The election of 2020 will set the tone for at least another decade,maybe 2. It is no longer the Republican Party. It is now the Democrats vs the Trump Party. The census of 2020 and resulting changes in redistricting and gerrymandering will make this year's election mean diddly. And what do we have to look forward to?
Trump benefited from an approval rate of about 75% on the economy, yet His "victory" was only 3 more Senate seats. With the country at full employment, there will probably be a rise, although small, in unemployment by 2020. Interest rate increases are likely because of the increasing likelihood of an increase in inflation. The deficit will become a bigger issue by 2020. Republicans will be blamed or accept credit since they still have the presidency, Senate, and Court. They have already shown an unwillingness to address spending when they had absolute control and unilateral ability to do it. With a split Congress, it will be harder. Adding to the problem is his pledge for additional tax cuts. If he reduces his request for a middle class cut from 10% to 5%, along with his capital gains cut and another 1% cut for corporations, it will blow up the deficit. Add in his promise of $300-400 billion for infrastructure, his wall, increased defense spending, and increasing interest rates, and you have a deficit that could reach $1.7 trillion. To keep it below $1 trillion, which is still unheard of in a good economy, just imagine the cuts in entitlement programs.. And if you start cutting Medicaid, Medicare, Social Security, and other programs for the poor, and most importantly the elderly, they will get blasted. And old people vote. All this is assuming the "best" case scenario that the trade wars end soon with the US winning. There are few fiscal stimulations available and interest rates, while rising, are still at historically low rates. So Lord help us if something does trigger a slight recession.
On the political front, the Republicans in Congress are more to the right and in bed with Trump than every before. In 2020, they'll also be more Trump Senate incumbents than Dems. The demographics are not in his favor. His white rural base is declining. And Reps suffered substantial losses in not just the cities, but also the suburbs. Huge increases in young, minority, and women voters will probably continue, especially in a presidential election year. A ban on abortion, while appealing to a declining white evangelical base, will hurt overall. His fear mongering of illegal voting will be replaced by House investigations of voter suppression. This will only increase registrations and voting, as will the new 1 million felon voters in Florida.
Finally, the split Congress.. Outside of the Meuller investigation, Trump was given a pass by Republicans too afraid to confront him. That ends with a Dem House. To what extent, no one knows. I tend to believe there will be no impeachment because its fruitless with a 2/3 vote in the Senate impossible to achieve. Besides, I think Dems realize Trump is his own worst enemy so let him bring the whole party to a crash and burn. Meuller will kick back in now and will bring out very embarrassing information and possibly an indictment of a few more, possibly Donald Jr. Trump's threat to Democrats is all wind. Oh, he'll try. But yOu know damn well that if he'd have had anything he'd have used it already. And fwiw, if he hasn't cleaned up the deep state in 4 years with his own picks, then who can he blame? Getting his tax returns is a given. No reason to break a precedent of presidents lasting 40 years. We all know that there will be things that will at least look very questionable. As for issues, will he still be screaming "lock her up" for 2 more years?. Will he be screaming "wolf" about more invasions? If he hasn't solved the immigration problem, can he blame Dems by 2020? With the EPA now irrelevant, will pollution increase? Yep. Do we really believe the climate will improve in 2 years? Nope. Will we have fewer mass shootings? Nope. And finally, with more attacks on him being inevitable, how will he respond on twitter, etc.? LOL. He can't and won't change who he is. Divisiveness was a top concern in exit polls. I think with a Dem house that you can expect liberals to be a little relieved by some checks on Trump and tone things down. I believe the opposite will happen with the extreme right as they see they're savior losing his buffer by an obedient Congress.
So...I suggest that the next 2 years will be very interesting. About the only saving grace would be the Dems nominating Sanders. Trump has to be able to pull out the socialist card. If the Dems get a moderate to replace Hilary, it will be a big problem. For Republicans, it is no longer the Republican Party. It is now the Trump Party. We'll see what happens in 2020.
Trump benefited from an approval rate of about 75% on the economy, yet His "victory" was only 3 more Senate seats. With the country at full employment, there will probably be a rise, although small, in unemployment by 2020. Interest rate increases are likely because of the increasing likelihood of an increase in inflation. The deficit will become a bigger issue by 2020. Republicans will be blamed or accept credit since they still have the presidency, Senate, and Court. They have already shown an unwillingness to address spending when they had absolute control and unilateral ability to do it. With a split Congress, it will be harder. Adding to the problem is his pledge for additional tax cuts. If he reduces his request for a middle class cut from 10% to 5%, along with his capital gains cut and another 1% cut for corporations, it will blow up the deficit. Add in his promise of $300-400 billion for infrastructure, his wall, increased defense spending, and increasing interest rates, and you have a deficit that could reach $1.7 trillion. To keep it below $1 trillion, which is still unheard of in a good economy, just imagine the cuts in entitlement programs.. And if you start cutting Medicaid, Medicare, Social Security, and other programs for the poor, and most importantly the elderly, they will get blasted. And old people vote. All this is assuming the "best" case scenario that the trade wars end soon with the US winning. There are few fiscal stimulations available and interest rates, while rising, are still at historically low rates. So Lord help us if something does trigger a slight recession.
On the political front, the Republicans in Congress are more to the right and in bed with Trump than every before. In 2020, they'll also be more Trump Senate incumbents than Dems. The demographics are not in his favor. His white rural base is declining. And Reps suffered substantial losses in not just the cities, but also the suburbs. Huge increases in young, minority, and women voters will probably continue, especially in a presidential election year. A ban on abortion, while appealing to a declining white evangelical base, will hurt overall. His fear mongering of illegal voting will be replaced by House investigations of voter suppression. This will only increase registrations and voting, as will the new 1 million felon voters in Florida.
Finally, the split Congress.. Outside of the Meuller investigation, Trump was given a pass by Republicans too afraid to confront him. That ends with a Dem House. To what extent, no one knows. I tend to believe there will be no impeachment because its fruitless with a 2/3 vote in the Senate impossible to achieve. Besides, I think Dems realize Trump is his own worst enemy so let him bring the whole party to a crash and burn. Meuller will kick back in now and will bring out very embarrassing information and possibly an indictment of a few more, possibly Donald Jr. Trump's threat to Democrats is all wind. Oh, he'll try. But yOu know damn well that if he'd have had anything he'd have used it already. And fwiw, if he hasn't cleaned up the deep state in 4 years with his own picks, then who can he blame? Getting his tax returns is a given. No reason to break a precedent of presidents lasting 40 years. We all know that there will be things that will at least look very questionable. As for issues, will he still be screaming "lock her up" for 2 more years?. Will he be screaming "wolf" about more invasions? If he hasn't solved the immigration problem, can he blame Dems by 2020? With the EPA now irrelevant, will pollution increase? Yep. Do we really believe the climate will improve in 2 years? Nope. Will we have fewer mass shootings? Nope. And finally, with more attacks on him being inevitable, how will he respond on twitter, etc.? LOL. He can't and won't change who he is. Divisiveness was a top concern in exit polls. I think with a Dem house that you can expect liberals to be a little relieved by some checks on Trump and tone things down. I believe the opposite will happen with the extreme right as they see they're savior losing his buffer by an obedient Congress.
So...I suggest that the next 2 years will be very interesting. About the only saving grace would be the Dems nominating Sanders. Trump has to be able to pull out the socialist card. If the Dems get a moderate to replace Hilary, it will be a big problem. For Republicans, it is no longer the Republican Party. It is now the Trump Party. We'll see what happens in 2020.
