I’ve recently become obsessed with EPA (expected points added per play), and with both teams being 4 games into the season, feel we can use this years numbers and throw away last years.
Diving into the EPA, both teams are pretty close on offense:
KSU .222
TTU .201
where it’s gets interesting is that Tech is the more balanced team on offense
Run Pass
.191 .228 TTU
.321 .061 KSU
Why is this important? Because of the defenses. KSU has the better defense on paper:
-.004 KSU negative on D is good
.077 TTU
But when you break it down
Run Pass
0 .175 KSU
-.048 .218 TTU
So KSU is really good at running the ball and we are good at stopping it. they are also bad at throwing and we aren’t great at stopping it (but that’s really because of the chunk plays/trick plays we have given up)
We’re a balanced offense that probably won’t run that well against KSU but can probably dink and dunk them like we did UT.
the positive is that if we can use our defense to shut down the run (strength vs strength) and force KSU to throw, we should win this game.
The negative is that it’s KSU, they’re good, and my line based off a formula I’m working on is:
KSU -10.2
Homer game prediction is Tech 38-31
Also, Donovan had a ridiculously good game last week but we all knew that. 19.7 points added for the game
feel free to steal this again, @T. Beadles
Diving into the EPA, both teams are pretty close on offense:
KSU .222
TTU .201
where it’s gets interesting is that Tech is the more balanced team on offense
Run Pass
.191 .228 TTU
.321 .061 KSU
Why is this important? Because of the defenses. KSU has the better defense on paper:
-.004 KSU negative on D is good
.077 TTU
But when you break it down
Run Pass
0 .175 KSU
-.048 .218 TTU
So KSU is really good at running the ball and we are good at stopping it. they are also bad at throwing and we aren’t great at stopping it (but that’s really because of the chunk plays/trick plays we have given up)
We’re a balanced offense that probably won’t run that well against KSU but can probably dink and dunk them like we did UT.
the positive is that if we can use our defense to shut down the run (strength vs strength) and force KSU to throw, we should win this game.
The negative is that it’s KSU, they’re good, and my line based off a formula I’m working on is:
KSU -10.2
Homer game prediction is Tech 38-31
Also, Donovan had a ridiculously good game last week but we all knew that. 19.7 points added for the game
feel free to steal this again, @T. Beadles
