6:34 PM on Saturday I sent the following text to @W. McKay, "we are definitely cursed." Despite @jkolb's proclamation that the curse is broken, I could think of no other reason for the disastrous, which doesn't even feel like a strong enough word, start. Texas Tech is better than Houston, I knew that to be true, that's why I was so confident that Tech would win, but, at 6:34 on Saturday when an absolute perfect onside kick was execute (just like the one against UT last season), I was beginning to wonder if I had failed to consider that facts don't actually matter when it comes to Texas Tech football.
Things got better. If the curse wasn't broken before the game, it is now. I cannot imagine a Tech team is recent memory being able to turn that loss into a win. Alright, I just had to get that out of the way, now let's look at the offense.
Of all the impressive things that came from Saturday's win, what may top my list is the offense's ability to stay composed after not being able to take the field for so long. I was convinced that they would come out flat with a couple of three-and-outs and take a while to get back into the groove of the game. I was wrong, and that's credit to this team, there was no "here we go again" with those guys. After the weirdest start to a game that I can remember, the offense took the field and swiftly marched down the field on a drive that should have ended in a touchdown. From then on, there was no particularly flashy (other than Eazy and Tahj's performances) elements to the offense, but they did almost exactly what needed to be done. They did not beat themselves, and they put away an inferior opponent.
I saw some saying that they could not see a difference between last year's offense and this one, and/or Cumbie impact had been overstated. I could not disagree more. Sure, some things may have looked similar. The offense still ran screens, there was still a TE on the field most of the time, tempo was used, and I'm sure there are several more. The biggest difference was how those similar elements were used, how they were designed, how they were used to get our best players the ball, and, in the case of the TE, just used in general, instead of taking up space.
If you don't believe me, look at the numbers. These are from, like they will be all season, Collegefootballdata.com. First, look at their EPA model, they call it PPA.
Another element of the Texas Tech offense I wanted to see Cumbie rejuvenate is the explosiveness.
Let's get to the film... bad first.
To me, the mark of a good offensive line is if you can successfully run the ball when the defense knows you are going to run and can you protect when the defense knows you are going to throw the ball. I wouldn't say that the Tech offensive line showed either, with consistency, against Houston. It is fair to blame individual errors, as well as a lack of cohesion. The first play, a third and long where the defense knows Tech is throwing the ball, has both, Rogers is straight beat off the edge (individual error), and (unfortunately for Shough), Storment and Wright do not handle a twist stunt. The next play, another third and long, again has both errors. Wright completely whiffs trying to block his man, but he gets no help from Deaton, when he could've helped, because of another twist that is not handled well by Burger and Rogers. Storment is fine here, it's not ideal, but fine. I saw a few people mentioning that Shough's ability to move in the pocked was over hyped, my argument is, where is he supposed to run? That's the problem with the majority of these pressures, it's from all sides, he can't use his legs because there are too many missed blocks. I added this last play because the offensive line is not always at fault for pressure, the protection is pretty good here, but Shough holds onto the ball too long. I get his hesitancy because if he throws to Geiger when he is first open, I'm not sure he gets the first, but it's got more of a chance than what eventually happens. The offensive line has to be better, luckily they have two weeks to figure it out.
I love this first play. Like I said earlier, yeah it's a bubble screen, which has drawn the ire of our fanbase, but does it look like any bubble screens we've run in the recent past? We lined our best receiver up in the slot, sent him in an orbit motion, got him in space, and had some great downfield blocking (especially Geiger). On a side not, I get what Eazy is doing on the goal line, but if he just hits the brakes around the 5, he probably scores easily.... which was not a big deal until the next play.
Again, "ANOTHER DAMN SCREEN PLAY!" Except, we have more motion and Eazy in the slot again... creativity! Also, just a grown man play from Eazy because it's not blocked particularly well. He is so good.
I just put this in here because I wanted to watch it again. It's a perfect throw from Shough and a really good catch and adjustment from Eazy. That combo is going to be lethal.
More of the same here, just add good pass protection. Don't underestimate this throw, the placement is great, it's in a spot where only Eazy could get it. If the Houston DB was going to intercept it, it would be pass interference. Speaking of, this is a good no call, plenty of hand fighting both ways.
Biggest play of the game right here, absolutely had to get 6. This is a really smart play call, especially against a blitz. Tech overloads the right side with routes, and creates a natural pick on the LB to free up White. This is not good from Burger and Deaton, which makes this a much more difficult play than it needs to be, but Shough creates just enough time to deliver a good ball. Some redemption for White as well.
Last three plays are all plays to Koontz, who had a great game, both blocking and receiving. I was convinced he had the talent, but we only saw glimpses due to a complete lack of use last season. Cumbie changed that, TE is no longer just an extra lineman. This is going to be a theme of Cumbie's offense, but this first play is basically free yards, which is great to see after a season where everything seemed so difficult on offense. Freeze the LB with play action, dump it to your talented TE, let him do the rest.
If the White TD was the biggest play of the game, this was the second biggest, this is the third down before that touchdown... also on third down. We are in 12 personnel, 1 RB and 2 TEs. We've got motion, which helps Shough and the receivers identify the coverage, then it's just mesh with Teeter and Koontz. This is really really well done by Koontz, he doesn't run into being covered, but finds the opening AND catches the ball and looks for the first down. Big time play. Unfortunately, the protection is bad, but it, again, shows the skill of Shough to complete this pass under duress.
This next play is actually the next play after the big Eazy screen. I am not a fan of tempo for tempo's sake, one spot I do like to use tempo is after a big play, like Cumbie does here. I also hate running a simple zone read play after every big play, most of the time that's just a waste of a down. This is a great use of it because I can promise you that Houston thought this was going to be a "look at me" situation where they switched the formation and called a play. Instead, they ran a simple all hitch play, Shough picked out the matchup he liked, and now Tech has an easy 2nd and 1.
It's fair to ask questions about the offensive line going forward because if this team wants to reach its potential then the offensive line HAS to play better or Shough will not make it through the season. It's also fair to question the receivers not named Price, Geiger, and Ezukanma, but I would make an exception for this game simply due to its weirdness. I'm sure Cumbie's target numbers got thrown off by the lack of plays ran and not touching the ball basically the entire first quarter. With all that being said, I'm encouraged by what I saw and I would suspect it will only get better if Shough can stay healthy. He was not flashy, but he was so good Saturday. He will give you a chance in every game Tech plays.
Things got better. If the curse wasn't broken before the game, it is now. I cannot imagine a Tech team is recent memory being able to turn that loss into a win. Alright, I just had to get that out of the way, now let's look at the offense.
Of all the impressive things that came from Saturday's win, what may top my list is the offense's ability to stay composed after not being able to take the field for so long. I was convinced that they would come out flat with a couple of three-and-outs and take a while to get back into the groove of the game. I was wrong, and that's credit to this team, there was no "here we go again" with those guys. After the weirdest start to a game that I can remember, the offense took the field and swiftly marched down the field on a drive that should have ended in a touchdown. From then on, there was no particularly flashy (other than Eazy and Tahj's performances) elements to the offense, but they did almost exactly what needed to be done. They did not beat themselves, and they put away an inferior opponent.
I saw some saying that they could not see a difference between last year's offense and this one, and/or Cumbie impact had been overstated. I could not disagree more. Sure, some things may have looked similar. The offense still ran screens, there was still a TE on the field most of the time, tempo was used, and I'm sure there are several more. The biggest difference was how those similar elements were used, how they were designed, how they were used to get our best players the ball, and, in the case of the TE, just used in general, instead of taking up space.
If you don't believe me, look at the numbers. These are from, like they will be all season, Collegefootballdata.com. First, look at their EPA model, they call it PPA.
- Expected Points Added (EPA) uses Expected Points to measure the outcome of a play. It takes the EP value from the beginning of a play (e.g. 2nd and 5 at the 50) and subtracts it from the EP value resulting from the play (e.g. rush for 10 yards results in 1st and 10 from the 40).
- Expected Points (EP) assumes that not all yard lines are created equal. In other words, each yardline is assigned a point value and measures the number of points that would be expected to be scored based on down, distance, and field position. A negative value means that the opposing team would be expected to score the next points in the game.
Another element of the Texas Tech offense I wanted to see Cumbie rejuvenate is the explosiveness.
- Explosiveness measures the average EPA on plays which were marked as successful. It uses this site's EPA implementation (known as PPA).
Let's get to the film... bad first.
To me, the mark of a good offensive line is if you can successfully run the ball when the defense knows you are going to run and can you protect when the defense knows you are going to throw the ball. I wouldn't say that the Tech offensive line showed either, with consistency, against Houston. It is fair to blame individual errors, as well as a lack of cohesion. The first play, a third and long where the defense knows Tech is throwing the ball, has both, Rogers is straight beat off the edge (individual error), and (unfortunately for Shough), Storment and Wright do not handle a twist stunt. The next play, another third and long, again has both errors. Wright completely whiffs trying to block his man, but he gets no help from Deaton, when he could've helped, because of another twist that is not handled well by Burger and Rogers. Storment is fine here, it's not ideal, but fine. I saw a few people mentioning that Shough's ability to move in the pocked was over hyped, my argument is, where is he supposed to run? That's the problem with the majority of these pressures, it's from all sides, he can't use his legs because there are too many missed blocks. I added this last play because the offensive line is not always at fault for pressure, the protection is pretty good here, but Shough holds onto the ball too long. I get his hesitancy because if he throws to Geiger when he is first open, I'm not sure he gets the first, but it's got more of a chance than what eventually happens. The offensive line has to be better, luckily they have two weeks to figure it out.
I love this first play. Like I said earlier, yeah it's a bubble screen, which has drawn the ire of our fanbase, but does it look like any bubble screens we've run in the recent past? We lined our best receiver up in the slot, sent him in an orbit motion, got him in space, and had some great downfield blocking (especially Geiger). On a side not, I get what Eazy is doing on the goal line, but if he just hits the brakes around the 5, he probably scores easily.... which was not a big deal until the next play.
Again, "ANOTHER DAMN SCREEN PLAY!" Except, we have more motion and Eazy in the slot again... creativity! Also, just a grown man play from Eazy because it's not blocked particularly well. He is so good.
I just put this in here because I wanted to watch it again. It's a perfect throw from Shough and a really good catch and adjustment from Eazy. That combo is going to be lethal.
More of the same here, just add good pass protection. Don't underestimate this throw, the placement is great, it's in a spot where only Eazy could get it. If the Houston DB was going to intercept it, it would be pass interference. Speaking of, this is a good no call, plenty of hand fighting both ways.
Biggest play of the game right here, absolutely had to get 6. This is a really smart play call, especially against a blitz. Tech overloads the right side with routes, and creates a natural pick on the LB to free up White. This is not good from Burger and Deaton, which makes this a much more difficult play than it needs to be, but Shough creates just enough time to deliver a good ball. Some redemption for White as well.
Last three plays are all plays to Koontz, who had a great game, both blocking and receiving. I was convinced he had the talent, but we only saw glimpses due to a complete lack of use last season. Cumbie changed that, TE is no longer just an extra lineman. This is going to be a theme of Cumbie's offense, but this first play is basically free yards, which is great to see after a season where everything seemed so difficult on offense. Freeze the LB with play action, dump it to your talented TE, let him do the rest.
If the White TD was the biggest play of the game, this was the second biggest, this is the third down before that touchdown... also on third down. We are in 12 personnel, 1 RB and 2 TEs. We've got motion, which helps Shough and the receivers identify the coverage, then it's just mesh with Teeter and Koontz. This is really really well done by Koontz, he doesn't run into being covered, but finds the opening AND catches the ball and looks for the first down. Big time play. Unfortunately, the protection is bad, but it, again, shows the skill of Shough to complete this pass under duress.
This next play is actually the next play after the big Eazy screen. I am not a fan of tempo for tempo's sake, one spot I do like to use tempo is after a big play, like Cumbie does here. I also hate running a simple zone read play after every big play, most of the time that's just a waste of a down. This is a great use of it because I can promise you that Houston thought this was going to be a "look at me" situation where they switched the formation and called a play. Instead, they ran a simple all hitch play, Shough picked out the matchup he liked, and now Tech has an easy 2nd and 1.
It's fair to ask questions about the offensive line going forward because if this team wants to reach its potential then the offensive line HAS to play better or Shough will not make it through the season. It's also fair to question the receivers not named Price, Geiger, and Ezukanma, but I would make an exception for this game simply due to its weirdness. I'm sure Cumbie's target numbers got thrown off by the lack of plays ran and not touching the ball basically the entire first quarter. With all that being said, I'm encouraged by what I saw and I would suspect it will only get better if Shough can stay healthy. He was not flashy, but he was so good Saturday. He will give you a chance in every game Tech plays.
