In general, this is how college football lines end up being what they are:
Step 1 - Saturday night through Sunday afternoon
A few sportsbooks put up numbers on Saturday night and early Sunday morning. These numbers are largely worthless. The limits are really low and, even if they were high limits, a very small number of people can actually bet into them. A line is only predictive to the extent that (1) people can actually bet into them, and (2) the limits are high.
Step 2 - This step largely occurs on Sunday night through early Tuesday.
Sharp (but broke) people start betting into the lines and moving them significantly. In my experience, these are young guys that are super broke but also quite smart. They tend to lean on numbers - complex ones that aren't referenced by the talking heads on TV. These guys have their own models that spit out lines for every matchup. They are generally people that are really good at scraping play-by-play data (they are into coding or "good with computers"). These aren't "football people", per se. They are broke because they would not be betting into low limits if they were experienced / seasoned bettors or if their work was being used by seasoned bettors.
Sportsbooks LOVE these guys. They want nothing more than for them to bet into their lines at really low limits, allowing books to react to those bets / get good information for very cheap.
Sharp bettors HATE these guys. They see numbers Sunday through Tuesday that they really want to bet, but they are holding out until the limits get bigger. They don't want to bet $250 and destroy the market.
Step 3 - Tuesday through Friday.
Limits start to open up big time. These are now real lines that are predictive. They paint an accurate picture about the relative strength of teams. This is when the really sharp, serious people are betting into lines. Any movement in this stretch is the result of (1) new information, aka injury news or maybe the path of a hurricane or (2) someone that bets big and wins consistently has made a bet.
Step 4 - Saturday morning
Only the absolute sickos are betting now. In general, the only bets impacting the lines are massive ones made by people who have really solid injury information and, more importantly, know what to do with that information (aka they have a good understanding of what a specific player being in or out means to the line).
Bets from the "public" aka average joes -- regardless of size -- will not impact the line. This is one of the biggest misconceptions about big-market sports. Public betting percentages or public money does not impact the line outside of, maybe, only the Super Bowl.
I say all that to preface what's depicted in this tweet.
This is the line movement at the sportsbooks taking the biggest college football bets (betcris, circa, and pinnacle).
Tech opens +10.5 or +11 at most places. And at those super small limits, the line dropped to as low as +8.5 at some spots. That tells me that the broke (relatively sharp) nerds liked Tech at +10 or better and they pounded this line into submission. Whether or not the big boys agree remains to be seen, although the line is holding up now below +9.5.
I wonder what these nerds see in Tech? Of course, those bets may be influenced more about something with Oklahoma State than Tech. I pegged this line at Ok. State -11 before last week's games (see below) and it seems like most Tech & Oklahoma State fans would make it higher than -10.
Also shoutout to Sideline Provisions for sponsoring degenerate content like this. They are the real MVPs and the official apparel provider of Redraidersports.com
Owned and operated by Red Raiders, Sideline Provisions offers one of a kind items you can’t find anywhere else in the world. They are the original creator of the Guns Up logo and are the only place to get Dirk West original pieces.
Step 1 - Saturday night through Sunday afternoon
A few sportsbooks put up numbers on Saturday night and early Sunday morning. These numbers are largely worthless. The limits are really low and, even if they were high limits, a very small number of people can actually bet into them. A line is only predictive to the extent that (1) people can actually bet into them, and (2) the limits are high.
Step 2 - This step largely occurs on Sunday night through early Tuesday.
Sharp (but broke) people start betting into the lines and moving them significantly. In my experience, these are young guys that are super broke but also quite smart. They tend to lean on numbers - complex ones that aren't referenced by the talking heads on TV. These guys have their own models that spit out lines for every matchup. They are generally people that are really good at scraping play-by-play data (they are into coding or "good with computers"). These aren't "football people", per se. They are broke because they would not be betting into low limits if they were experienced / seasoned bettors or if their work was being used by seasoned bettors.
Sportsbooks LOVE these guys. They want nothing more than for them to bet into their lines at really low limits, allowing books to react to those bets / get good information for very cheap.
Sharp bettors HATE these guys. They see numbers Sunday through Tuesday that they really want to bet, but they are holding out until the limits get bigger. They don't want to bet $250 and destroy the market.
Step 3 - Tuesday through Friday.
Limits start to open up big time. These are now real lines that are predictive. They paint an accurate picture about the relative strength of teams. This is when the really sharp, serious people are betting into lines. Any movement in this stretch is the result of (1) new information, aka injury news or maybe the path of a hurricane or (2) someone that bets big and wins consistently has made a bet.
Step 4 - Saturday morning
Only the absolute sickos are betting now. In general, the only bets impacting the lines are massive ones made by people who have really solid injury information and, more importantly, know what to do with that information (aka they have a good understanding of what a specific player being in or out means to the line).
Bets from the "public" aka average joes -- regardless of size -- will not impact the line. This is one of the biggest misconceptions about big-market sports. Public betting percentages or public money does not impact the line outside of, maybe, only the Super Bowl.
I say all that to preface what's depicted in this tweet.
This is the line movement at the sportsbooks taking the biggest college football bets (betcris, circa, and pinnacle).
Tech opens +10.5 or +11 at most places. And at those super small limits, the line dropped to as low as +8.5 at some spots. That tells me that the broke (relatively sharp) nerds liked Tech at +10 or better and they pounded this line into submission. Whether or not the big boys agree remains to be seen, although the line is holding up now below +9.5.
I wonder what these nerds see in Tech? Of course, those bets may be influenced more about something with Oklahoma State than Tech. I pegged this line at Ok. State -11 before last week's games (see below) and it seems like most Tech & Oklahoma State fans would make it higher than -10.
Also shoutout to Sideline Provisions for sponsoring degenerate content like this. They are the real MVPs and the official apparel provider of Redraidersports.com
Owned and operated by Red Raiders, Sideline Provisions offers one of a kind items you can’t find anywhere else in the world. They are the original creator of the Guns Up logo and are the only place to get Dirk West original pieces.
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