The Sideline Provisions Banger of the Week was indeed a banger last week. Coastal Carolina +2.5 was never really in doubt against Marshall. We're back to .500 on the season.
Texas -2.5 at Kansas State
This opened Texas pick'em and has been bet up to -2.5. At one point I thought it was going to cross the significant -3 threshold, but I guess not. Texas is good. They just consistently underperform. It's almost strategic at this point. But they still have really good players, and that's why they're favored on the road against one of the hottest teams in the conference. They are also coming off a bye week.
If you're into buying low (Texas after a loss) and selling high (KSU after a 78-0 win), then Texas is the pick this week. It's going to be a tough one for them, though. Manhattan will be rocking in a night game. Kansas State also has the best defense on paper in the conference -- #1 in points allowed per drive, #1 in TD rate, #3 in turnover rate.
The key will be Texas' really good defensive front. UT's defense has the 8th best success rate on rush attempts in the country. I think they are well equipped to stop KSU's rushing attack.
Prediction: Texas 28 - Kansas State 24
Oklahoma State -2 at Kansas
Gundy has been coy this week when discussing the status of Spencer Sanders.. "we're going to rest him this week and try to get him back, just like we've been doing." Oklahoma State has a ton of injuries. This line opened Kansas +3 and was bet down because of those injury issues -- Brayden Johnson, Dominic Richardson, and Spencer Sanders all missed or were knocked out of the KSU game. That's a significant trio of guys on offense for them to potentially have out.
Add in a Kansas bye week + the possibility of getting Jaden Daniels back and you have a really, really tough spot for Ok. State. It's why the line moved and I bet will continue to move in Kansas' direction, barring some really positive injury news for Ok. State.
Only one team in the league is scoring TDs less frequently than Oklahoma State (it's Iowa State). And no team in the league is punting more frequently than the pokes. Gundy is so conservative, it actually makes me nauseous.
Meanwhile, Kansas' offense is still one of the best in this conference, despite having played its backup QB in a handful of games. I have Kansas +3. I think they win the game outright.
Prediction: Kansas 34 - Oklahoma State 31
Oklahoma -3.5 v. Baylor
This line somewhat surprises me. OU's point per drive differential in Big 12 play is -.82, while Baylor's is +.6. Now, we know OU's numbers are screwed up because of the game and a half they played without Gabriel at QB. But still, this line is taking into account OU's history in a big way.
OU won a tough game in Ames last Saturday. They held Iowa State to less than 2.5 yards per run on traditional hand-offs, and we know Baylor is going to test that run defense.
What Baylor did last week doesn’t need to be rehashed. I'm of the opinion that we made Baylor look a lot better than they actually are. Baylor's lost twice on the road now to teams that are a lot worse than OU (BYU & WVU). I don't have a great read on this game but lean towards Oklahoma playing well at home and Baylor dropping another road tilt.
Prediction: Oklahoma 33 - Baylor 28
Iowa State -7 v. West Virginia
Really tough loss for Neal Brown last week. They played well against TCU, just couldn't hold up defensively. But there's still a little bit of fight there, and their offense can be dangerous.
Similarly tough loss for Iowa State to lose by 2 TDs in a home game that closes pretty much at pick'em. This is definitely the biggest yawner of the Big 12 slate. Iowa State being a 7-point favorite here does mean one thing -- WVU is the worst team in this league. It's year 4 for Neal, and he has the worst team in the conference. That's not good. And they somehow owe him like $20mil if they want to move on.
I bet Iowa State's horrible offense looks way better than it actually is on Saturday, and their defense plays up to its normal, top-25 standards.
Prediction: Iowa State 28 - WVU 20
Sideline Provisions Banger of the Week:
Clemson is the worst of the six or so CFP playoff contenders, and I don't think it's even close. They would be significant underdogs to Bama, UGA, Ohio State, Tennessee, etc. However, Notre Dame has serious QB problems. They can't throw the football, and pounding the rock is going to be difficult against Clemson's front 7. This line is Clemson -3.5 / -4 across the board, although a couple -3s have popped up occasionally throughout the week. I predict it closes -4 or higher, so Clemson -3.5 (or better) is the Sideline Provisions Banger of the Week. It feels like sort of a square side, and it might be. But Notre Dame is not that good this year, and it's a decent spot to fade them after they looked pretty good last week against Syracuse.
Other Games:
SMU -3 v. Houston
Mildly intrigued here by future Big 12 team playing an in-state conference rival. Houston has injury problems big time. Their two WRs -- Manjack & Golden -- are questionable. Then SMU is getting back Tanner Mordecai. Tay'zahn Henry hasn't had a carry in the month of October, not that he matters much. Kesean Carter is finally involved in the offense now with the WR injuries.
Owned and operated by Red Raiders, Sideline Provisions offers one of a kind items you can’t find anywhere else in the world. They are the original creator of the Guns Up logo and are the only place to get Dirk West original pieces.
Texas -2.5 at Kansas State
This opened Texas pick'em and has been bet up to -2.5. At one point I thought it was going to cross the significant -3 threshold, but I guess not. Texas is good. They just consistently underperform. It's almost strategic at this point. But they still have really good players, and that's why they're favored on the road against one of the hottest teams in the conference. They are also coming off a bye week.
If you're into buying low (Texas after a loss) and selling high (KSU after a 78-0 win), then Texas is the pick this week. It's going to be a tough one for them, though. Manhattan will be rocking in a night game. Kansas State also has the best defense on paper in the conference -- #1 in points allowed per drive, #1 in TD rate, #3 in turnover rate.
The key will be Texas' really good defensive front. UT's defense has the 8th best success rate on rush attempts in the country. I think they are well equipped to stop KSU's rushing attack.
Prediction: Texas 28 - Kansas State 24
Oklahoma State -2 at Kansas
Gundy has been coy this week when discussing the status of Spencer Sanders.. "we're going to rest him this week and try to get him back, just like we've been doing." Oklahoma State has a ton of injuries. This line opened Kansas +3 and was bet down because of those injury issues -- Brayden Johnson, Dominic Richardson, and Spencer Sanders all missed or were knocked out of the KSU game. That's a significant trio of guys on offense for them to potentially have out.
Add in a Kansas bye week + the possibility of getting Jaden Daniels back and you have a really, really tough spot for Ok. State. It's why the line moved and I bet will continue to move in Kansas' direction, barring some really positive injury news for Ok. State.
Only one team in the league is scoring TDs less frequently than Oklahoma State (it's Iowa State). And no team in the league is punting more frequently than the pokes. Gundy is so conservative, it actually makes me nauseous.
Meanwhile, Kansas' offense is still one of the best in this conference, despite having played its backup QB in a handful of games. I have Kansas +3. I think they win the game outright.
Prediction: Kansas 34 - Oklahoma State 31
Oklahoma -3.5 v. Baylor
This line somewhat surprises me. OU's point per drive differential in Big 12 play is -.82, while Baylor's is +.6. Now, we know OU's numbers are screwed up because of the game and a half they played without Gabriel at QB. But still, this line is taking into account OU's history in a big way.
OU won a tough game in Ames last Saturday. They held Iowa State to less than 2.5 yards per run on traditional hand-offs, and we know Baylor is going to test that run defense.
What Baylor did last week doesn’t need to be rehashed. I'm of the opinion that we made Baylor look a lot better than they actually are. Baylor's lost twice on the road now to teams that are a lot worse than OU (BYU & WVU). I don't have a great read on this game but lean towards Oklahoma playing well at home and Baylor dropping another road tilt.
Prediction: Oklahoma 33 - Baylor 28
Iowa State -7 v. West Virginia
Really tough loss for Neal Brown last week. They played well against TCU, just couldn't hold up defensively. But there's still a little bit of fight there, and their offense can be dangerous.
Similarly tough loss for Iowa State to lose by 2 TDs in a home game that closes pretty much at pick'em. This is definitely the biggest yawner of the Big 12 slate. Iowa State being a 7-point favorite here does mean one thing -- WVU is the worst team in this league. It's year 4 for Neal, and he has the worst team in the conference. That's not good. And they somehow owe him like $20mil if they want to move on.
I bet Iowa State's horrible offense looks way better than it actually is on Saturday, and their defense plays up to its normal, top-25 standards.
Prediction: Iowa State 28 - WVU 20
Sideline Provisions Banger of the Week:
Clemson is the worst of the six or so CFP playoff contenders, and I don't think it's even close. They would be significant underdogs to Bama, UGA, Ohio State, Tennessee, etc. However, Notre Dame has serious QB problems. They can't throw the football, and pounding the rock is going to be difficult against Clemson's front 7. This line is Clemson -3.5 / -4 across the board, although a couple -3s have popped up occasionally throughout the week. I predict it closes -4 or higher, so Clemson -3.5 (or better) is the Sideline Provisions Banger of the Week. It feels like sort of a square side, and it might be. But Notre Dame is not that good this year, and it's a decent spot to fade them after they looked pretty good last week against Syracuse.
Other Games:
SMU -3 v. Houston
Mildly intrigued here by future Big 12 team playing an in-state conference rival. Houston has injury problems big time. Their two WRs -- Manjack & Golden -- are questionable. Then SMU is getting back Tanner Mordecai. Tay'zahn Henry hasn't had a carry in the month of October, not that he matters much. Kesean Carter is finally involved in the offense now with the WR injuries.
Owned and operated by Red Raiders, Sideline Provisions offers one of a kind items you can’t find anywhere else in the world. They are the original creator of the Guns Up logo and are the only place to get Dirk West original pieces.
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