Max Olson of -- where else? -- The Athletic nails it. Think he lives in Austin and covers most of the Texas college and in the South. I've always found him very fair and informed. He's not the drive-by national guy who grabs the low-hanging fruit and moves on.
He puts the situation in perspective, both from the past and looking to the future. There's some numbers from the past as it relates to other schools that are sad. But for the future, we got to nail this one. No swing and miss. Pretty long, but also pretty thorough.
On Sunday night, Matt Wells sounded like a head coach who believed he still had time.
He ran Texas Tech’s Sunday practice and his weekly video call with local reporters afterward like usual. The staff’s preparation for facing No. 4 Oklahoma was underway. Nothing seemed particularly amiss. He was asked on the call about how he dealt with ignoring the noise after another frustrating close loss, but even that didn’t seem particularly prescient.
“The noise is there from the very first time you lose,” Wells said, smiling and shaking his head. “That’s the business we’re in. That’s college football. We certainly understand that.”
Wells went back to work on Monday morning. He had a meeting with athletic director Kirby Hocutt at 10:30 a.m. And he found out he’d been fired. His tenure was over after 30 games and less than three full years. That’s college football.
The firing of Wells was surprising for when it happened but not for where Texas Tech is right now, both on the field and in the broader landscape of college football. Those who haven’t followed the program closely must’ve wondered why a coach of a 5-3 team was suddenly out. Why make a change one month early when he’s one win away from bowl eligibility?
There’s the basic wins-and-losses answer. Texas Tech lost 17 of its 24 games against Power 5 foes under Wells. After consecutive four-win seasons, Hocutt needed to see progress from a senior-heavy squad and didn’t see enough. It’s clear now that six or seven wins wouldn’t have saved Wells. Hocutt determined a firing was “inevitable.” So Tech leadership chose not to delay, preferring a five-week head start to the coaching search.
That’s plenty of spare time to wrestle with some of the more existential questions that come with making a fourth head coaching hire in 12 years. Such as: What does it take to get back to Mike Leach-level success? What are reasonable standards, and what is the ceiling? How do you define the “fit,” not just for the school and conference but also the community? Could making the right hire impact their future realignment options?
“I think we can do better this time,” one Texas Tech source said. “This one needs to be a successful hire.”
Wells has been described by sources around the program as simply a “bad fit.” In some ways, that feels a little unfair.
There’s a certain amount of confirmation bias that continually occurs if people who wanted Dana Holgorsen aren’t totally sold on the coach from Utah State from the start. Wells and his family represented the school well. He seemingly did things the right way. He just didn’t win enough early on to build belief.
It’s not unfair of Texas Tech supporters to feel they deserve more than 13-17. Nor would it be unfair of Wells and his staff to point to all the reasons why it went that way. For example, their starting quarterback was often injured during those 30 games. They lost Alan Bowman three games into Year 1. They had to turn to backup Henry Colombi last season when Bowman got hurt again. They’ve had to go back to Colombi this year after Tyler Shough was knocked out of their Big 12 opener. Or one could point to a pandemic making it difficult for this staff to achieve critical second-year offseason improvements in the areas Wells cared about most, both culturally (accountability, discipline) and physically (weight room gains, how they practice).
You need to be able to win close games to get by in the Big 12, and Wells’ record in those spots — 6-7 in games decided by one-score margins — was not awful but not good enough to get it turned around. Two overtime losses (Baylor in 2019, Texas in 2020) should’ve been wins, but two close wins did come against FCS teams. They lost the game you can never lose in this league, coming up short against Kansas in infamously foolish fashion in 2019. In Wells’ final game, Texas Tech held a 24-10 halftime lead at home against Kansas State, went scoreless in the second half and came up one point short. The bad ones hurt Wells’ chances more than the good wins ever helped.
“That was a game we shouldn’t have lost,” Hocutt said. “I know it, you know it, those young men know it. We shouldn’t have lost that game on Saturday. But you are what your record says you are, too.”
When you have a few too many instances of questionable in-game management — like attempting (and missing) a field goal on second down late in a loss to TCU last year — the fan base starts doubting you fast. Wells was nearly fired at the end of 2020 but managed to buy more time. Eight games later, the evaluation was over. He didn’t do enough to change the opinion of Hocutt or the base.
Wells’ plan for rebuilding Texas Tech did not pay off as quickly as hoped. Does that mean it was the wrong one? He attempted to restock and raise their talent level through the transfer market. Going into Big 12 play this season, the Red Raiders had 17 former transfers — 13 from the portal, four from junior colleges — in starting roles on the depth chart and 25 total transfers on the two-deep.
“It’s how we’re gonna try to improve Texas Tech,” Wells told The Athletic this summer. “We have to do it this way.”
There is merit to that approach these days, depending on your program. The portal provides access to better players who can start right away and bring leadership if you target the right ones. Hocutt was complimentary of those they did add, saying Wells “batted 1.000” when it came to taking high-character transfers. They had bad luck this year, too, losing their two best portal newcomers (Shough and safety Marquis Waters) to injuries. But they brought in plenty more productive players in the process.
Still, it seems some decision-makers there were not so excited about the idea of turning into Transfer Tech. Like most ideas in college football, it’s brilliant if it works. The 2021 Red Raiders were supposed to be more experienced, more competitive. When that strategy is not winning, though, you’re going to hear the criticism that you haven’t done a good enough job with in-state high school recruiting. Dealing with dead period restrictions that prevent in-person recruiting for an extremely important 15-month period in the middle of this build-up did not help at all, of course.
But again, these excuses — however valid they might be — become less bearable when your team is too inconsistent and frustrating to watch on a weekly basis. And that’s what Texas Tech was under Wells.
Wells was on the brink of bowl eligibility for the first time in his Texas Tech tenure. (Ben Queen / USA Today)
Wells was pushed out based on a belief that Texas Tech’s trajectory isn’t where it should be or needs to be. So was Kliff Kingsbury. The struggles of two coaches with few similarities to their approach does ultimately raise the big question: What kind of leader does this program actually need?
“We’re looking for a winner,” Hocutt said.
The Red Raiders have struggled to stay nationally relevant in this post-Leach era. Since 2010, Texas Tech has only spent a total of 16 weeks ranked in the AP Top 25. That’s worse than every current and future Big 12 member except Kansas.
Tech was ranked for eight weeks during Kingsbury’s debut season in 2013, climbing as high as No. 10 during a 7-0 start. But that was as good as it got for his tenure. Kingsbury finished with a winning record only once more (7-6 in 2015), even with one of the best quarterbacks in the world on his squad. Texas Tech has broken into the top 25 on two occasions since 2013. Each time, it lasted one week. Wells never managed to get there during his two-plus seasons.
This program last won 10-plus games in 2008. Texas, Texas A&M, TCU, Baylor, Houston, SMU, Rice and 89 other FBS schools have hit 10 wins at least once since then. They haven’t finished inside the AP Top 25 since 2010, but 82 other schools have. Not once in program history have they finished in the AP poll’s top 10.
When Hocutt fired Kingsbury, he made the following declaration: “We will be elite in football again. I guarantee you we will be elite in football again. This program has been there before, and we’ll get there again.”
The AD knew he was going to get asked about that line on Monday, so he brought it up himself while talking about the need to finally get over the hump and contend.
“We haven’t been there in quite some time,” Hocutt said. “We all know it. We get frustrated with it because we know what we’re capable of. And we’re not going to back away. I get people that will talk to me about, ‘You used the word elite.’ You know what? Yeah, dang right we want to be elite. And that’s not gonna change. Are we there now? No, we’re not. But that’s not gonna knock us off of that vision.”
There’s nothing wrong with that aspiration, and there are plenty of examples in Big 12 history of coaching hires that have been truly transformational. But the Red Raiders’ history of “elite” or close to it has been hard to sustain.
The lone coach who led them to a Southwest Conference title, Steve Sloan, left after three seasons. Spike Dykes was a legend who won more than seven games twice in 13 years. Mike Leach was even more successful, with top-25 finishes in five of his last six seasons, but he never won the conference. Hocutt mentioned Monday that Texas Tech has been No. 2 in the country before and can do it again. They stayed there in the 2008 BCS standings for three weeks.
This is a proud program with a devoted following that’s hungrier than ever for consistent, high-level success, existing in an ultra-competitive but still exceedingly talent-rich state. What will it take for the next hire to earn some patience and hold on to his job?
When asked what the annual expectations are going forward, Hocutt did not mince his words.
“Should this football team go to bowl games every year? Absolutely,” he said. “Should we be in the top 25 in the country? Absolutely. That’s where we belong. We haven’t been there and we’re gonna get back there. That’s exactly the expectations for this program. And to be relevant, to compete in November. And that’s not going to change.”
Texas Tech needs to ace this coaching hire for so many reasons. Here’s a more big-picture one to consider.
During the seven weeks of Big 12 realignment drama this summer, Texas Tech’s determined efforts to explore its options were not a particularly well-kept secret. Several sources told The Athletic there was significant interest among Texas Tech leadership in joining the Pac-12 if possible.
The Pac-12 preferred to put together its three-conference Alliance and announced on Aug. 26 it was passing on expansion. Texas Tech president Lawrence Schovanec is the Big 12’s board chair, and Hocutt was on its expansion subgroup. Publicly, they said all the right things about their loyalty to the Big 12 and their interest in maintaining and strengthening the league. But the Pac-12 deciding to stay at 12 was a disappointing development, and one that ultimately helped expedite the Big 12’s decision to add four new members.
Could the Pac-12’s decision be revisited in the future when it’s time for the league to start negotiating its next TV deal? Never say never with these matters. This is probably relevant context to consider as Texas Tech’s search starts. Hocutt did acknowledge realignment on Monday and noted football will continue to be the driver in future shifts.
“There’s nothing more important than making sure you have a strong, healthy football program,” he said.
That’s true in the obvious way that finding a coach who can win big and elevate the national stature and perception of Texas Tech is a must. But perhaps it should also factor in who they can’t hire.
“If you want to be a pariah for any conference realignment, hire Art Briles,” one Big 12 source said.
If Texas Tech couldn’t win over enough Pac-12 presidents and ADs in August, hiring Briles would only further damage its chances of someday being taken seriously as a potential new member. Its search committee should keep that in mind while considering all the risks of making a win-at-all-costs hire.
But here’s the good news about this ongoing realignment moment: It might give Texas Tech a better shot at hiring Sonny Dykes.
He has an undefeated No. 19 SMU squad that should play for the AAC title this year. SMU is well-positioned to keep winning and chase College Football Playoff bids in a 12-team system. But the Mustangs are also living in a league that is about to become arguably weaker than the Mountain West. How much excitement will there really be about the new-look AAC when they’re playing North Texas, UTSA and Rice on an annual basis? How much tougher might recruiting become in a diminished conference?
Dykes knows he has a great job and quality of life on The Hilltop. He also knows everything about the Texas Tech job, good and bad. He knows what to do to thrive in this job, and he also knows all the reasons why he shouldn’t take it. But if SMU has little hope of someday joining the Big 12 – Bob Bowlsby has been consistent on that topic – then you have to wonder: How much should that matter to Dykes?
There’s no better option for the Red Raiders if the No. 1 aim is fit. And if Dykes doesn’t want to come home, they wouldn’t be settling whatsoever if UTSA’s Jeff Traylor is the choice. By launching this search a month early, maybe it’ll twist and turn in unexpected directions. But it’s easy to see why those two candidates stand out at the start.
Keep this in mind when it comes to good and bad fits: Texas Tech folks haven’t forgotten Tommy Tuberville. They won’t hire someone who has no love for living there and who’d sneak out of a restaurant for the first job offer they get. Hocutt made it clear their next coach will have deep Texas ties. They need someone who really wants to be in West Texas, someone who gets Lubbock.
And that coach, whoever they are, needs to believe in the potential of Red Raider football. Then they need to find a way to reach it. Because this hire needs to work.
“We’ve got to get this right,” Hocutt said. “Bottom line, we have got to get this right.”
He puts the situation in perspective, both from the past and looking to the future. There's some numbers from the past as it relates to other schools that are sad. But for the future, we got to nail this one. No swing and miss. Pretty long, but also pretty thorough.
On Sunday night, Matt Wells sounded like a head coach who believed he still had time.
He ran Texas Tech’s Sunday practice and his weekly video call with local reporters afterward like usual. The staff’s preparation for facing No. 4 Oklahoma was underway. Nothing seemed particularly amiss. He was asked on the call about how he dealt with ignoring the noise after another frustrating close loss, but even that didn’t seem particularly prescient.
“The noise is there from the very first time you lose,” Wells said, smiling and shaking his head. “That’s the business we’re in. That’s college football. We certainly understand that.”
Wells went back to work on Monday morning. He had a meeting with athletic director Kirby Hocutt at 10:30 a.m. And he found out he’d been fired. His tenure was over after 30 games and less than three full years. That’s college football.
The firing of Wells was surprising for when it happened but not for where Texas Tech is right now, both on the field and in the broader landscape of college football. Those who haven’t followed the program closely must’ve wondered why a coach of a 5-3 team was suddenly out. Why make a change one month early when he’s one win away from bowl eligibility?
There’s the basic wins-and-losses answer. Texas Tech lost 17 of its 24 games against Power 5 foes under Wells. After consecutive four-win seasons, Hocutt needed to see progress from a senior-heavy squad and didn’t see enough. It’s clear now that six or seven wins wouldn’t have saved Wells. Hocutt determined a firing was “inevitable.” So Tech leadership chose not to delay, preferring a five-week head start to the coaching search.
That’s plenty of spare time to wrestle with some of the more existential questions that come with making a fourth head coaching hire in 12 years. Such as: What does it take to get back to Mike Leach-level success? What are reasonable standards, and what is the ceiling? How do you define the “fit,” not just for the school and conference but also the community? Could making the right hire impact their future realignment options?
“I think we can do better this time,” one Texas Tech source said. “This one needs to be a successful hire.”
Wells has been described by sources around the program as simply a “bad fit.” In some ways, that feels a little unfair.
There’s a certain amount of confirmation bias that continually occurs if people who wanted Dana Holgorsen aren’t totally sold on the coach from Utah State from the start. Wells and his family represented the school well. He seemingly did things the right way. He just didn’t win enough early on to build belief.
It’s not unfair of Texas Tech supporters to feel they deserve more than 13-17. Nor would it be unfair of Wells and his staff to point to all the reasons why it went that way. For example, their starting quarterback was often injured during those 30 games. They lost Alan Bowman three games into Year 1. They had to turn to backup Henry Colombi last season when Bowman got hurt again. They’ve had to go back to Colombi this year after Tyler Shough was knocked out of their Big 12 opener. Or one could point to a pandemic making it difficult for this staff to achieve critical second-year offseason improvements in the areas Wells cared about most, both culturally (accountability, discipline) and physically (weight room gains, how they practice).
You need to be able to win close games to get by in the Big 12, and Wells’ record in those spots — 6-7 in games decided by one-score margins — was not awful but not good enough to get it turned around. Two overtime losses (Baylor in 2019, Texas in 2020) should’ve been wins, but two close wins did come against FCS teams. They lost the game you can never lose in this league, coming up short against Kansas in infamously foolish fashion in 2019. In Wells’ final game, Texas Tech held a 24-10 halftime lead at home against Kansas State, went scoreless in the second half and came up one point short. The bad ones hurt Wells’ chances more than the good wins ever helped.
“That was a game we shouldn’t have lost,” Hocutt said. “I know it, you know it, those young men know it. We shouldn’t have lost that game on Saturday. But you are what your record says you are, too.”
When you have a few too many instances of questionable in-game management — like attempting (and missing) a field goal on second down late in a loss to TCU last year — the fan base starts doubting you fast. Wells was nearly fired at the end of 2020 but managed to buy more time. Eight games later, the evaluation was over. He didn’t do enough to change the opinion of Hocutt or the base.
Wells’ plan for rebuilding Texas Tech did not pay off as quickly as hoped. Does that mean it was the wrong one? He attempted to restock and raise their talent level through the transfer market. Going into Big 12 play this season, the Red Raiders had 17 former transfers — 13 from the portal, four from junior colleges — in starting roles on the depth chart and 25 total transfers on the two-deep.
“It’s how we’re gonna try to improve Texas Tech,” Wells told The Athletic this summer. “We have to do it this way.”
There is merit to that approach these days, depending on your program. The portal provides access to better players who can start right away and bring leadership if you target the right ones. Hocutt was complimentary of those they did add, saying Wells “batted 1.000” when it came to taking high-character transfers. They had bad luck this year, too, losing their two best portal newcomers (Shough and safety Marquis Waters) to injuries. But they brought in plenty more productive players in the process.
Still, it seems some decision-makers there were not so excited about the idea of turning into Transfer Tech. Like most ideas in college football, it’s brilliant if it works. The 2021 Red Raiders were supposed to be more experienced, more competitive. When that strategy is not winning, though, you’re going to hear the criticism that you haven’t done a good enough job with in-state high school recruiting. Dealing with dead period restrictions that prevent in-person recruiting for an extremely important 15-month period in the middle of this build-up did not help at all, of course.
But again, these excuses — however valid they might be — become less bearable when your team is too inconsistent and frustrating to watch on a weekly basis. And that’s what Texas Tech was under Wells.
Wells was on the brink of bowl eligibility for the first time in his Texas Tech tenure. (Ben Queen / USA Today)
Wells was pushed out based on a belief that Texas Tech’s trajectory isn’t where it should be or needs to be. So was Kliff Kingsbury. The struggles of two coaches with few similarities to their approach does ultimately raise the big question: What kind of leader does this program actually need?
“We’re looking for a winner,” Hocutt said.
The Red Raiders have struggled to stay nationally relevant in this post-Leach era. Since 2010, Texas Tech has only spent a total of 16 weeks ranked in the AP Top 25. That’s worse than every current and future Big 12 member except Kansas.
Tech was ranked for eight weeks during Kingsbury’s debut season in 2013, climbing as high as No. 10 during a 7-0 start. But that was as good as it got for his tenure. Kingsbury finished with a winning record only once more (7-6 in 2015), even with one of the best quarterbacks in the world on his squad. Texas Tech has broken into the top 25 on two occasions since 2013. Each time, it lasted one week. Wells never managed to get there during his two-plus seasons.
This program last won 10-plus games in 2008. Texas, Texas A&M, TCU, Baylor, Houston, SMU, Rice and 89 other FBS schools have hit 10 wins at least once since then. They haven’t finished inside the AP Top 25 since 2010, but 82 other schools have. Not once in program history have they finished in the AP poll’s top 10.
When Hocutt fired Kingsbury, he made the following declaration: “We will be elite in football again. I guarantee you we will be elite in football again. This program has been there before, and we’ll get there again.”
The AD knew he was going to get asked about that line on Monday, so he brought it up himself while talking about the need to finally get over the hump and contend.
“We haven’t been there in quite some time,” Hocutt said. “We all know it. We get frustrated with it because we know what we’re capable of. And we’re not going to back away. I get people that will talk to me about, ‘You used the word elite.’ You know what? Yeah, dang right we want to be elite. And that’s not gonna change. Are we there now? No, we’re not. But that’s not gonna knock us off of that vision.”
There’s nothing wrong with that aspiration, and there are plenty of examples in Big 12 history of coaching hires that have been truly transformational. But the Red Raiders’ history of “elite” or close to it has been hard to sustain.
The lone coach who led them to a Southwest Conference title, Steve Sloan, left after three seasons. Spike Dykes was a legend who won more than seven games twice in 13 years. Mike Leach was even more successful, with top-25 finishes in five of his last six seasons, but he never won the conference. Hocutt mentioned Monday that Texas Tech has been No. 2 in the country before and can do it again. They stayed there in the 2008 BCS standings for three weeks.
This is a proud program with a devoted following that’s hungrier than ever for consistent, high-level success, existing in an ultra-competitive but still exceedingly talent-rich state. What will it take for the next hire to earn some patience and hold on to his job?
When asked what the annual expectations are going forward, Hocutt did not mince his words.
“Should this football team go to bowl games every year? Absolutely,” he said. “Should we be in the top 25 in the country? Absolutely. That’s where we belong. We haven’t been there and we’re gonna get back there. That’s exactly the expectations for this program. And to be relevant, to compete in November. And that’s not going to change.”
Texas Tech needs to ace this coaching hire for so many reasons. Here’s a more big-picture one to consider.
During the seven weeks of Big 12 realignment drama this summer, Texas Tech’s determined efforts to explore its options were not a particularly well-kept secret. Several sources told The Athletic there was significant interest among Texas Tech leadership in joining the Pac-12 if possible.
The Pac-12 preferred to put together its three-conference Alliance and announced on Aug. 26 it was passing on expansion. Texas Tech president Lawrence Schovanec is the Big 12’s board chair, and Hocutt was on its expansion subgroup. Publicly, they said all the right things about their loyalty to the Big 12 and their interest in maintaining and strengthening the league. But the Pac-12 deciding to stay at 12 was a disappointing development, and one that ultimately helped expedite the Big 12’s decision to add four new members.
Could the Pac-12’s decision be revisited in the future when it’s time for the league to start negotiating its next TV deal? Never say never with these matters. This is probably relevant context to consider as Texas Tech’s search starts. Hocutt did acknowledge realignment on Monday and noted football will continue to be the driver in future shifts.
“There’s nothing more important than making sure you have a strong, healthy football program,” he said.
That’s true in the obvious way that finding a coach who can win big and elevate the national stature and perception of Texas Tech is a must. But perhaps it should also factor in who they can’t hire.
“If you want to be a pariah for any conference realignment, hire Art Briles,” one Big 12 source said.
If Texas Tech couldn’t win over enough Pac-12 presidents and ADs in August, hiring Briles would only further damage its chances of someday being taken seriously as a potential new member. Its search committee should keep that in mind while considering all the risks of making a win-at-all-costs hire.
But here’s the good news about this ongoing realignment moment: It might give Texas Tech a better shot at hiring Sonny Dykes.
He has an undefeated No. 19 SMU squad that should play for the AAC title this year. SMU is well-positioned to keep winning and chase College Football Playoff bids in a 12-team system. But the Mustangs are also living in a league that is about to become arguably weaker than the Mountain West. How much excitement will there really be about the new-look AAC when they’re playing North Texas, UTSA and Rice on an annual basis? How much tougher might recruiting become in a diminished conference?
Dykes knows he has a great job and quality of life on The Hilltop. He also knows everything about the Texas Tech job, good and bad. He knows what to do to thrive in this job, and he also knows all the reasons why he shouldn’t take it. But if SMU has little hope of someday joining the Big 12 – Bob Bowlsby has been consistent on that topic – then you have to wonder: How much should that matter to Dykes?
There’s no better option for the Red Raiders if the No. 1 aim is fit. And if Dykes doesn’t want to come home, they wouldn’t be settling whatsoever if UTSA’s Jeff Traylor is the choice. By launching this search a month early, maybe it’ll twist and turn in unexpected directions. But it’s easy to see why those two candidates stand out at the start.
Keep this in mind when it comes to good and bad fits: Texas Tech folks haven’t forgotten Tommy Tuberville. They won’t hire someone who has no love for living there and who’d sneak out of a restaurant for the first job offer they get. Hocutt made it clear their next coach will have deep Texas ties. They need someone who really wants to be in West Texas, someone who gets Lubbock.
And that coach, whoever they are, needs to believe in the potential of Red Raider football. Then they need to find a way to reach it. Because this hire needs to work.
“We’ve got to get this right,” Hocutt said. “Bottom line, we have got to get this right.”
