This game is hard for me to write about. As I carried my two-year-old, who had a ridiculously good time irrespective of getting cheated by replay or terribly timed turnovers, to the car I realized that I was not really that upset about this loss. I should have been, it was quite a kick to the crotch, but it kind of feels like Oregon was capable of doing just enough to win, regardless of what the Red Raiders did. That's fine, Oregon has been recruiting and competing at a high level for years, McGuire and Co. are trying to get us to that level. Saturday was a non-sobering reminder that program overhauls take more than a year and a half.
Despite chasing points early, for seemingly no good reason, and untimely penalties, I was happy to see that we appeared to try to win this game. That feels like it should be a given, but we all watched what happened in Laramie. If anything, Saturday night proved how odd that truly was. It was good to see the defense could function without Jacob Rodriguez, and even perform at a high level. Playing inside linebacker against Oregon is one of the harder tasks in college football, but Roberts, Pierre, and Smith all exceeded expectations, and, the defense as a whole, looked good against the run. The offense looked more dynamic and creative, got more playmakers involved, and seemed to find a rhythm that was missing week 1. A lot of that could probably be related to using Shough as a runner, frequently, and forcing Oregon to account for that threat.
On Shough, I know there is only one thing everyone wants to talk about, but I hate backup quarterback talk, I really do. There will be several people that read that and laugh considering a lot of my commentary around Tech football in recent years, but I have been consistent. It reminds of when Tony Soprano told Paulie, “"remember when" is the lowest form of conversation” because with a few adjustments you have another truth about football analysis “backup qb talk is the lowest form of football analysis.” This coaching staff is not making a change, so I'll leave it at this, turnovers have completely derailed both games, and all 4 are not plays I would expect a 6th year, 24 year old to make. There is a way Shough can lead this team to a mildly successful season, but he can no longer be asked to consistently do things he does not have the capability to do. He needs to run, have one read throws, and take off when that read is not there. Honestly, copy Oregon's offensive gameplan, they don't trust Nix at all. (I wrote 800 words on the QB situation, but decided against posting it).
Outside of the turnovers, the reason for the loss can be found on the following two charts.
Havoc refers to the percentage of plays in with the defense recorded a TFL, forced a fumble, intercepted a pass or broke up a pass.
Front Seven Havoc is the percentage of plays in which the defense forced a fumble or a TFL.
DB Havoc is the percentage of plays in which the defense defended or intercepted a pass.
Watching this game, you could feel the lack of Havoc created by the defense, even if you didn't know that was a thing. Oregon did a good job of not allowing Nix to feel pressure by always having a pretty safe outlet available, but there were very few moments when the Ducks' offense felt dictated by the Tech Defense. This is discouraging because, if we were to believe that this team is a conference championship contender, we needed this defense to be incredibly disruptive, to get after the quarterback, and to fly around/make plays in the secondary. So far, outside of snaps where Jacob Rodriguez was on the field, the defense has felt on its heels, especially in moments where the team needs a stop. Honestly, it feels like last year's defense, good enough to not lose you the game, but not good enough to win it. That's fine, just need to adjust expectations.
Expected Points Added (EPA) uses Expected Points to measure the outcome of a play. It takes the EP value from the beginning of a play (e.g. 2nd and 5 at the 50) and subtracts it from the EP value resulting from the play (e.g. rush for 10 yards results in 1st and 10 from the 40).
Expected Points (EP) assumes that not all yard lines are created equal. In other words, each yardline is assigned a point value and measures the number of points that would be expected to be scored based on down, distance, and field position. A negative value means that the opposing team would be expected to score the next points in the game.
Predicted Points Added (PPA) is the same thing as EPA. There are various different models for calculating EPA and EPA. PPA uses this site's custom EPA model.
The passing game must improve. In 2023, you cannot consistently win with a subpar passing attack. Initial watch, and subsequent rewatches, showed that this is not a receiver problem, this is an OLine and QB problem... which is ultimately an OC/OLine coach problem. Our receivers have taken a lot of flack the past year for lacking the necessary "juice" to allow this team to succeed at the highest levels, through two weeks, I'm not concerned about that. They are open early and often on every type of passing concept, they just aren't always getting a chance to show it. There are times when the QB is slow to see/late to deliver the ball, but there are also times where the lack of protection doesn't allow the quarterback to see the open receivers. This needs to be fixed by the time we roll up to Morgantown. I would suggest marrying the passing game to the running game more, protect Shough and the OLine with the threat of run which often forces the defense to show their hand sooner.
Explosiveness measures the average EPA on plays which were marked as successful. It uses this site's EPA implementation (known as PPA).
Don't have a ton here except it's worth pointing out this improvement. Last week you were less explosive than Wyoming, this week you were more explosive than Oregon... let's keep that up.
To the film,
I actually didn't think there was a ton to take from this game, film wise. Sure, those Shough designed runs were great to see, but we saw them all last season, and defensively, you were rarely beat by alignment or poor scheme, you just got beat. So I decided to look at the back breaking drives, for each unit. Offensively, it was the last series before the final field goal. Defensively, it's play that pretty much ended the game.
I love motion, I love getting your playmakers involved in unique ways, and I love making the defense think before they can react, but I'm not sure this first really does that effectively, especially since you had really been leaning on them with your traditional run game. In real time, I loved the idea because I thought all of that dressing was going to lead to a very simple QB run or a shot play with Oregon playing press man coverage and a single high safety. We needed 6 here desperately, and doing all of that just to hand it off, felt like it killed the forward momentum of the drive by running into a loaded box.
Next play, you spread them out, and have a favorable box to work with, instead it's a pass that is basically dead from the start because the center is totally abused by the Oregon NT. These two plays encapsulate my biggest complaint/suggestion moving forward about marrying the pass game and run game to a greater extent. Make it easy on your QB/OLine by throwing from that first down formation, and running from the second down formation. Oregon knows what is coming both times and it allows them to play a certain way and use their greater talent and speed to their advantage. Keeping them guessing evens the playing field.
3rd down, obvious passing down, but Oregon is in a 1 high safety look which, in real time, made me pretty hopeful despite the down and distance. They are worried about the safe play, 3rd down run to ensure a FG try, and have the box loaded considering the situation. The offensive line does a good job creating a workable pocket for Shough, but Shough leaves it for, seemingly, no reason and nearly takes a terrible sack. A couple of things in hindsight, Tech is running 4 verts vs. a single high safety, someone is open, Shough just has to get the safety away with his eyes, which he never does. The number two receiver is breaks inside of him man and has the seam for a touchdown, but I'm not sure Shough ever sees him. Second thing, if Shough escapes the pocket to the left, he may pick up the first down, for a guy that can run like he does, I'd like to see more intuitive scrambling, maybe I'm asking too much. Either way, you kick a field goal there and no one watching feels like that is going to be enough.
Excuse the first part of the video, it's the second play we're looking at. I picked this play for a few reasons, one, it's a good example of what I was taling about with the offense, spread em out to run it, and pack em in to throw it. This is heavy personnel on 1st and 10, both Tech and Oregon are loaded up in the box, and Oregon even gives a play action look to a play they've run a few times to freeze Tech's second level. I know this is a relatively quick hitter, but you can see our DLine is no where near causing Nix a single problem, even if his target wasn't open, there was a huge lane for him to run through. Finally, for the second week in a row, on a huge defensive play, we have a coverage miscommunication. Two guys take the back which leaves a Tight End wide open down the sideline. These stack and bunch formations are difficult for the defense to deal with right now, probably because of all the changing parts in the LB/DB units, but it hurt us on more than this occasion against Oregon. We will see plenty of this in conference play, it's got to be fixed.
Ok, so we aren't as good as we thought we were. That sucks, but it's ok, this is still just year two of what McGuire is building. The good news, for this season, is that everything is still out in front of this team, every game on the schedule is winnable. Almost all of the issues that have plagued this team through a very annoying two weeks are fixable, we just need to see them handle it. I'm choosing to believe that can do it, we'll find out soon enough.
Despite chasing points early, for seemingly no good reason, and untimely penalties, I was happy to see that we appeared to try to win this game. That feels like it should be a given, but we all watched what happened in Laramie. If anything, Saturday night proved how odd that truly was. It was good to see the defense could function without Jacob Rodriguez, and even perform at a high level. Playing inside linebacker against Oregon is one of the harder tasks in college football, but Roberts, Pierre, and Smith all exceeded expectations, and, the defense as a whole, looked good against the run. The offense looked more dynamic and creative, got more playmakers involved, and seemed to find a rhythm that was missing week 1. A lot of that could probably be related to using Shough as a runner, frequently, and forcing Oregon to account for that threat.
On Shough, I know there is only one thing everyone wants to talk about, but I hate backup quarterback talk, I really do. There will be several people that read that and laugh considering a lot of my commentary around Tech football in recent years, but I have been consistent. It reminds of when Tony Soprano told Paulie, “"remember when" is the lowest form of conversation” because with a few adjustments you have another truth about football analysis “backup qb talk is the lowest form of football analysis.” This coaching staff is not making a change, so I'll leave it at this, turnovers have completely derailed both games, and all 4 are not plays I would expect a 6th year, 24 year old to make. There is a way Shough can lead this team to a mildly successful season, but he can no longer be asked to consistently do things he does not have the capability to do. He needs to run, have one read throws, and take off when that read is not there. Honestly, copy Oregon's offensive gameplan, they don't trust Nix at all. (I wrote 800 words on the QB situation, but decided against posting it).
Outside of the turnovers, the reason for the loss can be found on the following two charts.
Havoc refers to the percentage of plays in with the defense recorded a TFL, forced a fumble, intercepted a pass or broke up a pass.
Front Seven Havoc is the percentage of plays in which the defense forced a fumble or a TFL.
DB Havoc is the percentage of plays in which the defense defended or intercepted a pass.
Watching this game, you could feel the lack of Havoc created by the defense, even if you didn't know that was a thing. Oregon did a good job of not allowing Nix to feel pressure by always having a pretty safe outlet available, but there were very few moments when the Ducks' offense felt dictated by the Tech Defense. This is discouraging because, if we were to believe that this team is a conference championship contender, we needed this defense to be incredibly disruptive, to get after the quarterback, and to fly around/make plays in the secondary. So far, outside of snaps where Jacob Rodriguez was on the field, the defense has felt on its heels, especially in moments where the team needs a stop. Honestly, it feels like last year's defense, good enough to not lose you the game, but not good enough to win it. That's fine, just need to adjust expectations.
Expected Points Added (EPA) uses Expected Points to measure the outcome of a play. It takes the EP value from the beginning of a play (e.g. 2nd and 5 at the 50) and subtracts it from the EP value resulting from the play (e.g. rush for 10 yards results in 1st and 10 from the 40).
Expected Points (EP) assumes that not all yard lines are created equal. In other words, each yardline is assigned a point value and measures the number of points that would be expected to be scored based on down, distance, and field position. A negative value means that the opposing team would be expected to score the next points in the game.
Predicted Points Added (PPA) is the same thing as EPA. There are various different models for calculating EPA and EPA. PPA uses this site's custom EPA model.
The passing game must improve. In 2023, you cannot consistently win with a subpar passing attack. Initial watch, and subsequent rewatches, showed that this is not a receiver problem, this is an OLine and QB problem... which is ultimately an OC/OLine coach problem. Our receivers have taken a lot of flack the past year for lacking the necessary "juice" to allow this team to succeed at the highest levels, through two weeks, I'm not concerned about that. They are open early and often on every type of passing concept, they just aren't always getting a chance to show it. There are times when the QB is slow to see/late to deliver the ball, but there are also times where the lack of protection doesn't allow the quarterback to see the open receivers. This needs to be fixed by the time we roll up to Morgantown. I would suggest marrying the passing game to the running game more, protect Shough and the OLine with the threat of run which often forces the defense to show their hand sooner.
Explosiveness measures the average EPA on plays which were marked as successful. It uses this site's EPA implementation (known as PPA).
Don't have a ton here except it's worth pointing out this improvement. Last week you were less explosive than Wyoming, this week you were more explosive than Oregon... let's keep that up.
To the film,
I actually didn't think there was a ton to take from this game, film wise. Sure, those Shough designed runs were great to see, but we saw them all last season, and defensively, you were rarely beat by alignment or poor scheme, you just got beat. So I decided to look at the back breaking drives, for each unit. Offensively, it was the last series before the final field goal. Defensively, it's play that pretty much ended the game.
I love motion, I love getting your playmakers involved in unique ways, and I love making the defense think before they can react, but I'm not sure this first really does that effectively, especially since you had really been leaning on them with your traditional run game. In real time, I loved the idea because I thought all of that dressing was going to lead to a very simple QB run or a shot play with Oregon playing press man coverage and a single high safety. We needed 6 here desperately, and doing all of that just to hand it off, felt like it killed the forward momentum of the drive by running into a loaded box.
Next play, you spread them out, and have a favorable box to work with, instead it's a pass that is basically dead from the start because the center is totally abused by the Oregon NT. These two plays encapsulate my biggest complaint/suggestion moving forward about marrying the pass game and run game to a greater extent. Make it easy on your QB/OLine by throwing from that first down formation, and running from the second down formation. Oregon knows what is coming both times and it allows them to play a certain way and use their greater talent and speed to their advantage. Keeping them guessing evens the playing field.
3rd down, obvious passing down, but Oregon is in a 1 high safety look which, in real time, made me pretty hopeful despite the down and distance. They are worried about the safe play, 3rd down run to ensure a FG try, and have the box loaded considering the situation. The offensive line does a good job creating a workable pocket for Shough, but Shough leaves it for, seemingly, no reason and nearly takes a terrible sack. A couple of things in hindsight, Tech is running 4 verts vs. a single high safety, someone is open, Shough just has to get the safety away with his eyes, which he never does. The number two receiver is breaks inside of him man and has the seam for a touchdown, but I'm not sure Shough ever sees him. Second thing, if Shough escapes the pocket to the left, he may pick up the first down, for a guy that can run like he does, I'd like to see more intuitive scrambling, maybe I'm asking too much. Either way, you kick a field goal there and no one watching feels like that is going to be enough.
Excuse the first part of the video, it's the second play we're looking at. I picked this play for a few reasons, one, it's a good example of what I was taling about with the offense, spread em out to run it, and pack em in to throw it. This is heavy personnel on 1st and 10, both Tech and Oregon are loaded up in the box, and Oregon even gives a play action look to a play they've run a few times to freeze Tech's second level. I know this is a relatively quick hitter, but you can see our DLine is no where near causing Nix a single problem, even if his target wasn't open, there was a huge lane for him to run through. Finally, for the second week in a row, on a huge defensive play, we have a coverage miscommunication. Two guys take the back which leaves a Tight End wide open down the sideline. These stack and bunch formations are difficult for the defense to deal with right now, probably because of all the changing parts in the LB/DB units, but it hurt us on more than this occasion against Oregon. We will see plenty of this in conference play, it's got to be fixed.
Ok, so we aren't as good as we thought we were. That sucks, but it's ok, this is still just year two of what McGuire is building. The good news, for this season, is that everything is still out in front of this team, every game on the schedule is winnable. Almost all of the issues that have plagued this team through a very annoying two weeks are fixable, we just need to see them handle it. I'm choosing to believe that can do it, we'll find out soon enough.
