I'd be lying if I told you that I didn't expect to kind of have a week off with these reviews this week. I figured the offense would maul SFA in the run game, and overwhelm them with offensive skill, while the defense completely stifled anything the Lumberjack attack had to offer. It was somewhere mid first quarter when I realized that my assumptions would not become reality. It was clear from my seat in section 108 that the #PacktheJones campaign was more carefully planned and orchestrated than the actual game plan on the field. Or... at least I hope that's the case because if not, we are in for another long year.
I predicted a blowout, and that was stupid, I'll be the first to admit it. Matt Wells' tenure at Texas Tech has been full of games that are closer than they should be, whether playing up to the competition or down. The inability to kill a game is infuriating, and it's a trait of teams that are either mediocre or teams that are going to be good, but need to learn that killer instinct. I tend to lean the former in this case, but mediocre would be a welcomed sight after what we've seen around here.
So what was the problem Saturday? For one, respect to SFA, they had a terrific game plan. I think that they expected Cumbie to come out with a vanilla game plan, to not show too much before conference play, and they were right. Not only were they right, but what they came up with to stop it was designed and executed to near perfection. They loaded the box, made all of their coverages look the same, and sent a ton of pressure that tried to, and succeeded in, exposing the offensive line. In terms of the offensive line and their overall play, two things can be true, they did not play well AND they were not given a chance to succeed. Look at the screen shots below, SFA has Tech outnumbered in the box, which means that something in the passing game is open. MADDENINGLY OPEN! This game is totally different if Tech takes what SFA is giving them, throw those screens and force SFA to cover them, then gash them in the run game.
I can forgive the vanilla game plan and I can forgive coming out flat. I cannot forgive refusing to take advantage of this numbers mismatch with a play that everyone of these guys have been running since 7th grade. If Tech takes what SFA is giving them on each of these plays, I would bet money that at least half end up in touchdowns. This absolutely has to be seen by the offensive staff and corrected either in game or at halftime.
I mentioned in a thread that Shough looked like one of the Monstars zapped all of his skill between the Houston game and SFA. It looked like two completely different quarterbacks played in the first two games, and, as I think back to my initial scouting of Shough at Oregon, his inconsistency is why the Ducks eventually went in another direction. So, I'm not sounding the alarm just yet, because I have faith that time in the offense and time studying under Cumbie will help with consistency, but I am starting to look around at where the alarm is located. We'll see it on the film, but Shough has got to put some trust in other receivers, the group is talented, but needs reps. I don't blame him for looking Eazy's way more than anyone else, but, like a good point guard, it's important that a quarterback tries to get everyone involved.
Below are Shough's numbers under pressure, even if these grades change later, there is still bound to be a stark difference in his performance when kept clean/not-blitzed and under pressure/blitzed. There is some nuance here because, obviously, most quarterbacks are going to perform better when kept clean and not under pressure, while those same quarterbacks might struggle under pressure. However, you can't blitz GOOD quarterbacks they will kill you almost every time. Blitzing leaves something open, it's a gamble by the defense, they are hoping they can get to the QB before he figures out what's exposed. Shough was good at this during his time in Oregon, he was good at it last week against Houston, but he struggled mightily against SFA's blitzes. Similar to the offensive line, Shough played poorly, but he was not helped with these slow developing route concepts and running into an outnumbered box.
Apologies for the number of clips here, but this is even cut down from what I had.
The first four plays are running plays, and they are all zone schemes. The offensive line is stepping one way and either, blocking that man, or comboing and trying to get to the second level. The first three of these plays are touchdowns, and they are touchdowns because the offensive line was not outnumbered. On the rare occasions that SFA had sufficient numbers over the receivers, Tech took advantage. That's WHY the Lumberjacks did what they did, they could not play Tech straight up and win. You can see that in the last clip, SFA had some defensive confusion, added an extra unblocked man late, and he made the play. This offensive line is below average, but they can be average when put in advantageous situations.
The first passing play is one of the few passing game bright spots. SFA sends the house... and then sends a delayed man. The offensive line does a pretty good job, Shough hangs in there, and finds Eazy for a big first down. My problem here is, what are we doing with the rest of those routes? None are open, all are way downfield, and this is after we've seen SFA consistently bring a ton of pressure. Also, Eazy is so fun.
On the next play, pause the video at 44 seconds, there are three receivers that are open and would get the first down. Shough either doesn't see them or doesn't throw them... both are bad because he checks it down for a small gain... and this is one of the few plays where Shough had time.
The next play is the pick six. I don't know if Shough and Eazy are not on the same page or Shough is trying to get it to the slot receiver. To me, if this to Ezukanma, then that's probably a big play. He's singe covered, take a shot. If it's to the slot, woof. Again, look at the left side of the field, you got two guys open with a good chance to get a first down.
The next play is the big fumble. First off, there is not a word in the English language strong enough to describe my hatred for going empty on 4th and 3 against SFA. Especially since, at this point in the game, the ground game had shown some life. If you are going to do this, it has to be a quick hitter. Either deep, basically a punt, or a quick slant. If you pause the video at 1:02, there are two receivers open at the sticks. Shough hesitates, tries to go deep, and gifts SFA more points.
On this next play, SFA shows blitz, but only ends up rushing four. The offensive line does a pretty good job, but for some reason (the defense has been in his lap for two games) Shough leaves the pocket early and limits his options. Still does a pretty good job improvising and finds an open Eazy, however, one of our best players makes a critical mistake and drops the ball.
First off, this ball needs to be thrown to White IMMEDIATELY. IT'S TWO ON ONE! Anyway, it's not, SFA sends five, gets home, and forces Shough to make a play with his legs. One thing I want you to notice, if you pause the video at 1:27, look at the middle of the field. It's wide open. One of my biggest complaints all game was that this portion of the field was treated like lava when SFA's coverages were begging you to use it.
Man. That was just as frustrating on the rewatch as it was in person. There is no one involved in this offense that is free from blame. If you wanted to stay vanilla, I get it, but when that was obviously not working, it is concerning that there seemed to be no adjustments made. There are reason's for concern that will only be resolved with more games, but I remain optimistic because of what we saw against Houston. Against Houston we saw a wide variety of formations, tons of motion, TE usage, play action used, and several other elements that successful offenses use. We saw none of that against SFA. I completely get the frustration, and you can call me an apologist or sunshine pumper all you want, but we've got a lot of games left and I expect the offense to get better.
I predicted a blowout, and that was stupid, I'll be the first to admit it. Matt Wells' tenure at Texas Tech has been full of games that are closer than they should be, whether playing up to the competition or down. The inability to kill a game is infuriating, and it's a trait of teams that are either mediocre or teams that are going to be good, but need to learn that killer instinct. I tend to lean the former in this case, but mediocre would be a welcomed sight after what we've seen around here.
So what was the problem Saturday? For one, respect to SFA, they had a terrific game plan. I think that they expected Cumbie to come out with a vanilla game plan, to not show too much before conference play, and they were right. Not only were they right, but what they came up with to stop it was designed and executed to near perfection. They loaded the box, made all of their coverages look the same, and sent a ton of pressure that tried to, and succeeded in, exposing the offensive line. In terms of the offensive line and their overall play, two things can be true, they did not play well AND they were not given a chance to succeed. Look at the screen shots below, SFA has Tech outnumbered in the box, which means that something in the passing game is open. MADDENINGLY OPEN! This game is totally different if Tech takes what SFA is giving them, throw those screens and force SFA to cover them, then gash them in the run game.
I can forgive the vanilla game plan and I can forgive coming out flat. I cannot forgive refusing to take advantage of this numbers mismatch with a play that everyone of these guys have been running since 7th grade. If Tech takes what SFA is giving them on each of these plays, I would bet money that at least half end up in touchdowns. This absolutely has to be seen by the offensive staff and corrected either in game or at halftime.
I mentioned in a thread that Shough looked like one of the Monstars zapped all of his skill between the Houston game and SFA. It looked like two completely different quarterbacks played in the first two games, and, as I think back to my initial scouting of Shough at Oregon, his inconsistency is why the Ducks eventually went in another direction. So, I'm not sounding the alarm just yet, because I have faith that time in the offense and time studying under Cumbie will help with consistency, but I am starting to look around at where the alarm is located. We'll see it on the film, but Shough has got to put some trust in other receivers, the group is talented, but needs reps. I don't blame him for looking Eazy's way more than anyone else, but, like a good point guard, it's important that a quarterback tries to get everyone involved.
Below are Shough's numbers under pressure, even if these grades change later, there is still bound to be a stark difference in his performance when kept clean/not-blitzed and under pressure/blitzed. There is some nuance here because, obviously, most quarterbacks are going to perform better when kept clean and not under pressure, while those same quarterbacks might struggle under pressure. However, you can't blitz GOOD quarterbacks they will kill you almost every time. Blitzing leaves something open, it's a gamble by the defense, they are hoping they can get to the QB before he figures out what's exposed. Shough was good at this during his time in Oregon, he was good at it last week against Houston, but he struggled mightily against SFA's blitzes. Similar to the offensive line, Shough played poorly, but he was not helped with these slow developing route concepts and running into an outnumbered box.
Apologies for the number of clips here, but this is even cut down from what I had.
The first four plays are running plays, and they are all zone schemes. The offensive line is stepping one way and either, blocking that man, or comboing and trying to get to the second level. The first three of these plays are touchdowns, and they are touchdowns because the offensive line was not outnumbered. On the rare occasions that SFA had sufficient numbers over the receivers, Tech took advantage. That's WHY the Lumberjacks did what they did, they could not play Tech straight up and win. You can see that in the last clip, SFA had some defensive confusion, added an extra unblocked man late, and he made the play. This offensive line is below average, but they can be average when put in advantageous situations.
The first passing play is one of the few passing game bright spots. SFA sends the house... and then sends a delayed man. The offensive line does a pretty good job, Shough hangs in there, and finds Eazy for a big first down. My problem here is, what are we doing with the rest of those routes? None are open, all are way downfield, and this is after we've seen SFA consistently bring a ton of pressure. Also, Eazy is so fun.
On the next play, pause the video at 44 seconds, there are three receivers that are open and would get the first down. Shough either doesn't see them or doesn't throw them... both are bad because he checks it down for a small gain... and this is one of the few plays where Shough had time.
The next play is the pick six. I don't know if Shough and Eazy are not on the same page or Shough is trying to get it to the slot receiver. To me, if this to Ezukanma, then that's probably a big play. He's singe covered, take a shot. If it's to the slot, woof. Again, look at the left side of the field, you got two guys open with a good chance to get a first down.
The next play is the big fumble. First off, there is not a word in the English language strong enough to describe my hatred for going empty on 4th and 3 against SFA. Especially since, at this point in the game, the ground game had shown some life. If you are going to do this, it has to be a quick hitter. Either deep, basically a punt, or a quick slant. If you pause the video at 1:02, there are two receivers open at the sticks. Shough hesitates, tries to go deep, and gifts SFA more points.
On this next play, SFA shows blitz, but only ends up rushing four. The offensive line does a pretty good job, but for some reason (the defense has been in his lap for two games) Shough leaves the pocket early and limits his options. Still does a pretty good job improvising and finds an open Eazy, however, one of our best players makes a critical mistake and drops the ball.
First off, this ball needs to be thrown to White IMMEDIATELY. IT'S TWO ON ONE! Anyway, it's not, SFA sends five, gets home, and forces Shough to make a play with his legs. One thing I want you to notice, if you pause the video at 1:27, look at the middle of the field. It's wide open. One of my biggest complaints all game was that this portion of the field was treated like lava when SFA's coverages were begging you to use it.
Man. That was just as frustrating on the rewatch as it was in person. There is no one involved in this offense that is free from blame. If you wanted to stay vanilla, I get it, but when that was obviously not working, it is concerning that there seemed to be no adjustments made. There are reason's for concern that will only be resolved with more games, but I remain optimistic because of what we saw against Houston. Against Houston we saw a wide variety of formations, tons of motion, TE usage, play action used, and several other elements that successful offenses use. We saw none of that against SFA. I completely get the frustration, and you can call me an apologist or sunshine pumper all you want, but we've got a lot of games left and I expect the offense to get better.
