Here are the top five storylines leading up to this weekend as Texas Tech (2-0) travels to Fayetteville to play Arkansas (1-1) Saturday at 6 p.m.
1) Was last week a fluke or was Arkansas overrated?
Most Red Raider fans probably had their eyes on this news before the game was even over with last week, but then-No. 18 Arkansas was upset 16-12 by unranked MAC opponent Toledo – a 21.5-point underdog - in Little Rock.
Was this a fluke or were the Razorbacks ranked too high in pre-season polls?
First give a little credit to Toledo, they’re a solid non-BCS, FBS program, they went 9-4 last year, they’ve been bowl eligible for five years in a row and anyone who’s been a college football fan for more than a few years has probably seen them ranked at one time or another, but the fact of the matter is: you’re Arkansas. You’re in “the best conference in the world,” you’re not supposed to lose games in the state of Arkansas, you’re not supposed to ever lose to anyone outside of the SEC (according to some folks), and you’re not supposed to lose to an unranked team.
Arkansas’ loss was strangely underwhelming because the Razorbacks offense posted 513 yards, but was only able to score 10 points. Senior quarterback Brandon Allen threw for a career high 412 yards, but with zero touchdowns and one interception. The Hogs couldn’t get it going on the ground and they consistently had trouble in the red zone. This weekend, they will face a Tech team that has scored in every single trip to the red zone this year.
2) Is that loss good or bad for Texas Tech?
You can look at this in two different ways.
First, I’m sure the Red Raiders’ confidence heading into this game shot up tremendously when they found out Arkansas lost to Toledo at the same time they were rolling over UTEP 69-20. Scores and outcomes aside, Texas Tech still knows what it’s up against. But what if the Razorbacks just aren’t very good? Maybe Texas Tech will expose them even more this weekend?
Or you can look at it the other way around.
Maybe this becomes a huge wake-up call for Arkansas and a turning point in their season. Maybe they come off this loss and play some championship caliber football. They rushed for 438 yards and seven touchdowns against the Red Raiders in 2014, what reason do they have to believe they can’t do that again?
In this case, it doesn’t do too much good to look at the common opponent: UTEP. Both Texas Tech and Arkansas were supposed to destroy UTEP. Both did.
In the off-season, very few Red Raider fans thought Tech would have a chance in this game, but the tides have turned and most fans are now expecting a win. Until it’s played, we really won’t know. While I’m predicting a one-to-two-score win, we truthfully don’t know. It could be a close win, a blowout win or even a close loss or a blowout loss. Early-season games can be very unpredictable and football isn’t played on paper.
3) Will Texas Tech’s defense improve for the second consecutive week?
After giving up 637 yards to Sam Houston State in Week One, the Red Raiders allowed just 414 against UTEP last weekend and looked much better. If you take away Aaron Jones’ 91-yard touchdown run, Texas Tech held UTEP to 3.02 yards per carry, which for them is pretty good. While the Red Raiders looked much improved last weekend, they still have strides to make if they want to win one or more of the next three games: Arkansas, TCU, and Baylor.
Improvement aside, the Red Raiders have still allowed 32.5 points per game and they’re about to face a much more talented team, with much better offense than the two teams responsible for the 32.5 average.
Third down defense has to improve as underwhelming opponents have converted on almost half of their attempts. If the defense can get stops on third down and force a few turnovers, Mahomes and the offense can take care of the rest.
One thing the Red Raider defense has going for it is turnover margin. The defense is tied for third nationally in turnover margin at plus-five and has forced six turnovers this season. Keep that up and the yardage allowed becomes a little less important.
4) Will Mahomes continue to play at a high level against better competition?
Patrick Mahomes has earned Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week honors in each of his last three starts – or 50 percent of his career starts. In six starts, Mahomes has passed for 2,214 yards and 22 touchdowns and has only thrown three interceptions. In the biggest game he’s played in for the Red Raiders, Mahomes completed 30 of 56 passes for 598 yards, six touchdowns and just one interception in a 48-46 loss to No. 5 Baylor in 2014. While this week isn’t quite as big of a stage as the Baylor game, it’s a major step up from these last two and Arkansas will field one of the better defenses Mahomes has played against.
Based on his track record as a starter, Mahomes gives no reason to doubt that he will come out and perform.
5) Will the Red Raiders redeem last year’s loss?
Last year the Red Raiders got embarrassed 49-28 by Arkansas in Lubbock after squeaking by Central Arkansas and UTEP the two previous weeks. Days later Texas Tech got rid of its defensive coordinator and fans started putting their season tickets up for sale to plan hunting and fishing trips for the rest of the fall instead of making trips to Lubbock for what was starting to look like a painful season.
It’s a new year and -- caliber of opponents aside -- in its two wins this season the Red Raiders have given fans hope that it really is a new year. A win this weekend looks realistic and, even though the Razorbacks could be down this year, it would be one of Kingsbury’s top four wins – maybe even top two -- as a head coach if the Red Raiders can walk out of Fayetteville 3-0.
1) Was last week a fluke or was Arkansas overrated?
Most Red Raider fans probably had their eyes on this news before the game was even over with last week, but then-No. 18 Arkansas was upset 16-12 by unranked MAC opponent Toledo – a 21.5-point underdog - in Little Rock.
Was this a fluke or were the Razorbacks ranked too high in pre-season polls?
First give a little credit to Toledo, they’re a solid non-BCS, FBS program, they went 9-4 last year, they’ve been bowl eligible for five years in a row and anyone who’s been a college football fan for more than a few years has probably seen them ranked at one time or another, but the fact of the matter is: you’re Arkansas. You’re in “the best conference in the world,” you’re not supposed to lose games in the state of Arkansas, you’re not supposed to ever lose to anyone outside of the SEC (according to some folks), and you’re not supposed to lose to an unranked team.
Arkansas’ loss was strangely underwhelming because the Razorbacks offense posted 513 yards, but was only able to score 10 points. Senior quarterback Brandon Allen threw for a career high 412 yards, but with zero touchdowns and one interception. The Hogs couldn’t get it going on the ground and they consistently had trouble in the red zone. This weekend, they will face a Tech team that has scored in every single trip to the red zone this year.
2) Is that loss good or bad for Texas Tech?
You can look at this in two different ways.
First, I’m sure the Red Raiders’ confidence heading into this game shot up tremendously when they found out Arkansas lost to Toledo at the same time they were rolling over UTEP 69-20. Scores and outcomes aside, Texas Tech still knows what it’s up against. But what if the Razorbacks just aren’t very good? Maybe Texas Tech will expose them even more this weekend?
Or you can look at it the other way around.
Maybe this becomes a huge wake-up call for Arkansas and a turning point in their season. Maybe they come off this loss and play some championship caliber football. They rushed for 438 yards and seven touchdowns against the Red Raiders in 2014, what reason do they have to believe they can’t do that again?
In this case, it doesn’t do too much good to look at the common opponent: UTEP. Both Texas Tech and Arkansas were supposed to destroy UTEP. Both did.
In the off-season, very few Red Raider fans thought Tech would have a chance in this game, but the tides have turned and most fans are now expecting a win. Until it’s played, we really won’t know. While I’m predicting a one-to-two-score win, we truthfully don’t know. It could be a close win, a blowout win or even a close loss or a blowout loss. Early-season games can be very unpredictable and football isn’t played on paper.
3) Will Texas Tech’s defense improve for the second consecutive week?
After giving up 637 yards to Sam Houston State in Week One, the Red Raiders allowed just 414 against UTEP last weekend and looked much better. If you take away Aaron Jones’ 91-yard touchdown run, Texas Tech held UTEP to 3.02 yards per carry, which for them is pretty good. While the Red Raiders looked much improved last weekend, they still have strides to make if they want to win one or more of the next three games: Arkansas, TCU, and Baylor.
Improvement aside, the Red Raiders have still allowed 32.5 points per game and they’re about to face a much more talented team, with much better offense than the two teams responsible for the 32.5 average.
Third down defense has to improve as underwhelming opponents have converted on almost half of their attempts. If the defense can get stops on third down and force a few turnovers, Mahomes and the offense can take care of the rest.
One thing the Red Raider defense has going for it is turnover margin. The defense is tied for third nationally in turnover margin at plus-five and has forced six turnovers this season. Keep that up and the yardage allowed becomes a little less important.
4) Will Mahomes continue to play at a high level against better competition?
Patrick Mahomes has earned Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week honors in each of his last three starts – or 50 percent of his career starts. In six starts, Mahomes has passed for 2,214 yards and 22 touchdowns and has only thrown three interceptions. In the biggest game he’s played in for the Red Raiders, Mahomes completed 30 of 56 passes for 598 yards, six touchdowns and just one interception in a 48-46 loss to No. 5 Baylor in 2014. While this week isn’t quite as big of a stage as the Baylor game, it’s a major step up from these last two and Arkansas will field one of the better defenses Mahomes has played against.
Based on his track record as a starter, Mahomes gives no reason to doubt that he will come out and perform.
5) Will the Red Raiders redeem last year’s loss?
Last year the Red Raiders got embarrassed 49-28 by Arkansas in Lubbock after squeaking by Central Arkansas and UTEP the two previous weeks. Days later Texas Tech got rid of its defensive coordinator and fans started putting their season tickets up for sale to plan hunting and fishing trips for the rest of the fall instead of making trips to Lubbock for what was starting to look like a painful season.
It’s a new year and -- caliber of opponents aside -- in its two wins this season the Red Raiders have given fans hope that it really is a new year. A win this weekend looks realistic and, even though the Razorbacks could be down this year, it would be one of Kingsbury’s top four wins – maybe even top two -- as a head coach if the Red Raiders can walk out of Fayetteville 3-0.
