All season long, I have been saying that the D-I national meet was going to be very kind to the Tech women's team and less kind to the men's team. The reason I have changed my tune can be summed up in two words: Gil Roberts. Suddenly, in 2009, Tech has a difference maker on the men's team. Therefore, when I looked at the rankings nationally, I think the men's and women's team could come in with very similar points and the men could even outscore the women - with both programs finishing in the top 20 at nationals. The reason the men won't finish in the top 10 can also be summed up in 2 words - Omo Osaghae. When Omo false started in the finals of the regional meet and thus invoked that asinine rule that a falst start at regional keeps you out of the national meet, even if you have the 2nd fastest time in the nation, Tech lost out on 5-8 points at the national meet.
The national meet is so different than any other meet on the Tech schedule, even than the conference meet. At the national meet, for all races from 800 meters and shorter, there are TWO rounds of prelims and then a final. 16 runners progress out of the opening round and then the fastest 8 in the semis move on to the finals. In the 1500, steeple and 5K, there is one round of prelims and then 12 people go to the finals. So, you can make the finals of the distance races and still 4 of the people in the final will not score a point. Imagine running 2 steeplechases or 2 5K's and not getting anything for it. In the relays, there are prelims as well and the top 8 move into the finals.
In the field events, there are also prelims. After the opening rounds of throws/jumps, the top 12 progress to the finals AND the distances/heights from the first round DO NOT carryover to the final round. You can set a world record in the prelims and then scratch all three jumps in the finals and not score a point. I think it is a stupid rule NOT to carryover the prelim performances, but no one from the NCAA ever asked me my opinion on it.
That said, the first day will tell us a great deal about the Red Raider chances, as you have prelims in following field events:
HT - Ozie Okoliie
SP - Harrison Benjamin
LJ - Darrell Roddick
SP - Patience Knight
And, prelims in the following running events:
800 - Asia Diaz
100 (first round and semis in one day) - Terra Evans
400H - Sandra Iwunze
400 - Gil Roberts
Steeple - Gilbert Limo
5K - Lillian Badaru
The scary thing about all of those prelims, is that by the time Tech runs in the 4X400 finals on Saturday afternoon (presuming they MAKE the finals), Gil Roberts could have already run the quarter 5 times in 4 days (open 400 in the opening round, the semis, and the finals and the 4X400 in both the prelims and finals.)
So, with that as a background, here are my predictions:
WOMEN (with their current rank after the name)
Terra Evans in the 100(14) - I think she makes the semis, but not the finals. No points, but a lot of experience for the top college freshman sprinter in the U.S.
Asia Diaz in the 800(18) - a superb senior year for Asia probably takes her to the semis, but not to the finals
Gladys Kipsang in the 1500 (18) - running very well right now, has improved drastically at the conference and regional meets. She might make the finals just barely (something like the 11th or 12th best time), but I just don't see her scoring at nationals.
Lillian Badaru in the 5K (25) - actually, she is only 15 seconds off out of the top 8, she has improved 30 seconds in two meets, the conference and regional meets, from earlier in the season. I think she might make the finals, but not score, finishing somewhere around 10th or 11th.
Sandra Iwunze in the 400H (17) - she is another one who I think makes the semis, but probably not the finals.
Patience Knight in the SP (4) - had a terrible regional meet, so that probably means she will bounce back with a great national meet. I predict 2nd place for 8 points.
D'Andra Carter in the Discus (5) - has been very steady, but has not uncorked a monster throw all year. I think she does uncork that great throw this weekend - 2nd place for 8 points.
Ozie Okolie in the hammer (9) - had a dreadful conference meet, then bounced back with her best meet of the year in the regional meet. I might regret it later, but I think Ozie makes the finals and then finishes 7th for 2 points.
That adds up to 18 points, ALL of them in the throws. That finishes in the 15th to 20th range in the team race.
MEN
Gil Roberts in the 400 (2) - this kid has run lights-out all year and I don't think that changes this weekend. I predict he wins it all for 10 huge points. The only thing that might keep him from running in the low 44's in the open quarter might be all those races and what will probably be some very hot weather.
Gilbert Limo in the steeple (20) - an injury at Penn Relays kept Gilbert from running the steeple at conference, but he seemed to be back to good shape at the regional meet. I think he might make the final 12, but probably will not score in the finals.
4X400 (3) - I am very pumped about this relay. One huge question might be: will they hold Gil out of the prelims to save him from running at least one round of prelims? I think that they are deep enough to hold him out of the prelims and still make the finals, but it will be a risk. The other kids on the relay (Lamont Adams, Rodney Mims and Brandon Washington, plus alternate Tim Foster) will be very fresh - none of them are running individual events at nationals. So, I predict that Tech almost beats Baylor for 2nd, but finsihes in third behind Baylor and FLorida State for 6 points.
Darrell Roddick in the LJ and TJ (19th it the LJ and 12th in the TJ) - I think that Darrell may well make the TJ final 12, but I don't see him scoring. I think it probably hurt his TJ chances when he also qualified in the LJ, which will go first. Darrell could be the wild-card though, he is very explosive and could move into the finals in either event.
Harrison Benjamin in the SP (4th) - has improved the school record in the SP by FOUR FEET in the past 2 meets. FOUR FEET in the shot put is huge, in an event where you usually break records by 4 inches. Harrison is at the top of his game, but the three guys in front of him are far in front of him. So, I think 5th place for 4 points looks about right.
That gives the men 20 points, which puts them in the 13th to 17th range in the team race. I thought it would be 2010 before they actually made the top 20, so Gil Robert's emergence as one of the top collegiate quartermilers might have moved that timetable up a year.
The national meet is so different than any other meet on the Tech schedule, even than the conference meet. At the national meet, for all races from 800 meters and shorter, there are TWO rounds of prelims and then a final. 16 runners progress out of the opening round and then the fastest 8 in the semis move on to the finals. In the 1500, steeple and 5K, there is one round of prelims and then 12 people go to the finals. So, you can make the finals of the distance races and still 4 of the people in the final will not score a point. Imagine running 2 steeplechases or 2 5K's and not getting anything for it. In the relays, there are prelims as well and the top 8 move into the finals.
In the field events, there are also prelims. After the opening rounds of throws/jumps, the top 12 progress to the finals AND the distances/heights from the first round DO NOT carryover to the final round. You can set a world record in the prelims and then scratch all three jumps in the finals and not score a point. I think it is a stupid rule NOT to carryover the prelim performances, but no one from the NCAA ever asked me my opinion on it.
That said, the first day will tell us a great deal about the Red Raider chances, as you have prelims in following field events:
HT - Ozie Okoliie
SP - Harrison Benjamin
LJ - Darrell Roddick
SP - Patience Knight
And, prelims in the following running events:
800 - Asia Diaz
100 (first round and semis in one day) - Terra Evans
400H - Sandra Iwunze
400 - Gil Roberts
Steeple - Gilbert Limo
5K - Lillian Badaru
The scary thing about all of those prelims, is that by the time Tech runs in the 4X400 finals on Saturday afternoon (presuming they MAKE the finals), Gil Roberts could have already run the quarter 5 times in 4 days (open 400 in the opening round, the semis, and the finals and the 4X400 in both the prelims and finals.)
So, with that as a background, here are my predictions:
WOMEN (with their current rank after the name)
Terra Evans in the 100(14) - I think she makes the semis, but not the finals. No points, but a lot of experience for the top college freshman sprinter in the U.S.
Asia Diaz in the 800(18) - a superb senior year for Asia probably takes her to the semis, but not to the finals
Gladys Kipsang in the 1500 (18) - running very well right now, has improved drastically at the conference and regional meets. She might make the finals just barely (something like the 11th or 12th best time), but I just don't see her scoring at nationals.
Lillian Badaru in the 5K (25) - actually, she is only 15 seconds off out of the top 8, she has improved 30 seconds in two meets, the conference and regional meets, from earlier in the season. I think she might make the finals, but not score, finishing somewhere around 10th or 11th.
Sandra Iwunze in the 400H (17) - she is another one who I think makes the semis, but probably not the finals.
Patience Knight in the SP (4) - had a terrible regional meet, so that probably means she will bounce back with a great national meet. I predict 2nd place for 8 points.
D'Andra Carter in the Discus (5) - has been very steady, but has not uncorked a monster throw all year. I think she does uncork that great throw this weekend - 2nd place for 8 points.
Ozie Okolie in the hammer (9) - had a dreadful conference meet, then bounced back with her best meet of the year in the regional meet. I might regret it later, but I think Ozie makes the finals and then finishes 7th for 2 points.
That adds up to 18 points, ALL of them in the throws. That finishes in the 15th to 20th range in the team race.
MEN
Gil Roberts in the 400 (2) - this kid has run lights-out all year and I don't think that changes this weekend. I predict he wins it all for 10 huge points. The only thing that might keep him from running in the low 44's in the open quarter might be all those races and what will probably be some very hot weather.
Gilbert Limo in the steeple (20) - an injury at Penn Relays kept Gilbert from running the steeple at conference, but he seemed to be back to good shape at the regional meet. I think he might make the final 12, but probably will not score in the finals.
4X400 (3) - I am very pumped about this relay. One huge question might be: will they hold Gil out of the prelims to save him from running at least one round of prelims? I think that they are deep enough to hold him out of the prelims and still make the finals, but it will be a risk. The other kids on the relay (Lamont Adams, Rodney Mims and Brandon Washington, plus alternate Tim Foster) will be very fresh - none of them are running individual events at nationals. So, I predict that Tech almost beats Baylor for 2nd, but finsihes in third behind Baylor and FLorida State for 6 points.
Darrell Roddick in the LJ and TJ (19th it the LJ and 12th in the TJ) - I think that Darrell may well make the TJ final 12, but I don't see him scoring. I think it probably hurt his TJ chances when he also qualified in the LJ, which will go first. Darrell could be the wild-card though, he is very explosive and could move into the finals in either event.
Harrison Benjamin in the SP (4th) - has improved the school record in the SP by FOUR FEET in the past 2 meets. FOUR FEET in the shot put is huge, in an event where you usually break records by 4 inches. Harrison is at the top of his game, but the three guys in front of him are far in front of him. So, I think 5th place for 4 points looks about right.
That gives the men 20 points, which puts them in the 13th to 17th range in the team race. I thought it would be 2010 before they actually made the top 20, so Gil Robert's emergence as one of the top collegiate quartermilers might have moved that timetable up a year.
