struggling to figure out this TCU team. Sonny Dykes' modus operandi of only playing against back-up QBs or compromised starters is brilliant. Very effective. But it's causing me to have doubts about their defense. On paper, it's right on par with Tech's, but I'm inclined to give Tech the nod here since we handicap ourselves by facing starting QBs in good health.
I do think we will find out a lot about TCU's defense this Saturday. After getting absolutely dismantled by Tech's defense full of mercenaries, I do think this is a good spot for WVU's offense to bounce back. And they have the tools to do it. I know their RB (Tony Mathis) is probably out but they have serviceable backs behind him, and their two outside WRs are still really good. Did we really hurt Daniels last week? Or was Neal just trying to get him out of harm's way considering that game turned into one of the adult-eyes-only scenes from Shawshank? I think Neal was just trying to spare him.
I picked up a little bit of TCU -7 -105 because I thought it was a good number, but it's not going to take much for me to buy back on WVU at +7.5 if the price is right. This is a scary spot for TCU. This is essentially Neal Brown's Thermoplyea. His last stand. And you don't want to face a team in that situation.
Unfortunately, though, WVU's defense might even be worse than I thought it was this time last week when I was comparing it to Tech's 2016 defense. That's not good when you're facing a TCU offense that is averaging 3.3 points per Big 12 possession, which leads the league by a wide margin.
Prediction: TCU 38 - WVU 31
Oklahoma (Pickem) at Iowa State
This is an intriguing game. Dillon Gabriel v. Hunter Dekkers is one of the bigger QB disparities you'll find around the country this week. Dekkers just isn't that good. He was in the mix with Donovan for the "least effective Big 12 QB" award a few weeks back. OU's offense is very potent with Gabriel at the helm, but Iowa State's defense has shown this year that it's one of the best in the Big 12 -- maybe even the best (it's #1 in points allowed per drive).
Unfortunately, Iowa State's offense has just been brutal. It's the worst in the conference and it's not even particularly close. I actually think its worse than OU's defense. Both teams coming off a bye week with Iowa State playing at home. My gut tells me the bye-week coaching advantage goes to Matt Campbell.
I really don't know what to think here, but my gut tells me OU wins this game more often than not.
Prediction: Oklahoma 30 - Iowa State 27
Oklahoma State (+1.5) at Kansas State
Another really interesting game because of the QB storylines. Reading the tea leaves a bit, it doesn't appear that Adrian Martinez will play. Kleiman was cagey on that issue this week, but Martinez had not practiced as of Tuesday. And considering mobility is his biggest threat, it doesn't make a ton of sense to put out a hobbled Martinez. Plus, Will Howard has experience and didn't look bad last Saturday.
On the other side, you've got an Oklahoma State team that might be pretty dang good. They "could've" and probably "should've" beat TCU and gave Texas' vaunted offense serious problems last Saturday. It is quite hilarious that Texas, once again, will not play in the Big 12 championship despite fielding the best roster in the conference. It's probably the least surprising thing to happen this football season, but still funny nonetheless. They aren't done losing yet, either.
This is another Big 12 game this week where, in my opinion, the better QB is a slight underdog or a pickem on the road (OU at Iowa State being the other). A decided advantage at that position always gives me pause about picking the perceived favorite, especially when you have OSU's extremely competent defense also in play.
I'm not going to touch this game from a betting perspective but if I had to make a prediction, give me the 37-year-old Spencer Sanders over Will Howard.
Prediction: Oklahoma State 28 - Kansas State 27
Other interesting games:
FIU (+7) at La Tech:
This is easily the most intriguing game around the country for all college football fans. The epic Sonny Cumbie v. David Yost showdown. If it wasn't being played on Friday night, the bustling town of Ruston is hosting College Gameday, without question.
Cumbie might be down to his 3rd string QB (paging @J. Strebeck)?? FIU is objectively terrible, but they did just whip Charlotte and get their coach fired. If La Tech has anything remotely close to competent QB play, they are going to win this game by multiple scores. I have the Bulldogs locked in at -6.5 -107, but the possibility of a 3rd string QB gives me some pause.
Coastal Carolina (+2.5) at Marshall:
So... uh.. Henry Colombi lost his job. To a FR that is not very good at being a QB. I thought Henry may have bailed on the team like he did last year before the bowl game, because he wasn't dressed out last week, but he is apparently suiting up this week as QB2.
This might be the biggest QB disparity (Grayson McCall v. random FR QB) for an underdog of the entire college football season. Coastal isn't near as good as they usually are, but they are coming off a bye and this is a really important game for the Sun Belt championship race. The winner is in the driver's seat to play in the title game. I haven't bet it because the line doesn't make any sense to me (Marshall opened +1 and are now -2.5), but I don't know how I prevent myself from betting the Chanticleers plus points in this one.
In fact, yep, I'm doing it right now. It will be the Sideline Provisions "Booger" of the Week. We lost the term "Banger" of the week until we can get back to .500 (2-3) on the year. Coastal Carolina +2.5. I'm locking it in.
Georgia (-22.5) v Florida:
Out of sheer principle, I will probably back the Gators here. 3+ TDs is a shitpile of points for a rivalry game, I don't care how good Georgia is -- they still piddled around with Mizzou and Kent State. Plus, Billy Napier is a wild man and is liable to do some crazy things here like onside kick it after every score. Florida's QB is electric. Georgia will be pounding the rock all day. It's going to be a task for them to cover this many points.
Aggy (+2.5) v. Ole Miss:
A&M was losing 17-0 to South Carolina last week and had allowed 19 offensive yards in the process. They probably should've won that game. I would've been smoking dope in the locker room afterwards, too.
You gotta love the pageantry of college football -- 18-year-olds making 200k a year smoking pot in the locker room.
I don't know what to make of this game, because Ole Miss got exposed last week. I just wanted to make fun of those hermaphrodites down in College Station.
Owned and operated by Red Raiders, Sideline Provisions offers one of a kind items you can’t find anywhere else in the world. They are the original creator of the Guns Up logo and are the only place to get Dirk West original pieces.
Who knows how last week's TCU/KSU game turns out if Adrian Martinez wasn't knocked out after one possession. It's not like Kansas State with Will Howard had trouble moving the football. 2.8 points per possession is pretty good. But something tells me they wouldn't have been shut out in the 2nd half with Martinez, or given TCU multiple possessions starting inside the redzone.
I'm going to choose to believe that TCU's performance against KSU's back-up QB was just "okay." And, even though we're half-way through the season, I'm still struggling to figure out this TCU team. Sonny Dykes' modus operandi of only playing against back-up QBs or compromised starters is brilliant. Very effective. But it's causing me to have doubts about their defense. On paper, it's right on par with Tech's, but I'm inclined to give Tech the nod here since we handicap ourselves by facing starting QBs in good health.
I do think we will find out a lot about TCU's defense this Saturday. After getting absolutely dismantled by Tech's defense full of mercenaries, I do think this is a good spot for WVU's offense to bounce back. And they have the tools to do it. I know their RB (Tony Mathis) is probably out but they have serviceable backs behind him, and their two outside WRs are still really good. Did we really hurt Daniels last week? Or was Neal just trying to get him out of harm's way considering that game turned into one of the adult-eyes-only scenes from Shawshank? I think Neal was just trying to spare him.
I picked up a little bit of TCU -7 -105 because I thought it was a good number, but it's not going to take much for me to buy back on WVU at +7.5 if the price is right. This is a scary spot for TCU. This is essentially Neal Brown's Thermoplyea. His last stand. And you don't want to face a team in that situation.
Unfortunately, though, WVU's defense might even be worse than I thought it was this time last week when I was comparing it to Tech's 2016 defense. That's not good when you're facing a TCU offense that is averaging 3.3 points per Big 12 possession, which leads the league by a wide margin.
Prediction: TCU 38 - WVU 31
Oklahoma (Pickem) at Iowa State
This is an intriguing game. Dillon Gabriel v. Hunter Dekkers is one of the bigger QB disparities you'll find around the country this week. Dekkers just isn't that good. He was in the mix with Donovan for the "least effective Big 12 QB" award a few weeks back. OU's offense is very potent with Gabriel at the helm, but Iowa State's defense has shown this year that it's one of the best in the Big 12 -- maybe even the best (it's #1 in points allowed per drive).
Unfortunately, Iowa State's offense has just been brutal. It's the worst in the conference and it's not even particularly close. I actually think its worse than OU's defense. Both teams coming off a bye week with Iowa State playing at home. My gut tells me the bye-week coaching advantage goes to Matt Campbell.
I really don't know what to think here, but my gut tells me OU wins this game more often than not.
Prediction: Oklahoma 30 - Iowa State 27
Oklahoma State (+1.5) at Kansas State
Another really interesting game because of the QB storylines. Reading the tea leaves a bit, it doesn't appear that Adrian Martinez will play. Kleiman was cagey on that issue this week, but Martinez had not practiced as of Tuesday. And considering mobility is his biggest threat, it doesn't make a ton of sense to put out a hobbled Martinez. Plus, Will Howard has experience and didn't look bad last Saturday.
On the other side, you've got an Oklahoma State team that might be pretty dang good. They "could've" and probably "should've" beat TCU and gave Texas' vaunted offense serious problems last Saturday. It is quite hilarious that Texas, once again, will not play in the Big 12 championship despite fielding the best roster in the conference. It's probably the least surprising thing to happen this football season, but still funny nonetheless. They aren't done losing yet, either.
This is another Big 12 game this week where, in my opinion, the better QB is a slight underdog or a pickem on the road (OU at Iowa State being the other). A decided advantage at that position always gives me pause about picking the perceived favorite, especially when you have OSU's extremely competent defense also in play.
I'm not going to touch this game from a betting perspective but if I had to make a prediction, give me the 37-year-old Spencer Sanders over Will Howard.
Prediction: Oklahoma State 28 - Kansas State 27
Other interesting games:
FIU (+7) at La Tech:
This is easily the most intriguing game around the country for all college football fans. The epic Sonny Cumbie v. David Yost showdown. If it wasn't being played on Friday night, the bustling town of Ruston is hosting College Gameday, without question.
Cumbie might be down to his 3rd string QB (paging @J. Strebeck)?? FIU is objectively terrible, but they did just whip Charlotte and get their coach fired. If La Tech has anything remotely close to competent QB play, they are going to win this game by multiple scores. I have the Bulldogs locked in at -6.5 -107, but the possibility of a 3rd string QB gives me some pause.
Coastal Carolina (+2.5) at Marshall:
So... uh.. Henry Colombi lost his job. To a FR that is not very good at being a QB. I thought Henry may have bailed on the team like he did last year before the bowl game, because he wasn't dressed out last week, but he is apparently suiting up this week as QB2.
This might be the biggest QB disparity (Grayson McCall v. random FR QB) for an underdog of the entire college football season. Coastal isn't near as good as they usually are, but they are coming off a bye and this is a really important game for the Sun Belt championship race. The winner is in the driver's seat to play in the title game. I haven't bet it because the line doesn't make any sense to me (Marshall opened +1 and are now -2.5), but I don't know how I prevent myself from betting the Chanticleers plus points in this one.
In fact, yep, I'm doing it right now. It will be the Sideline Provisions "Booger" of the Week. We lost the term "Banger" of the week until we can get back to .500 (2-3) on the year. Coastal Carolina +2.5. I'm locking it in.
Georgia (-22.5) v Florida:
Out of sheer principle, I will probably back the Gators here. 3+ TDs is a shitpile of points for a rivalry game, I don't care how good Georgia is -- they still piddled around with Mizzou and Kent State. Plus, Billy Napier is a wild man and is liable to do some crazy things here like onside kick it after every score. Florida's QB is electric. Georgia will be pounding the rock all day. It's going to be a task for them to cover this many points.
Aggy (+2.5) v. Ole Miss:
A&M was losing 17-0 to South Carolina last week and had allowed 19 offensive yards in the process. They probably should've won that game. I would've been smoking dope in the locker room afterwards, too.
You gotta love the pageantry of college football -- 18-year-olds making 200k a year smoking pot in the locker room.
I don't know what to make of this game, because Ole Miss got exposed last week. I just wanted to make fun of those hermaphrodites down in College Station.
Owned and operated by Red Raiders, Sideline Provisions offers one of a kind items you can’t find anywhere else in the world. They are the original creator of the Guns Up logo and are the only place to get Dirk West original pieces.
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