Sitting in my seat, watching the frustrating display unfold, I started to feel pretty dumb about my confidence going into this week. I predicted a pretty lopsided Texas Tech victory, can’t remember exactly but it was something like 51-24, and as the terrible impending doom of a Houston victory started to wash over me, I wondered how I could have fallen into this trap and completely misread the game. Then, the impossible happened, just as defeat was being snatched from the jaws of victory, somehow, almost inexplicably, victory was snatched back again.
With a few days of reflection, I think I have finally squared the dissonance in my confidence vs. what actually happened, the offensive line is substantially worse than I thought. I saw no situation, except ultimate disaster, in which the Houston defense could consistently stop the Kittley’s offense, and yet, the scoreboard said otherwise. There were other problems for sure; a few throws Donovan would rather have back, bad routes, drops, missed assignments, but an average to slightly below average offensive line performance would have led to a cruising victory for the Red Raiders.
This is a weird issue because I don’t think anyone is drastically underperforming expectation, except Caleb Rogers, and I don’t think coaching is holding them back. This appears to be the simplest, and most frustrating, problem of just not having the dudes. I don’t think this should drastically change anyone’s excitement level of what’s to come or what can be accomplished this season, considering the majority of us knew this unit had been drastically underserved, but we are just seeing the ceiling this reality puts on any dreams of overachievement.
Anyway, to the film…
So let’s start with the o line, the biggest issue, which led to #7’s erratic play, was the quickness with which Houston was getting into the backfield and the amount of individuals getting beat. A guy like Donovan, as we saw in this game, can make something out of nothing when one man gets beat, or one side, but when he’s surrounded like he was in this first play and several other times, what’s he supposed to do? There’s nowhere to go except backwards, and maybe he does need to develop that Tony Romo spin move if his blindside is going to be that vulnerable. Center to Left Tackle here is pretty embarrassing, I like what your right side is doing, and I’m not totally sure that Jacoby Jackson isn’t your best lineman right now. I also need a much better chip from Tahj, watch what Fournette did to Parson’s last night.
Second play, this is a called QB Draw. The secret to this is, it should be a very easy blocking scheme. The tackles “rodeo” the ends, invite them to rush up field and then escort them out of the play. The interior guys just take their man where he wants to go. Just create a hole that the lead blocker can find, and that Donovan can follow. As you can see in the clip, the tackles to a good job, and the interior is an absolute mess.
There are ways to scheme out some of these issues, I don’t really need to see another running play that isn’t a gap scheme, but some of this is just going to be our reality for this season.
Okay, let’s look at the interceptions.
The first one is flat out a bad throw (and a great play by #23), it’s a tough read due to the proximity of the routes and the well-done BANJO coverage from Houston to counteract Tech’s stacked alignment. If Donovan puts this ball on the goal line, Tharp may be dead because of the safety coming over, but at least it’s not a pick. The obvious throw here is to Sparkman, put that at the pylon and it’s a TD.
The pick six is the toughest to defend because I’m not sure what’s even going on or what was supposed to happen. It looks like an RPO, but I’m not sure what is being read, and Donovan is not even looking to that side. If it’s a box count, it’s 6v6 which usually means hand it off. Looks like a good idea (get an easy 5) with terrible execution. What he tried to do is open to both outside receivers.
The last one is incredibly frustrating for a number of reasons, least of which being Donovan. I don’t think Donovan, or the offense, should have been in this situation. The moment you get the penalty on the punt return, take this thing to overtime. If that’s too conservative for you, the second you are sacked on first down, take this thing to overtime. The pass play on second down, should’ve, sealed the win for Houston because punting to Dell from your goal line is an even worse idea than throwing this interception.
This again goes back to my question concerning Donovan for much of this game, what was he supposed to do? He’s put in an impossible situation here. He is about to get sandwiched for a game ending safety so he can’t step into a throw, and still puts the Houston DB in a situation where he has to make a really good play or that might be six for the guys in black. (Side note: It may be harsh, but Loic needs to be breaking that up). This was an awful play, but there are a lot of people to blame here.
This next clip has two of my favorite offensive plays.
I love a nub formation because of what it forces the defense to do with their safeties, and that gives the QB and WRs much easier reads. Anyway, the main reason I picked this play is because I can’t stop watching Boyd and Bradley block. It is a thing of beauty. This will pay dividends when 10 yard plays turn into 30. It’s nice to have Emmett Jones back.
The second play is just an absolutely absurd throw from Donovan, one that he made several times actually, but I liked this one because of his patience to step into it as the pocket was collapsing. That is THE NFL throw, 20 yard out from the opposite hash. Great route and catch by Trey Cleveland as well.
I wish I had more to write about with the defense, not because they were bad or uninspiring, they were almost exceptionally boring, which is awesome. They played incredibly sound and fundamental fronts and coverages. They kept one of the most explosive players in college football under control, except for two plays (one was arguably OPI), disrupted both the run and passing game with their fronts, and got two takeaways.
Of all the good, I think my favorite play, or at least the one that got the most guttural reaction out of me, was Phil Blidi’s shoestring tackle on the screen that was about to go for a big play. I did not think he had that in his bag, he’s a dude.
Speaking of screens, that may be what this defense is most susceptible to moving forward, which makes sense due to their aggressive nature. UH converted a few longer 2nd and 3rd downs with screens and even scored on one in OT. This clip is an example of that, luckily, great pursuit leads to a turnover. The key to these is just limiting the damage, you’re going to “get got” a few times, just have them go for first downs, not touchdowns.
This last clip almost makes me cry, it’s just so beautiful. It’s a Tech defense that is dropping 8 effectively. If you read my breakdowns the past two seasons you know my frustration when Tech has dropped 8 in the past, there was no movement, just standing, flat footed, in their zones. No one looking for work or passing guys off, just standing where they were told in practice. Watch this clip, this is nowhere near that, guys are moving constantly. This could become a weapon for the Tech D. Not only is the Back 8 night and day from last season, watch the Front 3, they don’t get to Tune but they make him uncomfortable enough to leave the pocket and cut the field in half.
To be honest with y’all, these types of wins are some of my favorites. Ugly, back and forth, neither team really deserving to win it or lose it; just looking for a few guys on each side that will step up or back down. We learned a lot about some this team, and some key individuals in particular, that will be valuable when the games really start to count… just got to figure out something on this offensive line.
As for the “which QB played better?” discussion, I’ll turn to some analytics, which back up by eyes.
Predicted Points Added (PPA) is the same thing as EPA. There are various different models for calculating EPA and EPA. PPA uses this site's custom EPA model. Expected Points Added (EPA) uses Expected Points to measure the outcome of a play. It takes the EP value from the beginning of a play (e.g. 2nd and 5 at the 50) and subtracts it from the EP value resulting from the play (e.g. rush for 10 yards results in 1st and 10 from the 40). Expected Points (EP) assumes that not all yard lines are created equal. In other words, each yardline is assigned a point value and measures the number of points that would be expected to be scored based on down, distance, and field position. A negative value means that the opposing team would be expected to score the next points in the game.
With a few days of reflection, I think I have finally squared the dissonance in my confidence vs. what actually happened, the offensive line is substantially worse than I thought. I saw no situation, except ultimate disaster, in which the Houston defense could consistently stop the Kittley’s offense, and yet, the scoreboard said otherwise. There were other problems for sure; a few throws Donovan would rather have back, bad routes, drops, missed assignments, but an average to slightly below average offensive line performance would have led to a cruising victory for the Red Raiders.
This is a weird issue because I don’t think anyone is drastically underperforming expectation, except Caleb Rogers, and I don’t think coaching is holding them back. This appears to be the simplest, and most frustrating, problem of just not having the dudes. I don’t think this should drastically change anyone’s excitement level of what’s to come or what can be accomplished this season, considering the majority of us knew this unit had been drastically underserved, but we are just seeing the ceiling this reality puts on any dreams of overachievement.
Anyway, to the film…
So let’s start with the o line, the biggest issue, which led to #7’s erratic play, was the quickness with which Houston was getting into the backfield and the amount of individuals getting beat. A guy like Donovan, as we saw in this game, can make something out of nothing when one man gets beat, or one side, but when he’s surrounded like he was in this first play and several other times, what’s he supposed to do? There’s nowhere to go except backwards, and maybe he does need to develop that Tony Romo spin move if his blindside is going to be that vulnerable. Center to Left Tackle here is pretty embarrassing, I like what your right side is doing, and I’m not totally sure that Jacoby Jackson isn’t your best lineman right now. I also need a much better chip from Tahj, watch what Fournette did to Parson’s last night.
Second play, this is a called QB Draw. The secret to this is, it should be a very easy blocking scheme. The tackles “rodeo” the ends, invite them to rush up field and then escort them out of the play. The interior guys just take their man where he wants to go. Just create a hole that the lead blocker can find, and that Donovan can follow. As you can see in the clip, the tackles to a good job, and the interior is an absolute mess.
There are ways to scheme out some of these issues, I don’t really need to see another running play that isn’t a gap scheme, but some of this is just going to be our reality for this season.
Okay, let’s look at the interceptions.
The first one is flat out a bad throw (and a great play by #23), it’s a tough read due to the proximity of the routes and the well-done BANJO coverage from Houston to counteract Tech’s stacked alignment. If Donovan puts this ball on the goal line, Tharp may be dead because of the safety coming over, but at least it’s not a pick. The obvious throw here is to Sparkman, put that at the pylon and it’s a TD.
The pick six is the toughest to defend because I’m not sure what’s even going on or what was supposed to happen. It looks like an RPO, but I’m not sure what is being read, and Donovan is not even looking to that side. If it’s a box count, it’s 6v6 which usually means hand it off. Looks like a good idea (get an easy 5) with terrible execution. What he tried to do is open to both outside receivers.
The last one is incredibly frustrating for a number of reasons, least of which being Donovan. I don’t think Donovan, or the offense, should have been in this situation. The moment you get the penalty on the punt return, take this thing to overtime. If that’s too conservative for you, the second you are sacked on first down, take this thing to overtime. The pass play on second down, should’ve, sealed the win for Houston because punting to Dell from your goal line is an even worse idea than throwing this interception.
This again goes back to my question concerning Donovan for much of this game, what was he supposed to do? He’s put in an impossible situation here. He is about to get sandwiched for a game ending safety so he can’t step into a throw, and still puts the Houston DB in a situation where he has to make a really good play or that might be six for the guys in black. (Side note: It may be harsh, but Loic needs to be breaking that up). This was an awful play, but there are a lot of people to blame here.
This next clip has two of my favorite offensive plays.
I love a nub formation because of what it forces the defense to do with their safeties, and that gives the QB and WRs much easier reads. Anyway, the main reason I picked this play is because I can’t stop watching Boyd and Bradley block. It is a thing of beauty. This will pay dividends when 10 yard plays turn into 30. It’s nice to have Emmett Jones back.
The second play is just an absolutely absurd throw from Donovan, one that he made several times actually, but I liked this one because of his patience to step into it as the pocket was collapsing. That is THE NFL throw, 20 yard out from the opposite hash. Great route and catch by Trey Cleveland as well.
I wish I had more to write about with the defense, not because they were bad or uninspiring, they were almost exceptionally boring, which is awesome. They played incredibly sound and fundamental fronts and coverages. They kept one of the most explosive players in college football under control, except for two plays (one was arguably OPI), disrupted both the run and passing game with their fronts, and got two takeaways.
Of all the good, I think my favorite play, or at least the one that got the most guttural reaction out of me, was Phil Blidi’s shoestring tackle on the screen that was about to go for a big play. I did not think he had that in his bag, he’s a dude.
Speaking of screens, that may be what this defense is most susceptible to moving forward, which makes sense due to their aggressive nature. UH converted a few longer 2nd and 3rd downs with screens and even scored on one in OT. This clip is an example of that, luckily, great pursuit leads to a turnover. The key to these is just limiting the damage, you’re going to “get got” a few times, just have them go for first downs, not touchdowns.
This last clip almost makes me cry, it’s just so beautiful. It’s a Tech defense that is dropping 8 effectively. If you read my breakdowns the past two seasons you know my frustration when Tech has dropped 8 in the past, there was no movement, just standing, flat footed, in their zones. No one looking for work or passing guys off, just standing where they were told in practice. Watch this clip, this is nowhere near that, guys are moving constantly. This could become a weapon for the Tech D. Not only is the Back 8 night and day from last season, watch the Front 3, they don’t get to Tune but they make him uncomfortable enough to leave the pocket and cut the field in half.
To be honest with y’all, these types of wins are some of my favorites. Ugly, back and forth, neither team really deserving to win it or lose it; just looking for a few guys on each side that will step up or back down. We learned a lot about some this team, and some key individuals in particular, that will be valuable when the games really start to count… just got to figure out something on this offensive line.
As for the “which QB played better?” discussion, I’ll turn to some analytics, which back up by eyes.
Predicted Points Added (PPA) is the same thing as EPA. There are various different models for calculating EPA and EPA. PPA uses this site's custom EPA model. Expected Points Added (EPA) uses Expected Points to measure the outcome of a play. It takes the EP value from the beginning of a play (e.g. 2nd and 5 at the 50) and subtracts it from the EP value resulting from the play (e.g. rush for 10 yards results in 1st and 10 from the 40). Expected Points (EP) assumes that not all yard lines are created equal. In other words, each yardline is assigned a point value and measures the number of points that would be expected to be scored based on down, distance, and field position. A negative value means that the opposing team would be expected to score the next points in the game.
