4,457 tracked offshore bets
70% of bets @ 5dimes are backing OU
60% of the $ bet on the spread is backing Tech
75% of bets on the total is on the over
And I show 98% of $ bet on the total is backing the over
Pinnacle opened the line at OU -10.5 with a total of 77.5. Two years ago, OU opened at -13.5, while the total opened at 87. I was certain the 2016 line was shaded in OU's favor, primarily because we'd just been housed @ home against WVU. This is a similar spot for Tech, and I think +13.5 is shaded (S&P+ prediction agrees that it's shaded, albeit slightly, at OU 42 Tech 30).
Since 2005, I show Tech closing as a home underdog of +7.5 or more 6 times:
#5 ranked UT in 2006 aka the questionable Filani spot game. Texas closed as 10 point favorites. We started out up 21-0. Were shut out in second half but covered in a 35-31 loss.
#24 ranked Aggy in 2011 aka Aggy bus poop gate. Aggy closed as 8.5 point favorites. Final score Aggy 45-40, with us scoring in the last minute for the backdoor cover.
#2 O$U in 2011 aka let's have Corn Douglas try this defense thing out game. O$U backers sweated out -19 in a 66-6 win.
Unranked OU in 2014. We were 3-6. Pat's first real start. Despite having Cody Thomas at QB, OU was 14 point favorites. We were winning 24-21 in the 4th and ultimately covered in a 42-30 loss.
#5 OU in 2016. OU closed at -15. It is really, really difficult to cover any spread when the opposing team scores TDs on its last 6 possessions. But Pat did so in a 66-59 loss.
#14 O$U in 2017. We were 10 point underdogs. O$U scored with a minute left but could not cover in a 41-34 win.
We haven't won as a home underdog of +3.5 or more since Blaine Gabbert shat himself in 2010. And since Nick beat OU the last time in Lubbock in 09, we are 6-23 in home conference games against teams not named Kansas.
From a betting analytics perspective, I expect Vegas to have a rooting interest in a Tech cover. But we are so freakin due to win a big game at home. Even though OU's offense is outstanding, the advanced stats indicate we have the better defense.
Prediction:
OU 34
Tech 40
70% of bets @ 5dimes are backing OU
60% of the $ bet on the spread is backing Tech
75% of bets on the total is on the over
And I show 98% of $ bet on the total is backing the over
Pinnacle opened the line at OU -10.5 with a total of 77.5. Two years ago, OU opened at -13.5, while the total opened at 87. I was certain the 2016 line was shaded in OU's favor, primarily because we'd just been housed @ home against WVU. This is a similar spot for Tech, and I think +13.5 is shaded (S&P+ prediction agrees that it's shaded, albeit slightly, at OU 42 Tech 30).
Since 2005, I show Tech closing as a home underdog of +7.5 or more 6 times:
#5 ranked UT in 2006 aka the questionable Filani spot game. Texas closed as 10 point favorites. We started out up 21-0. Were shut out in second half but covered in a 35-31 loss.
#24 ranked Aggy in 2011 aka Aggy bus poop gate. Aggy closed as 8.5 point favorites. Final score Aggy 45-40, with us scoring in the last minute for the backdoor cover.
#2 O$U in 2011 aka let's have Corn Douglas try this defense thing out game. O$U backers sweated out -19 in a 66-6 win.
Unranked OU in 2014. We were 3-6. Pat's first real start. Despite having Cody Thomas at QB, OU was 14 point favorites. We were winning 24-21 in the 4th and ultimately covered in a 42-30 loss.
#5 OU in 2016. OU closed at -15. It is really, really difficult to cover any spread when the opposing team scores TDs on its last 6 possessions. But Pat did so in a 66-59 loss.
#14 O$U in 2017. We were 10 point underdogs. O$U scored with a minute left but could not cover in a 41-34 win.
We haven't won as a home underdog of +3.5 or more since Blaine Gabbert shat himself in 2010. And since Nick beat OU the last time in Lubbock in 09, we are 6-23 in home conference games against teams not named Kansas.
From a betting analytics perspective, I expect Vegas to have a rooting interest in a Tech cover. But we are so freakin due to win a big game at home. Even though OU's offense is outstanding, the advanced stats indicate we have the better defense.
Prediction:
OU 34
Tech 40
