Not to brag, but I’m going to brag I called the USC to B1G move last summer – there was just too much money USC would be giving up staying in a lame duck conference. Plus UT/OU gave them the blueprint on how/when to make the move. (It also didn’t hurt that the media by and large championed the move from UT/OU to the SEC so USC could feel comfortable they would not receive any blowback outside of a few upset schools in the PAC 12.)
Below are my thoughts. You can read them if you want or you don’t have to. I’m not your mom I’m not going to tell you what to do.
FYI – much like Vampire Weekend – I do not give one single **** about an oxford comma.
1. I’m fairly certain both the SEC and B1G are done expanding for the time being. Remember – each time a conference expands the threshold to add a new school becomes that much higher. Projections that I’ve seen are the B1G with the USC/UCLA raid may push them to around $100mil annually per school payout and the SEC, once UT and OU join, will push them north of $75mil annually. Realistically I can only think of 3 schools right now that would add value to either the SEC or B1G – Notre Dame to either conference or Florida State and Clemson to the SEC.
Any other school that may be potentially picked up by either conference is not going to bring equal or additional value to that conference. Either conference would be picking up a school (think Washington (Seattle), Stanford (San Francisco), Arizona State (Phoenix) or even Colorado (Denver)) solely for market purposes and potential. None of the schools make the B1G or SEC money the day they walk in. So why would the B1G or SEC be in a rush to add additional schools at the moment? On top of that it’s not like Washington or Oregon are ever going to say no to an invite to the B1G as the money is just too outrageous to think on it for two seconds. The B1G knows they can offer whomever they want whenever they want out of the schools that are remaining and they’ll get an immediate yes – doesn’t matter where Washington or Oregon ultimately ends up. Same applies to SEC if there was a market they coveted (maybe Charlotte?) – they can offer UNC whenever and get the yes immediately.
There is no rush here when the three schools these conferences covet are locked in for another 14 years. Which brings me to my next point…
2. The ACC is dead man walking. The SEC and B1G are licking their chops to pick off the corpse of the ACC by nabbing at least the three current schools I mentioned above. It’s just a matter of time, 14 years to be exact, before ND bolts for the B1G and FSU and Clemson bolt for the SEC and there isn’t a damn thing the ACC can do about it.
What is the ACC going to expand so they can re-do their TV deal? OK – who the hell are they going to add that’s going to add at least $40mil to their current TV deal? Is KU really going to leave the Big 12 to go to the ACC when they know it’s going to implode in 2036? Again, the money is going to be so astronomically different for Clemson, FSU and Notre Dame that there is no way they are going to vote expand their media rights past the current deal.
It will be fun to see all the courting and flirting, but I can’t imagine the official invites go out to the ACC schools until like 2032 (which is a decade from now!). College football is going to go through like 17 more changes by then, but the train is already headed down those tracks to pick up those schools and bone college sports yet again.
So what the hell is Boston College, Wake Forest and Louisville going to do? It feels like that scene from Austin Powers where the steamroller is about to run over the guy. Like it’s coming so slow and you’ve got plenty of time to get out of the way, but it’s still going to run over them even if it takes a decade and half to do so.
So the ACC is boned, but what happens to the Big 12? Well funny you should ask…
3. I kept thinking about what makes more sense yesterday – for the PAC 12 to somehow be absorbed by the Big 12, for a few Big 12 schools to join the PAC 12 or vice versa? Logically I think, out of those options, the plan that makes the most sense is for the Big 12 to take on four or six PAC 12 schools and tell the rest to kick rocks. However, I could never really settle on enough schools.
I mean let’s talk this out for a second. I’m the Big 12 and now I’ve got all these hoes blowing up my phone wanting a piece of my action. Do I go media markets first – Arizona State, Colorado, Stanford and Washington? No way am I saying too bad to Oregon – that makes no sense. So OK not four schools then so we know we are taking 5 – who is the sixth? Utah? Arizona? California? None of those are really that impressive all on their own.
Well who says I have to stop at six – let’s go ahead and take eight? Let’s take Arizona State, Colorado, Stanford, Washington, California, Utah, Oregon and Arizona. Now we have a 20 team league that is pretty strong, but let’s be honest you still have some dead weight in your current conference, plus what do you do about Washington State and Oregon State? Seems weird to do all this work for two teams to be left holding the bag. Thems may just be the breaks, but…
I kept thinking about it and you know what got me the most excited? You get some balls and create a new conference of 16 teams and almost no dead weight.
Arizona, Arizona State, BYU, California, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Stanford, TCU, Texas Tech, Utah, Washington
I know the haters our there will say absolutely not to TCU and Houston (and to a certain degree they are dead weight), however it does get you deeper into the 5 & 8th media markets in the United States plus they have non-stop flights everywhere into DFW and Houston so the traveling aspect makes it easier too.
You’d have games on CST and PST plus you’d own a majority of the interest from west of Austin. The road trips would be phenomenal (hey Texas - have fun going to the buttholes of Alabama and Mississippi, you losers).
Plus I think Baylor, WVU, Cincinnati, UCF, Oregon State & Washington State is the start to a fun league. Yes it’s vastly inferior, but it would be neat to see those little guys duke it out.
4. I would hate to be an AD or University President right now. College athletics by and large is now a sham for them to make money on the backs of the ‘student athlete experience.’ You can’t convince me that it’s going to be a better experience for a USC baseball play to go freeze his ass off in March/April in Minnesota and Happy Valley back-to-back weeks over having a much shorter trip to Phoenix or Salt Lake City.
And I know these students are going to travel in private charters and they are going to have the best equipment and facilities to train at. But do we really think that USC playing Penn State every year now is better than them playing Colorado? Plus doesn’t ever sport have a playoff in place? You’ll literally get to play the best teams if you win enough. It’s just ridiculous the need to feel like you have to keep keeping up with the Jonses.
I wish the NCAA wasn’t spineless and would actually give a damn about the athlete’s experience. Right now the athletic department is having to virtually act like a professional sports agent and negotiating with everyone for the best fit and money. It’s just stupid.
5. It feels like the media believes, by and large, the B1G and SEC are setting up for a 20 or 24 league showdown with an inevitable ‘super bowl’ between the winners of each conference each year. But I don’t think the SEC really cares if the B1G is involved.
I think the SEC is perfectly happy to let Alabama play Georgia for the national title or LSU play Oklahoma. They could care less about having to play a B1G school for anything. If it was up to the SEC the playoff would be four or eight SEC schools and they’d play each other to find out who the ‘one true champion’ really is. So I really sort of wonder if the B1G has a plan or if it’s just being reactionary to the SEC. I do think the B1G is interested in working with the SEC to create the most exciting and financial lucrative playoff format… I’m just not sure the feeling is reciprocated.
6. There are going to be a lot of teams left out unfortunately which I think it make it imperative that there remain at least two separate sub-conferences like the Big 12 and ACC. It doesn’t matter if the end number is 20 or 24 for B1G or SEC – there are going to be ‘big’ schools that are not invited while Northwestern and Vanderbilt get a shot every year. Lol out loud.
If both the B1G and SEC have 16 schools each and we can all agree even though both conferences have dead weight, but they won’t throw them out – there is no precedent to do so – then there are only 8 to 16 spots left.
And let’s go ahead and reserve Notre Dame, FSU, Clemson, North Carolina, Arizona State, Washington, (some due to the actual school and some due to the market they are in) that will eventually get invites. That leaves anywhere from 2 to 10 spots left. Look at all the schools that are left.
Miami, Louisville, Texas Tech, North Carolina State, Duke, Oregon, California, Oklahoma State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Stanford, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Iowa State, Utah, Colorado, Arizona.
Plus your ‘others’ like Kansas State, TCU, Houston, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Baylor (who does have a bunch of hardware this past decade), Oregon State, Washington State, WVU, Cincinnati, UCF.
Ultimately it feels like there are going to be 12 to 16 pretty decent sized schools that get left out and that’s a damn shame.
7. I love college football realignment szn.
If this doesn’t end with Tech in a new conference or an extremely made over new conference then what the hell has this all even been about then?
Below are my thoughts. You can read them if you want or you don’t have to. I’m not your mom I’m not going to tell you what to do.
FYI – much like Vampire Weekend – I do not give one single **** about an oxford comma.
1. I’m fairly certain both the SEC and B1G are done expanding for the time being. Remember – each time a conference expands the threshold to add a new school becomes that much higher. Projections that I’ve seen are the B1G with the USC/UCLA raid may push them to around $100mil annually per school payout and the SEC, once UT and OU join, will push them north of $75mil annually. Realistically I can only think of 3 schools right now that would add value to either the SEC or B1G – Notre Dame to either conference or Florida State and Clemson to the SEC.
Any other school that may be potentially picked up by either conference is not going to bring equal or additional value to that conference. Either conference would be picking up a school (think Washington (Seattle), Stanford (San Francisco), Arizona State (Phoenix) or even Colorado (Denver)) solely for market purposes and potential. None of the schools make the B1G or SEC money the day they walk in. So why would the B1G or SEC be in a rush to add additional schools at the moment? On top of that it’s not like Washington or Oregon are ever going to say no to an invite to the B1G as the money is just too outrageous to think on it for two seconds. The B1G knows they can offer whomever they want whenever they want out of the schools that are remaining and they’ll get an immediate yes – doesn’t matter where Washington or Oregon ultimately ends up. Same applies to SEC if there was a market they coveted (maybe Charlotte?) – they can offer UNC whenever and get the yes immediately.
There is no rush here when the three schools these conferences covet are locked in for another 14 years. Which brings me to my next point…
2. The ACC is dead man walking. The SEC and B1G are licking their chops to pick off the corpse of the ACC by nabbing at least the three current schools I mentioned above. It’s just a matter of time, 14 years to be exact, before ND bolts for the B1G and FSU and Clemson bolt for the SEC and there isn’t a damn thing the ACC can do about it.
What is the ACC going to expand so they can re-do their TV deal? OK – who the hell are they going to add that’s going to add at least $40mil to their current TV deal? Is KU really going to leave the Big 12 to go to the ACC when they know it’s going to implode in 2036? Again, the money is going to be so astronomically different for Clemson, FSU and Notre Dame that there is no way they are going to vote expand their media rights past the current deal.
It will be fun to see all the courting and flirting, but I can’t imagine the official invites go out to the ACC schools until like 2032 (which is a decade from now!). College football is going to go through like 17 more changes by then, but the train is already headed down those tracks to pick up those schools and bone college sports yet again.
So what the hell is Boston College, Wake Forest and Louisville going to do? It feels like that scene from Austin Powers where the steamroller is about to run over the guy. Like it’s coming so slow and you’ve got plenty of time to get out of the way, but it’s still going to run over them even if it takes a decade and half to do so.
So the ACC is boned, but what happens to the Big 12? Well funny you should ask…
3. I kept thinking about what makes more sense yesterday – for the PAC 12 to somehow be absorbed by the Big 12, for a few Big 12 schools to join the PAC 12 or vice versa? Logically I think, out of those options, the plan that makes the most sense is for the Big 12 to take on four or six PAC 12 schools and tell the rest to kick rocks. However, I could never really settle on enough schools.
I mean let’s talk this out for a second. I’m the Big 12 and now I’ve got all these hoes blowing up my phone wanting a piece of my action. Do I go media markets first – Arizona State, Colorado, Stanford and Washington? No way am I saying too bad to Oregon – that makes no sense. So OK not four schools then so we know we are taking 5 – who is the sixth? Utah? Arizona? California? None of those are really that impressive all on their own.
Well who says I have to stop at six – let’s go ahead and take eight? Let’s take Arizona State, Colorado, Stanford, Washington, California, Utah, Oregon and Arizona. Now we have a 20 team league that is pretty strong, but let’s be honest you still have some dead weight in your current conference, plus what do you do about Washington State and Oregon State? Seems weird to do all this work for two teams to be left holding the bag. Thems may just be the breaks, but…
I kept thinking about it and you know what got me the most excited? You get some balls and create a new conference of 16 teams and almost no dead weight.
Arizona, Arizona State, BYU, California, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Stanford, TCU, Texas Tech, Utah, Washington
I know the haters our there will say absolutely not to TCU and Houston (and to a certain degree they are dead weight), however it does get you deeper into the 5 & 8th media markets in the United States plus they have non-stop flights everywhere into DFW and Houston so the traveling aspect makes it easier too.
You’d have games on CST and PST plus you’d own a majority of the interest from west of Austin. The road trips would be phenomenal (hey Texas - have fun going to the buttholes of Alabama and Mississippi, you losers).
Plus I think Baylor, WVU, Cincinnati, UCF, Oregon State & Washington State is the start to a fun league. Yes it’s vastly inferior, but it would be neat to see those little guys duke it out.
4. I would hate to be an AD or University President right now. College athletics by and large is now a sham for them to make money on the backs of the ‘student athlete experience.’ You can’t convince me that it’s going to be a better experience for a USC baseball play to go freeze his ass off in March/April in Minnesota and Happy Valley back-to-back weeks over having a much shorter trip to Phoenix or Salt Lake City.
And I know these students are going to travel in private charters and they are going to have the best equipment and facilities to train at. But do we really think that USC playing Penn State every year now is better than them playing Colorado? Plus doesn’t ever sport have a playoff in place? You’ll literally get to play the best teams if you win enough. It’s just ridiculous the need to feel like you have to keep keeping up with the Jonses.
I wish the NCAA wasn’t spineless and would actually give a damn about the athlete’s experience. Right now the athletic department is having to virtually act like a professional sports agent and negotiating with everyone for the best fit and money. It’s just stupid.
5. It feels like the media believes, by and large, the B1G and SEC are setting up for a 20 or 24 league showdown with an inevitable ‘super bowl’ between the winners of each conference each year. But I don’t think the SEC really cares if the B1G is involved.
I think the SEC is perfectly happy to let Alabama play Georgia for the national title or LSU play Oklahoma. They could care less about having to play a B1G school for anything. If it was up to the SEC the playoff would be four or eight SEC schools and they’d play each other to find out who the ‘one true champion’ really is. So I really sort of wonder if the B1G has a plan or if it’s just being reactionary to the SEC. I do think the B1G is interested in working with the SEC to create the most exciting and financial lucrative playoff format… I’m just not sure the feeling is reciprocated.
6. There are going to be a lot of teams left out unfortunately which I think it make it imperative that there remain at least two separate sub-conferences like the Big 12 and ACC. It doesn’t matter if the end number is 20 or 24 for B1G or SEC – there are going to be ‘big’ schools that are not invited while Northwestern and Vanderbilt get a shot every year. Lol out loud.
If both the B1G and SEC have 16 schools each and we can all agree even though both conferences have dead weight, but they won’t throw them out – there is no precedent to do so – then there are only 8 to 16 spots left.
And let’s go ahead and reserve Notre Dame, FSU, Clemson, North Carolina, Arizona State, Washington, (some due to the actual school and some due to the market they are in) that will eventually get invites. That leaves anywhere from 2 to 10 spots left. Look at all the schools that are left.
Miami, Louisville, Texas Tech, North Carolina State, Duke, Oregon, California, Oklahoma State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Stanford, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Iowa State, Utah, Colorado, Arizona.
Plus your ‘others’ like Kansas State, TCU, Houston, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Baylor (who does have a bunch of hardware this past decade), Oregon State, Washington State, WVU, Cincinnati, UCF.
Ultimately it feels like there are going to be 12 to 16 pretty decent sized schools that get left out and that’s a damn shame.
7. I love college football realignment szn.
If this doesn’t end with Tech in a new conference or an extremely made over new conference then what the hell has this all even been about then?
