I am desperately trying not to see the similarities between this game and the 2019 game vs UTEP. A game where it became abundantly clear that David Yost's offense was not going to be good enough succeed at the level expected. A game that was a comfortable win at home over a lower in-state team that felt anything but comfortable. That UTEP game was absolutely uglier, but that season also had lower expectations. I'm comparing these on a sliding scale. That game was death knell for that offensive staff, I'm hopeful this one is another sample of this offensive staff desperately trying to find productivity with this collection of players.
This game was cursed from the beginning. Our starting quarterback was booed during the lineup announcement (so was our kicker, but one crisis at a time), I mean, what are we doing? Think and discuss what you want about Shough's ability to play quarterback, and I have, but booing should be reserved for people who disrespect "The Brand" in some way; lack of effort, giving up, sheer stupidity, etc., not for a guy who has obviously sacrificed a great deal for this university and is deeply invested in this team. Between that, what was yelled from the stands (which is much more worrying that any kind of edited music played), and the sarcastic ovation Morton received, on a human level, I do feel bad for Tyler Shough.
Relatedly, this offense is not good enough right now, and that's not just a quarterback problem. It's scheme, it's offensive line play, it's receiver play, everyone is playing a part in this affront to offensive efficiency. The first three charts are ones that I found on twitter from football analytics people, in each one, you want to be top right, in each one Texas Tech/Tyler Shough are bottom left. The first one takes into account defensive EPA/Play on the y axis, and that's not terribly encouraging either, but again, one crisis at a time.
These next tables are for our game against Tarleton.
Success Rate is an efficiency metric that determines the success of a play. Successful plays meet one of the following criteria:
Passing Downs are defined as 2nd downs with 7 or more yards to go or 3rd and 4th downs with 5 or more yards to go.
Ignore the 4th Quarter, it was garbage time, but outside of that there is not near enough green and far too much red, considering the opponent. Going from a 67% percent success rate on passing downs in the first quarter to 14% in the second quarter doesn't make any sense, and it felt that way watching it. This offense cannot hang it's hat on anything, that causes wild inconsistency, and is incredibly frustrating.
Maybe I'm being overdramatic, but this offense feels like it needs to be torn down to the studs and rebuilt... before Saturday. Find some things that you can consistently do well, do that is a bunch of different formations, add a few counters to that, and go from there. You cannot keep trying whatever it is they are trying, an average success rate against Tarleton State should be a wakeup call.
Predicted Points Added (PPA) is the same thing as EPA. There are various different models for calculating EPA and EPA. PPA uses this site's custom EPA model.
Expected Points Added (EPA) uses Expected Points to measure the outcome of a play. It takes the EP value from the beginning of a play (e.g. 2nd and 5 at the 50) and subtracts it from the EP value resulting from the play (e.g. rush for 10 yards results in 1st and 10 from the 40).
I said this last week and it wasn't fixed... against Tarleton State... but you cannot be a good offense in 2023 if you cannot effectively throw the football. Again, this is not just a quarterback issue, if you go back and watch every passing play from this game you will see QB mistakes, absolutely, but you will also see drops, bad routes, poor pass blocking, questionable scheme, and miscommunications. It's a mess, top to bottom.
The run game, however, was improved. I don't really care about competition level either because it was more scheme that was encouraging, rather than result. We saw them try to win through scheme, instead of skill, by using more gap scheme runs (counter, power, etc.). These type of runs allow for lineman to block down/kick out which are both easier to do than zone block. Even on the zone runs, they used "wham" concepts which allows them to have better leverage on down/combo blocks and leaving the end man on the line of scrimmage for a pulling H/TE.
Tarleton was much explosive than Texas Tech. Bad.
To the film...
The first three plays in this clip are ones that I, and I'm sure Shough and Kittley do too, want back. These are just misses, throws that you can't consistently miss at this level. Two of them are drive ending and one prevents an explosive play. On the first one, Shough can hit Tharp or Brown in stride for a first down, he misses badly and we're lucky to be punting. Tharp and Brown are wide open, but look how Shough finishes this throw, he's not driving the ball and finishing through the throw, he's flat footed and falling away. This little stuff matters.
The second play is another miss, and again, by P5 standards, this is a Tahj is wide open. I don't necessarily highlight these to pick on Shough, but what would some of these passing and explosiveness numbers if we actually capitalized when we were able to create a big play. We are not explosive enough individually to miss scheme wins. It's a great play design too, everything going right, leak Tahj left, and protected perfectly.
The next one if frustrating because I'm left wondering why Shough picked the option he did. He's well protected, there are three receivers open for a first down, and he chose the most difficult throw. Which is fine... I guess, but it becomes a very odd decision when the end product looks like that. That's another drive ender.
Final play is why this is all so frustrating. This is exactly what we want from a QB! Patient, not rushed despite standing in his own end zone, scanning the field and going through his reads, finding the right throw and making it. Not only does he do those things, but he puts it in a spot that allows Brown an opportunity for YAC and he looks off a LB that creates the space for Brown. It's probably unfair to expect that level of perfection every time, but, man, he's obviously capable.
This clip is just an example of what I was mentioning earlier about the offensive staff trying to get the run game going. The down blocks, the Tharp motion, the kick out and pull, all things that make blocking easier because it creates easier angles and leverage. What a block by Tharp, by the way, he may have turned a corner.
The second play is the same ploay, but shows we still have a ways to go with this offensive line. Basically everyone but Tharp gets beat pretty badly, and there is no room for the RB.
Maybe that's the thing that needs to get figured out offensively, consistency. Even consistently average would get this team to 8 or 9 wins, the offensive staff has got to figure out a way to get to consistently average. You can see them trying in the run game, I am hoping some passing game wrinkles are next. Just like with the offensive line, make it easier for Shough and the receivers, let's see lots of play action, motion, and pocket moving.
Sorry for the offense only discussion, I didn't learn anything about the defense, and that is a good thing when you play Tarleton State. Loved seeing the interceptions, especially Malik's pick 6. Figure out a way to get to the QB and we're good.
This game was cursed from the beginning. Our starting quarterback was booed during the lineup announcement (so was our kicker, but one crisis at a time), I mean, what are we doing? Think and discuss what you want about Shough's ability to play quarterback, and I have, but booing should be reserved for people who disrespect "The Brand" in some way; lack of effort, giving up, sheer stupidity, etc., not for a guy who has obviously sacrificed a great deal for this university and is deeply invested in this team. Between that, what was yelled from the stands (which is much more worrying that any kind of edited music played), and the sarcastic ovation Morton received, on a human level, I do feel bad for Tyler Shough.
Relatedly, this offense is not good enough right now, and that's not just a quarterback problem. It's scheme, it's offensive line play, it's receiver play, everyone is playing a part in this affront to offensive efficiency. The first three charts are ones that I found on twitter from football analytics people, in each one, you want to be top right, in each one Texas Tech/Tyler Shough are bottom left. The first one takes into account defensive EPA/Play on the y axis, and that's not terribly encouraging either, but again, one crisis at a time.
These next tables are for our game against Tarleton.
Success Rate is an efficiency metric that determines the success of a play. Successful plays meet one of the following criteria:
- the offense scored
- 1st downs which gain at least 50% of the yards to go
- 2nd downs which gain at least 70% of the yards to go
- 3rd and 4th downs which gain at least 100% of the yards to go
Passing Downs are defined as 2nd downs with 7 or more yards to go or 3rd and 4th downs with 5 or more yards to go.
Ignore the 4th Quarter, it was garbage time, but outside of that there is not near enough green and far too much red, considering the opponent. Going from a 67% percent success rate on passing downs in the first quarter to 14% in the second quarter doesn't make any sense, and it felt that way watching it. This offense cannot hang it's hat on anything, that causes wild inconsistency, and is incredibly frustrating.
Maybe I'm being overdramatic, but this offense feels like it needs to be torn down to the studs and rebuilt... before Saturday. Find some things that you can consistently do well, do that is a bunch of different formations, add a few counters to that, and go from there. You cannot keep trying whatever it is they are trying, an average success rate against Tarleton State should be a wakeup call.
Predicted Points Added (PPA) is the same thing as EPA. There are various different models for calculating EPA and EPA. PPA uses this site's custom EPA model.
Expected Points Added (EPA) uses Expected Points to measure the outcome of a play. It takes the EP value from the beginning of a play (e.g. 2nd and 5 at the 50) and subtracts it from the EP value resulting from the play (e.g. rush for 10 yards results in 1st and 10 from the 40).
I said this last week and it wasn't fixed... against Tarleton State... but you cannot be a good offense in 2023 if you cannot effectively throw the football. Again, this is not just a quarterback issue, if you go back and watch every passing play from this game you will see QB mistakes, absolutely, but you will also see drops, bad routes, poor pass blocking, questionable scheme, and miscommunications. It's a mess, top to bottom.
The run game, however, was improved. I don't really care about competition level either because it was more scheme that was encouraging, rather than result. We saw them try to win through scheme, instead of skill, by using more gap scheme runs (counter, power, etc.). These type of runs allow for lineman to block down/kick out which are both easier to do than zone block. Even on the zone runs, they used "wham" concepts which allows them to have better leverage on down/combo blocks and leaving the end man on the line of scrimmage for a pulling H/TE.
Tarleton was much explosive than Texas Tech. Bad.
To the film...
The first three plays in this clip are ones that I, and I'm sure Shough and Kittley do too, want back. These are just misses, throws that you can't consistently miss at this level. Two of them are drive ending and one prevents an explosive play. On the first one, Shough can hit Tharp or Brown in stride for a first down, he misses badly and we're lucky to be punting. Tharp and Brown are wide open, but look how Shough finishes this throw, he's not driving the ball and finishing through the throw, he's flat footed and falling away. This little stuff matters.
The second play is another miss, and again, by P5 standards, this is a Tahj is wide open. I don't necessarily highlight these to pick on Shough, but what would some of these passing and explosiveness numbers if we actually capitalized when we were able to create a big play. We are not explosive enough individually to miss scheme wins. It's a great play design too, everything going right, leak Tahj left, and protected perfectly.
The next one if frustrating because I'm left wondering why Shough picked the option he did. He's well protected, there are three receivers open for a first down, and he chose the most difficult throw. Which is fine... I guess, but it becomes a very odd decision when the end product looks like that. That's another drive ender.
Final play is why this is all so frustrating. This is exactly what we want from a QB! Patient, not rushed despite standing in his own end zone, scanning the field and going through his reads, finding the right throw and making it. Not only does he do those things, but he puts it in a spot that allows Brown an opportunity for YAC and he looks off a LB that creates the space for Brown. It's probably unfair to expect that level of perfection every time, but, man, he's obviously capable.
This clip is just an example of what I was mentioning earlier about the offensive staff trying to get the run game going. The down blocks, the Tharp motion, the kick out and pull, all things that make blocking easier because it creates easier angles and leverage. What a block by Tharp, by the way, he may have turned a corner.
The second play is the same ploay, but shows we still have a ways to go with this offensive line. Basically everyone but Tharp gets beat pretty badly, and there is no room for the RB.
Maybe that's the thing that needs to get figured out offensively, consistency. Even consistently average would get this team to 8 or 9 wins, the offensive staff has got to figure out a way to get to consistently average. You can see them trying in the run game, I am hoping some passing game wrinkles are next. Just like with the offensive line, make it easier for Shough and the receivers, let's see lots of play action, motion, and pocket moving.
Sorry for the offense only discussion, I didn't learn anything about the defense, and that is a good thing when you play Tarleton State. Loved seeing the interceptions, especially Malik's pick 6. Figure out a way to get to the QB and we're good.
