Just like the Cinci game was a swing game I think this game against UCF is very similar. Tech needs a win in the worst of ways and holding serve at home is the best way to do this. UCF is a team that shares a few characteristics with Cinci but I see them more as the stepped-on version, especially on offense. They are large, athletic, and old as hell, so generally a pain in the ass to play. On the plus side UCF does not shoot efficiently from anywhere on the floor and are probably the worst offensive team in the conference. Weirdly enough even with their size and athleticism and the fact that they are a good offensive rebounding team, UCF finishes at a very low rate close to the basket. But despite the fact that UCF is not great offensively they are a very good defensive team and have alot of the qualities that Tech has struggled with this season. Tech cannot sleepwalk into this game and I hope to the holy basketball gods that they are not sick (or just not as sick). UCF has beaten good teams this year. I am interested to see if Tech comes out playing with a real purpose. Because this is a must win game.
UCF by the numbers:
Players to Know:
Keys to the game:
UCF by the numbers:
- 66th in the country per Kenpom
- 185th on offense
- 9th on defense
- 75th in the country per Haslametrics
- 197th on offense
- 12th on defense
- 62nd in the country per Torvik
- 204th on offense
- 6th on defense
- 26th in the country in SPG
- 10th in the country in BPG and 3rd in the country in block %
- Turn the ball over a lot - 275th in the country in TO% on offense
- Turn the opposing team over alot - 24th in the country in defensive TO%
- Rebound well - 48th in the country in OR%
- 16th in the country in 2p% allowed - 16%
- Get to the line well - 51st in the country in FTAR but only shoot 70% (240th)
- 299th in the country in near proximity fg%
- Shoot 42% from the field - 271st in the country
- Opponents shoot 39.9% from the field - 25th in the country
- 142nd in the country in 3PAR allowed
- 3rd best near proximity fg% allowed in the country - 47%
Players to Know:
- Darius Johnson - 3rd year PG and the leader of this UCF team. Johnson is the rare home-grown guard who has steadily improved over his tenure. Funnily enough he is the godson of the UCF HC. Offensively he is one of the few players on the roster who is capable of getting his own shot. Needless to say, more than anyone else on the team they go as he goes. Offensively he is solid if unspectacular. UCF puts him in a ton of ball screens with their bigs or wings where he is solid, but he struggles to finish at the basket. He is not a great athlete, but he is very strong and uses his strength well to get positioning but when he gets to the rim, he has trouble shooting over lengthy defenders. On the perimeter he is almost exclusively looking for his pull up. He is an above average three point shooter (38%) but he runs very hot and cold. A solid passer but has had problems with turnovers. Struggled against Cinci and UH. Gets to the line at a fairly decent clip and shoots right under 80%. On defense Johnson is a bulldog who lives in the air space of the ballhandler. He is very strong for his size and can hold his own against bigger players. Extremely quick hands, averaging 2 spg, and he is at his best ripping and running in transition off of TO's. Averaging 13.1 ppg, 3 rpg, 4 apg, 2 spg. 6'1 200.
- Jaylin Sellers - Transfer from Ball State with a rep as a shooter and the best scorer on UCF's roster. Sellers is the best bucket-getter for the UCF and really the only guy wired to score first. He is well-built for a combo guard and is a good athlete. Doesn't have a crazy deep bag or the flashiest handle but gets to his spots. Lefty who is very LH dominant and doesn't go right often. Sellers is a strong downhill driver who attacks closeouts hard and can get to the rim as a two-foot finisher. He absorbs contact well and lives at the FT line (86% on over 5 attempts a game). Will pull up from mid-range as well and flashes a post-up game situationally. His weakness is shooting from deep. Historically Sellers is a very good shooter (`45% from three his first two years) but this year he is shooting under 30% on a high-volume diet. He can also get very trigger happy from deep and takes some bad deep 3's. But, this is also a guy who can go on an absolute heater from three if left regularly unattended. Sellers is not looking to pass, he is looking to shoot first for sure. Very good in transition. On defense he is not the ball-hawk that Johnson is but he is a very good perimeter defender and has the highest DWS rating on the team. He will body up and push guards way outside the offense. Averages 17.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 1.2 apg and 1.3 spg. 6'4 196.
- Ibrahim Diallo - Transfer by way of Ohio State and San Jose State. Diallo is the defensive hub of this UCF team. Offensively he is mostly a rim runner who gets most of his looks off of lobs and put backs but UCF at times will try to work through him in the post. He is uber aggressive on both ends of the floor and attacks hard when posted up but he does not have the best touch or most advanced moves. Really goes at the offensive glass and is very effective considering he is huge and has a high motor. Physical screen setter. Bad FT shooter at 56%. His strength is on the defensive end. In only at mpg Diallo is the leading shot blocker in the conference. He changes the entire geometry of the court when he is on the floor and has real gravity as a shot blocker. Diallo has very good timing and alters just as many shots as he blocks. Mobile enough to play in space a bit and goes to the glass hard. Has a tendency to get in foul trouble quickly. Averaging 6.2 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 2 bpg. 7'0 250.
- Shemarri Allen - Transfer from UMKC and former All-Summit league honoree. Allen is the third starting guard on most nights but has had some injury trouble in conference play. Very inefficient offensively and not a shooter. Will work some in ball screens and has a bit of shake to his game and real size for a guard. He is not a great athlete but uses his size and strength well on defense. Allen is what I call a "chaos causing defender" and has tremendous anticipation and hands on that end. And is constantly deflecting/stealing the ball and is a turnover causing machine. His best offense is turning the opposing team over. Averaging 7.3 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 2.6 apg, 1.9 apg, and .8 bpg. 6'4 190.
- Marchelus Avery/Antwann Jones - These two are both long and twitchy wing types. Avery (6'7 210) is the more offensive minded of the two and has some perimeter skill to his game. He is UCF's third leading scorer and 6th man. On offense he is mostly a jump shooter who takes over half of his shots from deep where he shoots a solid ~37% on 4 a game. Inside the arc he is not a great finisher for his size and has a habit of taking tough, contested jumpers. Very streaky and can shoot himself in or out of a game. Averages 9 ppg, 4.5 rpg, .7 spg. Jones (6'6 220) is a high-efficiency, low usage player who has started to play a bigger role lately. Shoots 47% from deep on low volume. Averages 4.9 ppg, 2 rpg, .7 spg. Both are switchable defenders who run the floor hard.
- Omar Payne/ Thierno Sylla - Are the backup bigs. Payne (6'10, 230) is a transfer from Florida/Illinois/Jacksonville who is so old he played in the tournament against the 2018 Texas Tech team. He is your typical bruiser and garbage man on offense and an excellent shot blocker on defense. But is one of the more foul prone players in the conference. Sylla (6'11 216) is a perimeter-oriented big who takes mostly jumpers. Nice looking shot but he is not a good shooter % wise. Shoots 29% from three and 42% from two. Averages 4.9 ppg, 3.8 rpg, .5 bpg.
Keys to the game:
- Actually win at the FT line - Winning at the FT line has been a constant for this iteration of Tech basketball but they have not done so during this three-game slide. Need to get back to that aggressive nature and play to one of their strengths. Also, getting UCF's bigs in foul trouble would be an added bonus. UCF likes to foul.
- Value the ball - Another issue that has been a thorn in Tech's side as of late is ball security. Whether it has been fatigue driven or just trying to force things Tech has seen an uptick in TO's. UCF's best offense is causing the opposing team to cough up the rock. They thrive off of it so no soft passes or leaving your feet to make a pass this weekend.
- Efficient Pop - I know he has been sick but Pop has semi-reverted to the start of the season where he was uber-inefficient and pressing way too much. Tech needs the version of Pop who was playing at his own tempo. He doesn't have to be the picture of efficiency but shooting north of 40% would be great. Tech has to win the battle of the guards in this one.
- Zpacks - This is just me pleading for Tech to at least be semi-healthy coming into Saturday. They desperately need Washington to be playable. He might not be their best player but he damn sure is their most important.
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