Since the conference schedule just came out here are my way too early and likely inaccurate conference rankings/predictions. This was way harder than I thought. Good lord this conference is terrifying, and it has gotten only scarier over the last year or so. For me there are three distinct tiers to this conference: the elite of the elite with UH/ISU/Kansas, the upper middle of Arizona/Baylor/Tech, a loaded middle class of similar teams with Cinci/K State/TCU/BYU, and a grouping of the bottom with WVU/ASU/Okie State/UCF/Colorado/Utah. I will say this, while the top and middle of this conference is stronger than ever the cellar dwellers look much weaker than in years past.
1. Houston
Projected Starting 5: Milos Uzan. LJ Cryer, Emanuel Sharp, J'Wan Roberts, Javier Francis
Key Reserves: Terrence Arcneneaux, Jojo Tugler, Mylik Wilson
Thoughts: Houston is the unequivocal and emphatic number one team in the country in my opinion. They lost an inimitable leader and B12 POTY in Jamal Shead but otherwise kept an elite roster intact. There is no replacing Shead but Milos Uzan is stellar fit and is a dang good guard for Samson mold in his system. UH also returns all conference guard LJ Cryer and Emanuel Sharp emerged as a dangerous shooter and could be even better this year. In the front court staples Francis and Roberts return and are monster defenders and on the glass. And that’s just the starting 5, how many teams have 2 NBA prospects – Tugler and Arceneaux – coming off the bench. The only way I don’t see Houston being elite is if Uzan is just a complete bust as a transfer in. They will be scary once again.
2. Kansas
Projected Starting 5: Dajuan Harris, AJ Storr, Rylen Griffen, KJ Adams, Hunter Dickenson
Key Reserves: Shakeel Moore, Zeke Mayo, Flory Bidunga, David Coit, Rakease Passmore
Thoughts: Bill Self clearly saw the limitations of last year’s squad – shooting and depth – and went into the offseason determined to fix them. As a result KU is one of the most talented teams in the country. Dajuan Harris and KJ Adams may have hit their ceilings but each are plus starters and while Hunter Dickenson is a tool and plays basketball like a robot he is one of the better big men in the sport. On the perimeter KU brings dynamic scoring and positional size in Griffen and store, both are guys who can go for 20+ on a given night and have potential NBA futures. And off the bench Shakeel Moore and Zeke Mayo give KU depth in the form of a starting guard from a tournament team and a dangerous MM scorer. The front court depth is a bit shaky and there is only one basketball, but this team looks much improved over last year.
3. Iowa State
Projected Starting 5: Tamin Lipsey, Keshon Gilbert, Milan Momcilovic, Josh Jefferson, Dishon Jackson
Key Reserves: Curtis Jones, Nate Heise, Brandton Chatfield
Thoughts: At this point I really trust Otz as a coach and playing Iowa State is about as fun as watching Love Is Blind with my wife. They return the bulk of their roster from a dominant defensive team. Tamin Lipsey is one of the better PGs in the country, Keshon Gilbert was an all-conference guy and Milan Momcilovic could be one of the best young wings/bigs in the country. Not to mention adding front court/guard depth in Dishon Jackson and Nate Heise and one of the more underrated portal gets in Josh Jefferson. I do have offensive questions as it has been a grind on that end in the last few years and Lipsey will need to be a bit more consistent as a shooter. But this looks like a top 5-10 team to me.
4. Arizona
Projected Starting 5: Jaden Bradley, Caleb Love, KJ Lewis, Trey Townsend, Motiejus Krivas
Key Reserves: Tobe Awaka, Carter Bryant, Anthony Dell'Orso
Thoughts: A new addition to the conference and a near blueblood Arizona will be another top 15 team. They return mercurial guard and PAC 12 POTY Caleb Love, starting PG Jaden Bradley and added NCAA Tournament star Trey Townsend and athletic freak Tobe Awaka from Tennessee. This roster looks tailor made to play in Tommy Lloyd’s fast paced and interior oriented system. KJ Lewis is also a big time breakout candidate. I know they feel like they upgraded even after losing Oumar Ballo and Kylan Boswell but will that really be the case? And will Trey Townsend translate to the B12? These questions made me less certain than the three teams at the top of the conference but they will be dang good. Very high on the upside of this roster.
5. Baylor
Projected Starting 5: Jeremy Roach, Jayden Nunn, VJ Edgecombe, Norchad Omier, Josh Ojianwuna
Key Reserves: Langston Love, Jalen Celestine, Rob Wright
Thoughts: Baylor once again finds itself towards the top of the conference. They clearly had a blank check to play with in the portal after bringing in two top targets in Jeremy Roach and Norchad Omier. And once again Baylor brings in a potential lotto pick and the presumed favorite for B12 FOTY in VJ Edgecombe as well as returning underrated guards in Jayden Nunn and Langston Love. But there are questions on defense….. will Omier and Josh O be able to hold up in the front court? And who will protect the rim? They will have an extremely dangerous offense but the defense looks like less of a sure thing.
6. Texas Tech
Projected Starting 5: Elijah Hawkins, Chance McMillian, Darrion Williams, JT Toppin, Federiko Federiko
Key Reserves: Kerwin Walton, Kevin Overton, Devan Cambridge, Christian Anderson, Eemili Yalaho
Thoughts: Trying to stay unbiased as possible here. Tech returns key cogs in Kerwin Walton, Chance McMillian and one of the best wings in the conference in Darrion Williams and brings in a good transfer class headlined by JT Toppin and Elijah Hawkins. I love the versatility, shooting and potential depth of this roster. Grant clearly made an emphasis on size and athleticism when adding to the roster. There is definite upside with high ceiling players such as Kevin Overton and JT Toppin, a passing maestro in Elijah Hawkins and two of the best shooters in the country in Chance and Kerwin. I do worry a bit about depth at the big and PG spots….Christian Anderson and EY have clear talent but can they be rotation level players? And will Hawkins be able to hold up physically/defensively in the B12 for an entire season? There’s no denying the versatility and roster fit here but can someone like D5 or Toppin take another step and really emerge as a “dude”? Personally, I think that can happen and have Tech as a top 20ish team.
7. Kansas State
Projected Starting 5: Dug McDaniel, Brendan Hausen, Max Jones, Coleman Hawkins, Ugonna Onyenso
Key Reserves: David N'Guessan, Achor Achor, David Castillo
Thoughts: K State is coming off a disappointing season and is another squad that clearly bolstered the coffers this offseason. There is a ton of talent here lead by portal additions in McDaniel, Hawkins and Achor. The front court should be excellent, and this team will have size and length for days but how do they slot all of these guys and will there be any internal issues due to the depth? And David Castillo is drawing rave reviews as a freshman but will the guard corp outside of McDaniel be impactful. K State might have the widest range of outcomes in the whole conference.
8. Cincinnati
Projected Starting 5: Day Day Thomas, Dan Skillings, Simas Lukosius, Dillon Mitchell, Aziz Bandaogo
Key Reserves: Jizzle James, Connor Hickman, CJ Fredrick
Thoughts: Cinci was a surprise last year for me. They were well coached, very good defensively and generally competitive. But they just always looked like a team one step or piece away. They return the bulk of their squad this season. Simas Lukosius is very underrated and Dan Skillings and Jizzle James have uber high ceilings. And adding Dillon Mitchell seems to be a good fit for a team that should be very good defensively. But will the guards take a big enough leap to get them into the second weekend conversation? And will they make threes? Looks like a solid tournament team to me and one that will be a pain in the ass to play.
9. BYU
Projected Starters: Dallin Hall, Trevin Knell, Egor Demin, Mawot Mag, Fouss Traore
Key Reserves: Richie Saunders, Keba Keita, Dawson Baker, Kenon Catchings
Thoughts: BYU was a very pleasant surprise last year and now their coach and best player have moved on to Kentucky as a result. The remaining squad is largely intact though and provides a solid baseline moving forward. Dallin Hall is a solid floor general and Trevin Knell/ Richie Saunders provide good shooting and threats offensively from the perimeter. BYU also went out and got Egor Demin, a 6’9 russian wing who is thought to be a lottery talent and gifted offensive player. Mawot Mag, Keiba Keita, and Fouss Traore look to be a sturdy interior triumvirate but lack shooting and are undersized. How much does this team miss Aly Khalifa and Pope’s offensive system? And do they have anyone on the perimeter who can stress a defense? I am also dubious of relying heavily on first year Euros to be super impactful. Another team with an array of possible outcomes and could very well be a tournament team.
10. TCU
Projected Starters: Frankie Collins, Noah Reynolds, Brendan Wenzel, Traz White, Ernest Udeh
Key Reserves: Vasean Allette, Micah Robinson, Jace Posey
Thoughts: As much as I hate to admit it, Jamie Dixon is a damn good coach. But this is a weird roster to me. Frankie Collins is a typical Dixon guard who can really pressure the ball, get out in the open court and doesn’t shoot well at all. And Traz White is another guy who really puts pressure on the rim. Outside of that there are a ton of high variance/question guys in the back court and the roster in general seems to lack the physicality and size of other recent TCU teams. Will anyone be able to make a shot other than Wenzel? And who are the depth pieces? Hard team to gauge but Dixon probably gives them a competitive floor.
11. WVU
Projected Starters: Javon Small, Sencire Harris, Toby Okani, Tucker Devries, Eduardo Andre
Key Reserves: Jayden Stone, Joe Yesufu, Amani Hansberry
Thoughts: Darian Devries was a really good hire but it might take him a year or so to ramp up. Tucker Devries and Javon Small could be one of the best 1-2 punches in the conference but the 3-4-5 sequence is a huge question mark. The rest of the roster and especially the front court come with a lot of unknowns, I do like Amani Hansberry tho. Having one of the best players in the conference, a good guard in Small and a good coach in Devries WVU should be competitive and pesky night to night. If some of the pieces fit they could surprise folks.
12. Arizona State
Projected Starting 5: Alston Mason, Adam Miller, BJ Freeman, Basheer Jihad, Jayden Quaintance
Key Reserves: Joson Sanon, Shawn Phillips, Amier Ali
Thoughts: The talent here isn’t “awful” as they brought in 3 high level recruits and a good mid major guard in BJ Freeman but relying on Freshman reclass guys in this conference is a scary thought. And a back court of up transfers plus Adam Miller isn’t wonderful. They have some talent but I don’t think Hurley is here much longer.
13. Okie State
Projected Starting 5: Khalil Brantley, Devo Davis, Bryce Thompson, Marcellus Avery, Abou Ousmane
Key Reserves: Arturo Dean, Robert Jennings, Brandon Newman, Pat Suemnick
Thoughts: I think they knocked it out of the park hiring Steve Lutz and he will eventually build good teams at OSU. Don’t think that is this year. I can see the vision with this roster and with how he likes to pressure and push tempo but I don’t think the talent is quite there. OSU will have the quick guards to be pesky but they might be bad offensively. And the front court might be the worst in the conference. But they might surprise a few teams and catch them sleeping.
14. UCF
Projected Starting 5: Darius Johnson, Jaylin Sellers, Keyshawn Hall, Benny Williams, Rokas Jocius
Key Reserves: Jordan Ivy-Curry, Mikey Williams, Dior Johnson, JJ Taylor, Dallan Coleman
Thoughts: UCF was a legitimately solid team last year and returns two good players in Darius Johnson and Jaylin Sellers. I have no idea wtf Dawkins was thinking when he put together this roster. They aren’t the 14th most talented team in the conference, but it might be the most “troubled” roster in the country. Should be entertaining and highly combustible so I will be tuning in.
15. Colorado
Projected Starters: Julian Hammond, Javon Ruffin, Andrej Jakimovski, Trevor Baskin, Elijah Malone
Key Reserves: Bangot Dak, RJ Smith, Assane Diop
Thoughts: Colorado finds itself in a transition period after losing three players to the NBA off of a very good team. Boyle is a more than solid coach but usually takes some time to build and replacing that many good players with next to no NIL is a tough ask.
16. Utah
Projected Starting 5: Miro Little, Gabe Madsen, Mike Sharavjamts, Ezra Ausar, Lawson Lovering
Key Reserves: Mason Madsen, Hunter Erickson, Keanu Dawes, Zach Keller
Thoughts: Another team who lost a ton to the portal and graduation and lacking in NIL to replace them. Miro Little and Mongolian Mike could be kinda fun I guess?
1. Houston
Projected Starting 5: Milos Uzan. LJ Cryer, Emanuel Sharp, J'Wan Roberts, Javier Francis
Key Reserves: Terrence Arcneneaux, Jojo Tugler, Mylik Wilson
Thoughts: Houston is the unequivocal and emphatic number one team in the country in my opinion. They lost an inimitable leader and B12 POTY in Jamal Shead but otherwise kept an elite roster intact. There is no replacing Shead but Milos Uzan is stellar fit and is a dang good guard for Samson mold in his system. UH also returns all conference guard LJ Cryer and Emanuel Sharp emerged as a dangerous shooter and could be even better this year. In the front court staples Francis and Roberts return and are monster defenders and on the glass. And that’s just the starting 5, how many teams have 2 NBA prospects – Tugler and Arceneaux – coming off the bench. The only way I don’t see Houston being elite is if Uzan is just a complete bust as a transfer in. They will be scary once again.
2. Kansas
Projected Starting 5: Dajuan Harris, AJ Storr, Rylen Griffen, KJ Adams, Hunter Dickenson
Key Reserves: Shakeel Moore, Zeke Mayo, Flory Bidunga, David Coit, Rakease Passmore
Thoughts: Bill Self clearly saw the limitations of last year’s squad – shooting and depth – and went into the offseason determined to fix them. As a result KU is one of the most talented teams in the country. Dajuan Harris and KJ Adams may have hit their ceilings but each are plus starters and while Hunter Dickenson is a tool and plays basketball like a robot he is one of the better big men in the sport. On the perimeter KU brings dynamic scoring and positional size in Griffen and store, both are guys who can go for 20+ on a given night and have potential NBA futures. And off the bench Shakeel Moore and Zeke Mayo give KU depth in the form of a starting guard from a tournament team and a dangerous MM scorer. The front court depth is a bit shaky and there is only one basketball, but this team looks much improved over last year.
3. Iowa State
Projected Starting 5: Tamin Lipsey, Keshon Gilbert, Milan Momcilovic, Josh Jefferson, Dishon Jackson
Key Reserves: Curtis Jones, Nate Heise, Brandton Chatfield
Thoughts: At this point I really trust Otz as a coach and playing Iowa State is about as fun as watching Love Is Blind with my wife. They return the bulk of their roster from a dominant defensive team. Tamin Lipsey is one of the better PGs in the country, Keshon Gilbert was an all-conference guy and Milan Momcilovic could be one of the best young wings/bigs in the country. Not to mention adding front court/guard depth in Dishon Jackson and Nate Heise and one of the more underrated portal gets in Josh Jefferson. I do have offensive questions as it has been a grind on that end in the last few years and Lipsey will need to be a bit more consistent as a shooter. But this looks like a top 5-10 team to me.
4. Arizona
Projected Starting 5: Jaden Bradley, Caleb Love, KJ Lewis, Trey Townsend, Motiejus Krivas
Key Reserves: Tobe Awaka, Carter Bryant, Anthony Dell'Orso
Thoughts: A new addition to the conference and a near blueblood Arizona will be another top 15 team. They return mercurial guard and PAC 12 POTY Caleb Love, starting PG Jaden Bradley and added NCAA Tournament star Trey Townsend and athletic freak Tobe Awaka from Tennessee. This roster looks tailor made to play in Tommy Lloyd’s fast paced and interior oriented system. KJ Lewis is also a big time breakout candidate. I know they feel like they upgraded even after losing Oumar Ballo and Kylan Boswell but will that really be the case? And will Trey Townsend translate to the B12? These questions made me less certain than the three teams at the top of the conference but they will be dang good. Very high on the upside of this roster.
5. Baylor
Projected Starting 5: Jeremy Roach, Jayden Nunn, VJ Edgecombe, Norchad Omier, Josh Ojianwuna
Key Reserves: Langston Love, Jalen Celestine, Rob Wright
Thoughts: Baylor once again finds itself towards the top of the conference. They clearly had a blank check to play with in the portal after bringing in two top targets in Jeremy Roach and Norchad Omier. And once again Baylor brings in a potential lotto pick and the presumed favorite for B12 FOTY in VJ Edgecombe as well as returning underrated guards in Jayden Nunn and Langston Love. But there are questions on defense….. will Omier and Josh O be able to hold up in the front court? And who will protect the rim? They will have an extremely dangerous offense but the defense looks like less of a sure thing.
6. Texas Tech
Projected Starting 5: Elijah Hawkins, Chance McMillian, Darrion Williams, JT Toppin, Federiko Federiko
Key Reserves: Kerwin Walton, Kevin Overton, Devan Cambridge, Christian Anderson, Eemili Yalaho
Thoughts: Trying to stay unbiased as possible here. Tech returns key cogs in Kerwin Walton, Chance McMillian and one of the best wings in the conference in Darrion Williams and brings in a good transfer class headlined by JT Toppin and Elijah Hawkins. I love the versatility, shooting and potential depth of this roster. Grant clearly made an emphasis on size and athleticism when adding to the roster. There is definite upside with high ceiling players such as Kevin Overton and JT Toppin, a passing maestro in Elijah Hawkins and two of the best shooters in the country in Chance and Kerwin. I do worry a bit about depth at the big and PG spots….Christian Anderson and EY have clear talent but can they be rotation level players? And will Hawkins be able to hold up physically/defensively in the B12 for an entire season? There’s no denying the versatility and roster fit here but can someone like D5 or Toppin take another step and really emerge as a “dude”? Personally, I think that can happen and have Tech as a top 20ish team.
7. Kansas State
Projected Starting 5: Dug McDaniel, Brendan Hausen, Max Jones, Coleman Hawkins, Ugonna Onyenso
Key Reserves: David N'Guessan, Achor Achor, David Castillo
Thoughts: K State is coming off a disappointing season and is another squad that clearly bolstered the coffers this offseason. There is a ton of talent here lead by portal additions in McDaniel, Hawkins and Achor. The front court should be excellent, and this team will have size and length for days but how do they slot all of these guys and will there be any internal issues due to the depth? And David Castillo is drawing rave reviews as a freshman but will the guard corp outside of McDaniel be impactful. K State might have the widest range of outcomes in the whole conference.
8. Cincinnati
Projected Starting 5: Day Day Thomas, Dan Skillings, Simas Lukosius, Dillon Mitchell, Aziz Bandaogo
Key Reserves: Jizzle James, Connor Hickman, CJ Fredrick
Thoughts: Cinci was a surprise last year for me. They were well coached, very good defensively and generally competitive. But they just always looked like a team one step or piece away. They return the bulk of their squad this season. Simas Lukosius is very underrated and Dan Skillings and Jizzle James have uber high ceilings. And adding Dillon Mitchell seems to be a good fit for a team that should be very good defensively. But will the guards take a big enough leap to get them into the second weekend conversation? And will they make threes? Looks like a solid tournament team to me and one that will be a pain in the ass to play.
9. BYU
Projected Starters: Dallin Hall, Trevin Knell, Egor Demin, Mawot Mag, Fouss Traore
Key Reserves: Richie Saunders, Keba Keita, Dawson Baker, Kenon Catchings
Thoughts: BYU was a very pleasant surprise last year and now their coach and best player have moved on to Kentucky as a result. The remaining squad is largely intact though and provides a solid baseline moving forward. Dallin Hall is a solid floor general and Trevin Knell/ Richie Saunders provide good shooting and threats offensively from the perimeter. BYU also went out and got Egor Demin, a 6’9 russian wing who is thought to be a lottery talent and gifted offensive player. Mawot Mag, Keiba Keita, and Fouss Traore look to be a sturdy interior triumvirate but lack shooting and are undersized. How much does this team miss Aly Khalifa and Pope’s offensive system? And do they have anyone on the perimeter who can stress a defense? I am also dubious of relying heavily on first year Euros to be super impactful. Another team with an array of possible outcomes and could very well be a tournament team.
10. TCU
Projected Starters: Frankie Collins, Noah Reynolds, Brendan Wenzel, Traz White, Ernest Udeh
Key Reserves: Vasean Allette, Micah Robinson, Jace Posey
Thoughts: As much as I hate to admit it, Jamie Dixon is a damn good coach. But this is a weird roster to me. Frankie Collins is a typical Dixon guard who can really pressure the ball, get out in the open court and doesn’t shoot well at all. And Traz White is another guy who really puts pressure on the rim. Outside of that there are a ton of high variance/question guys in the back court and the roster in general seems to lack the physicality and size of other recent TCU teams. Will anyone be able to make a shot other than Wenzel? And who are the depth pieces? Hard team to gauge but Dixon probably gives them a competitive floor.
11. WVU
Projected Starters: Javon Small, Sencire Harris, Toby Okani, Tucker Devries, Eduardo Andre
Key Reserves: Jayden Stone, Joe Yesufu, Amani Hansberry
Thoughts: Darian Devries was a really good hire but it might take him a year or so to ramp up. Tucker Devries and Javon Small could be one of the best 1-2 punches in the conference but the 3-4-5 sequence is a huge question mark. The rest of the roster and especially the front court come with a lot of unknowns, I do like Amani Hansberry tho. Having one of the best players in the conference, a good guard in Small and a good coach in Devries WVU should be competitive and pesky night to night. If some of the pieces fit they could surprise folks.
12. Arizona State
Projected Starting 5: Alston Mason, Adam Miller, BJ Freeman, Basheer Jihad, Jayden Quaintance
Key Reserves: Joson Sanon, Shawn Phillips, Amier Ali
Thoughts: The talent here isn’t “awful” as they brought in 3 high level recruits and a good mid major guard in BJ Freeman but relying on Freshman reclass guys in this conference is a scary thought. And a back court of up transfers plus Adam Miller isn’t wonderful. They have some talent but I don’t think Hurley is here much longer.
13. Okie State
Projected Starting 5: Khalil Brantley, Devo Davis, Bryce Thompson, Marcellus Avery, Abou Ousmane
Key Reserves: Arturo Dean, Robert Jennings, Brandon Newman, Pat Suemnick
Thoughts: I think they knocked it out of the park hiring Steve Lutz and he will eventually build good teams at OSU. Don’t think that is this year. I can see the vision with this roster and with how he likes to pressure and push tempo but I don’t think the talent is quite there. OSU will have the quick guards to be pesky but they might be bad offensively. And the front court might be the worst in the conference. But they might surprise a few teams and catch them sleeping.
14. UCF
Projected Starting 5: Darius Johnson, Jaylin Sellers, Keyshawn Hall, Benny Williams, Rokas Jocius
Key Reserves: Jordan Ivy-Curry, Mikey Williams, Dior Johnson, JJ Taylor, Dallan Coleman
Thoughts: UCF was a legitimately solid team last year and returns two good players in Darius Johnson and Jaylin Sellers. I have no idea wtf Dawkins was thinking when he put together this roster. They aren’t the 14th most talented team in the conference, but it might be the most “troubled” roster in the country. Should be entertaining and highly combustible so I will be tuning in.
15. Colorado
Projected Starters: Julian Hammond, Javon Ruffin, Andrej Jakimovski, Trevor Baskin, Elijah Malone
Key Reserves: Bangot Dak, RJ Smith, Assane Diop
Thoughts: Colorado finds itself in a transition period after losing three players to the NBA off of a very good team. Boyle is a more than solid coach but usually takes some time to build and replacing that many good players with next to no NIL is a tough ask.
16. Utah
Projected Starting 5: Miro Little, Gabe Madsen, Mike Sharavjamts, Ezra Ausar, Lawson Lovering
Key Reserves: Mason Madsen, Hunter Erickson, Keanu Dawes, Zach Keller
Thoughts: Another team who lost a ton to the portal and graduation and lacking in NIL to replace them. Miro Little and Mongolian Mike could be kinda fun I guess?
