Not sure why I was compelled to do this, but I wanted to visualize Tech's win/loss record & record against the spread, sorted by coaches. The raw numbers are at the bottom.
In the last 14 seasons, Tech has been favored by 10.5 points or more in 59 games. Nearly half (30) of those occurred under Leach from 05-09. Since the head coach in college football is not really a major factor in setting lines, what other factors do you think lead to Tech being bigger favorites during the 05 - 09 seasons? A tougher Big 12 (and playing 9 conference games instead of 8) & noncon schedule, maybe? BU & Kansas State were way worse from 05-09 compared to 2010 - 2018. We also might've just had worse players and, as a result, were fielding some of the most awful defenses in the history of modern college football.
Note that lines were not posted on FBS v. FCS teams until around 2010. Because Leach faced 6 such opponents from 05-09, the data below for Leach does not include those games. The numbers in the comment above (59 total games) assumes that Tech would've been favored in those 6 FCS games by 10.5 points or more.
81% of Kliff's opponents were P5 teams. 73.6% of Tubs' opponents were P5 teams. 70.9% of Leach's opponents were P5 teams.
Kliff's Tech teams took care of business as a big favorite (17-0 straight up & 11-5-1 against the spread). Tubs' teams were average as a big favorite (11-1 SU & 7-5 ATS). Leach was not very good, losing nearly 13% of those games (or 10% if you include the FCS opponents). Here's our 4 losses as a big favorite since 2005:
2005 Okie Lite, losing 24-10 as a 22-pt favorite;
2007 Colorado, losing at home 31-26 as a 14-pt favorite;
2009 Aggy losing 52-30 @ home as a 22-pt favorite; and
2011 Iowa State, losing 41-7 as a 14.5-pt favorite
While he did not necessarily do well against the spread, Leach's teams were much better as a moderate favorite (-3.5 to -10). Since 2005, Tech is an awful 19-13 in those games, with Leach winning 10 of those games out of 14 tries.
The demise of Kliff is apparent in the coinflip games (Tech -3 to Tech +3). Tubs & Leach fared as expected, going a combined 7-5 straight up. Kliff went an abysmal 4-10 SU and ATS. Out of those 10 losses, only 3 were one-possession games (2018 UT, 2017 USF; & 2016 UT).
I'm not sure what the line will be in Norman next Saturday. Before putting this together, I blindly assumed that it would be OU by -21 or more. Now I'm not so sure. Since 2005, Tech has been an underdog of 21 or more only four times: 2011 @ OU (outright win); 2014 BU @ Jerryworld (2-pt loss mentioned below); 2014 @ TCU (82-27) & 2013 BU @ Jerryworld (L 63-34).
Tech is 1-6 ATS in Norman since 2005. Most recently, 2017 Tech was 20 pt underdogs in Norman and 2015 Tech was 14.5 point underdogs.
Leach (05-09)
Tech -21.5 or more:
11-2 straight up; 6-6-1 against the spread
Tech -10.5 to -21:
10-1 SU; 7-4 ATS
Tech -3.5 to -10:
10-4 SU; 4-10 ATS
Tech -3 to Tech +3:
2-3 SU; 2-3 ATS
Tech +3.5 to +10:
3-6 SU; 4-5 ATS
Tech +10.5 to +21:
1-2 SU; 2-1 ATS
Ruffin (Alamo Bowl):
Tech -9.5:
1-0 SU & 1-0 ATS.
Tubs
Tech -21.5 or more:
6-0 SU; 5-1 ATS
Tech -10.5 to -21:
5-1 SU; 2-4 ATS
Tech -3.5 to -10:
4-4 SU; 2-4 ATS
Tech -3 to Tech +3:
5-3 SU; 4-3-1 ATS
Tech +3.5 to +10:
1-5 SU; 2-4 ATS
Tech +10.5 to +21:
0-5 SU; 1-4 ATS
Tech +21.5 or more (2011 OU):
1-0 SU; 1-0 ATS
Kliff
Tech -21.5 or more:
7-0 SU; 3-4 ATS
Tech -10.5 to -21:
10-0 SU; 8-1-1 ATS
Tech -3.5 to -10:
5-5 SU; 5-5 ATS
Tech -3 to Tech +3:
4-10 SU; 4-10 ATS
Tech +3.5 to +10:
6-12 SU; 10-8 ATS
Tech +10.5 to +21:
1-11 SU; 8-4 ATS
Tech +21.5 or more:
0-3 SU; 1-2 ATS
Random:
2014 game that Pat started against BU. With hindsight, there was crazy value in Tech +26.5 or Tech moneyline. We lost on the 2-pt conversion to tie it.
2006 - The infamous 30-6 loss to 0-6 CU. Something was up that game, since Tech was only a 6 point favorite. Colorado had lost to Montana State and was starting freakin' Cody Hawkins at QB.
In the last 14 seasons, Tech has been favored by 10.5 points or more in 59 games. Nearly half (30) of those occurred under Leach from 05-09. Since the head coach in college football is not really a major factor in setting lines, what other factors do you think lead to Tech being bigger favorites during the 05 - 09 seasons? A tougher Big 12 (and playing 9 conference games instead of 8) & noncon schedule, maybe? BU & Kansas State were way worse from 05-09 compared to 2010 - 2018. We also might've just had worse players and, as a result, were fielding some of the most awful defenses in the history of modern college football.
Note that lines were not posted on FBS v. FCS teams until around 2010. Because Leach faced 6 such opponents from 05-09, the data below for Leach does not include those games. The numbers in the comment above (59 total games) assumes that Tech would've been favored in those 6 FCS games by 10.5 points or more.
81% of Kliff's opponents were P5 teams. 73.6% of Tubs' opponents were P5 teams. 70.9% of Leach's opponents were P5 teams.
Kliff's Tech teams took care of business as a big favorite (17-0 straight up & 11-5-1 against the spread). Tubs' teams were average as a big favorite (11-1 SU & 7-5 ATS). Leach was not very good, losing nearly 13% of those games (or 10% if you include the FCS opponents). Here's our 4 losses as a big favorite since 2005:
2005 Okie Lite, losing 24-10 as a 22-pt favorite;
2007 Colorado, losing at home 31-26 as a 14-pt favorite;
2009 Aggy losing 52-30 @ home as a 22-pt favorite; and
2011 Iowa State, losing 41-7 as a 14.5-pt favorite
While he did not necessarily do well against the spread, Leach's teams were much better as a moderate favorite (-3.5 to -10). Since 2005, Tech is an awful 19-13 in those games, with Leach winning 10 of those games out of 14 tries.
The demise of Kliff is apparent in the coinflip games (Tech -3 to Tech +3). Tubs & Leach fared as expected, going a combined 7-5 straight up. Kliff went an abysmal 4-10 SU and ATS. Out of those 10 losses, only 3 were one-possession games (2018 UT, 2017 USF; & 2016 UT).
I'm not sure what the line will be in Norman next Saturday. Before putting this together, I blindly assumed that it would be OU by -21 or more. Now I'm not so sure. Since 2005, Tech has been an underdog of 21 or more only four times: 2011 @ OU (outright win); 2014 BU @ Jerryworld (2-pt loss mentioned below); 2014 @ TCU (82-27) & 2013 BU @ Jerryworld (L 63-34).
Tech is 1-6 ATS in Norman since 2005. Most recently, 2017 Tech was 20 pt underdogs in Norman and 2015 Tech was 14.5 point underdogs.
Leach (05-09)
Tech -21.5 or more:
11-2 straight up; 6-6-1 against the spread
Tech -10.5 to -21:
10-1 SU; 7-4 ATS
Tech -3.5 to -10:
10-4 SU; 4-10 ATS
Tech -3 to Tech +3:
2-3 SU; 2-3 ATS
Tech +3.5 to +10:
3-6 SU; 4-5 ATS
Tech +10.5 to +21:
1-2 SU; 2-1 ATS
Ruffin (Alamo Bowl):
Tech -9.5:
1-0 SU & 1-0 ATS.
Tubs
Tech -21.5 or more:
6-0 SU; 5-1 ATS
Tech -10.5 to -21:
5-1 SU; 2-4 ATS
Tech -3.5 to -10:
4-4 SU; 2-4 ATS
Tech -3 to Tech +3:
5-3 SU; 4-3-1 ATS
Tech +3.5 to +10:
1-5 SU; 2-4 ATS
Tech +10.5 to +21:
0-5 SU; 1-4 ATS
Tech +21.5 or more (2011 OU):
1-0 SU; 1-0 ATS
Kliff
Tech -21.5 or more:
7-0 SU; 3-4 ATS
Tech -10.5 to -21:
10-0 SU; 8-1-1 ATS
Tech -3.5 to -10:
5-5 SU; 5-5 ATS
Tech -3 to Tech +3:
4-10 SU; 4-10 ATS
Tech +3.5 to +10:
6-12 SU; 10-8 ATS
Tech +10.5 to +21:
1-11 SU; 8-4 ATS
Tech +21.5 or more:
0-3 SU; 1-2 ATS
Random:
2014 game that Pat started against BU. With hindsight, there was crazy value in Tech +26.5 or Tech moneyline. We lost on the 2-pt conversion to tie it.
2006 - The infamous 30-6 loss to 0-6 CU. Something was up that game, since Tech was only a 6 point favorite. Colorado had lost to Montana State and was starting freakin' Cody Hawkins at QB.
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