It feels weird to not be watching, posting about or thinking about Tech playing a non-B12 team. The non-con feels like a distant memory but I gotta admit.... it's a bit refreshing. It's the best sporting event of the year and it's fun to write about teams outside of the same 14 we have been grinding it out against for the past few months. Conference play was fun but this is even funner (spelling). A personal confession, my first reaction to seeing this pairing was "oh shit that's not good". But that was very reactionary and probably includes some recency bias from watching NC State in their conference tournament. After digging into some game replays and other film I started to feel a lot better. NC State for most of the year has been decidedly mediocre and while there is no getting around how hot they've been this is a flawed opponent. One with some nice pieces for sure but still very flawed and very beatable. On the personal front I actually went to an NC State game earlier this year when I happened to be in the area and trying to parse what I saw there with their recent play is difficult. I was thoroughly unimpressed and saw them lose to a below-average Va Tech team. They didn't play defense and they looked poorly coached. NC State hasn't become an unbeatable juggernaut, but they clearly aren't the same below average team they were, the truth is somewhere in the middle. This should be a fun game but if Tech plays like they have been (with the exception of the UH game) and Washington is able to give them some minutes, Tech should win. I also hope Tech beats the hell out of NC State just to spite the incredibly annoying woman I sat next to during the game I went to.
NC State by the numbers:
Keys to the game:
NC State by the numbers:
- 58th per Kenpom
- 47th on offense
- 89th on defense
- 63rd per Torvik
- 47th on offense
- 98th on defense
- 49th per Haslametrics
- 39th on offense
- 72nd on defense
- 52nd overall per Evan Miya
- 45th on offense
- 90th on defense
- Don't turn the ball over - 9th lowest TO% in the country
- Don't get their shot blocked much - 60th in the country
- Don't take a ton of threes - 280th in the country in 3PAR
- Get to the line well - 28th in the country FTAR
- Middling FT% - 73% (114th)
- Don't put you on the line - 58th in the country in FTAR against
- Will take midrange jumpers - 67th in the country in MRAR
- 124th in the country in near proximity attempt rate
- 81st in FG% @ 46%
- Teams shoot nearly 35% from 3 against them - 250th in the country (not good)
- Not a prolific offensive rebounding team - 183rd in the country in OR%
- DJ Horne - Transfer from Arizona State and former teammate of Devan Cambridge and Warren Washington. NCSU's best guard, leading scorer and an All-ACC team member Horne is an absolute bucket. He is the catalyst to what NC State does offensively and can be very dangerous if he gets rolling. Horn is diminutive and not overly explosive but despite that is one of the best scorers in the ACC. He plays with a real swagger and is not shy about taking shots. Horne is one of the better shooters off the bounce in the country and is most dangerous when the ball is in his hands with a live dribble. He doesn't need much space to get his shot off and will launch contested jumpers, utilizing a quick release. NC State will put him in a ton of ball screens where he is particularly dangerous and uses change of speed and leverage very well to create space. Not a great finisher as he is small and not particularly explosive. Will hit circus shots but struggles to finish over length consistently. The bulk of his shot making is done on jumpers and will take midrange jumpers along with threes. Deadly from 3, shooting 41% on 6 attempts a game. Cannot give him space. Just an okay passer. Mainly wired to score and can be a bit over ambitious. Not a great defender, dies on screens and is inattentive off ball. Will get into opposing ballhandlers air space initially but can be taken advantage of. Good FT shooter (80%). Averaging 16.9 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2.1 apg, 1.4 spg. 6'1 195.
- DJ Burnes - Big bodied post transfer from Winthrop and Tennessee. Former teammate of Adonis Arms. Burns is a wholly unique player, I can comfortably say there is no one in the country like him. He has one of the oddest body types you will ever see in a basketball player in combination with his considerable skill and nimble footwork. He's not without his flaws but he is fun to watch. Offensively he presents a sizeable matchup problem. Not only is he tall (6'9) but he has to go 300+ on the scale. Burns looks like a classic banger but he is much more than that. He definitely can toss his weight around but some of the footwork you see out of him just doesn't seem possible from a guy his size and he also has great touch around the basket out to midrange. Second to Horne he is NC State's most important offensive player. Burns whole MO begins and ends with posting up. But this doesn't mean he will operate like a traditional back to the basket big. Most of his post-ups will start from the midrange extended and he will look to sizeup and then back down his defender. Heck, I have seen him start some post-ups from behind the arc. Burns is able to use his bulk to his advantage and easily move defenders when he gets them on his hip. He made Armando Bacot look like a damn bowling pin the other day. Burns loves to get to a spin move when posting and especially loves to spin over his left shoulder but he doesn't always finish off of one spin and will utilize up and unders and pivots so defenders must be wary not to bite on the initial moves. He is also way quicker in confined spaces than he looks. Left handed and very dominant. Will try to get to his left at all costs. Also has good touch from midrange and will take jumpers. Very dangerous as a passer, especially in double teams, and has a real knack for finding shooters. NC State will use him in ball screens but will put him in the short roll to playmake or establish post position. Can be a bit turnover prone and is not a great rebounder. Doesn't shoot as many FTs as you would think. Just an ok post defender. Not a shot blocking presence and an awful defender in space. In poor shape and doesn't always run the floor. Very emotional player and can let it control how he plays. Averaging 12.4 ppg, 4 rpg, 2.8 apg.
- Casey Morsell - Former top 50 recruit and transfer from Virginia. Not quite as explosive as Jayden Taylor or DJ Horne but a solid guard who is the best perimeter defender on this NC State team. Offensively Morsell is not a high usage guy but is very solid. He is a big bodied guard who is the most physical driver of the Wolfpack guard trio. Morsell is still mostly dependent on his jumper to score but is best shooting in the midrange. He will come off rub screens or pull up after attacking closeouts in the midrange. Morsell isn't heaviley utilized in ball screens and is mostly a CnS guy and straight-line driver. Doesn't have a lot of shake or juice off the bounce but uses his body well and finishes at a solid clip. Historically he is a solid 3 point shooter but he has really struggled from distance this year (26%). Has had nights where he is hot from 3 so can't really treat him like a non-shooter. Not a great ball handler or passer. Very good FT shooter. Probably the best on ball defender for NC State and doesn't get out of position very often. Very physical at the POA. Averages 11.5 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 1.7 apg, 1spg . 6'3 200.
- Jayden Taylor - Transfer guard from Butler. Jayden is another integral piece of the NC State guard corp. Offensively he is probably their second most dynamic guard behind DJ Horne. Taylor is a bit bigger than Horne but shares several of the same characteristics as him. He is shifty with the ball in his hands and has some shake to his game off the bounce. Moreso than Morsell he will attack off of ball screens and get to the rim rather than settling for midrange jumpers. Very right hand dominant. Not an explosive finisher but is crafty finishing around the rim. Can get bumped off his drives by physical defenders. Solid shooter from distance (36% on solid volume). Not much of a playmaker but does get to the line at a good clip. Taylor has good positional size defensively but get misses rotations and is iffy in ball screens. Averaging 11.9 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.4 apg , 1.2 spg. 6'4 195.
- Michael O'Connell - Transfer guard from Stanford. O'Connell is the closest thing NC State has to a true PG. Offensively he is the basketball equivalent of a game managing QB in football. He is not a plus athlete or particularly big, but O'Connell is a high iq player who doesn't make many mistakes. O'Connell is adept at finding shooters and cutters across the floor and is a good entry passer for Burns. He isn't a good shooter historically but has seen his shooting numbers skyrocket late in the season (35% on low volume on three). He is playing his best offensive basketball of the year right now. O'Connell will take the occasional pull-up but is more likely to shoot off the catch and is not much of a threat off the bounce. Doesn't have much shake to his game and is a below-average finisher. Solid rebounder for his size. Pesky on defense but has limitations due to his lack of athleticism and size. Averaging 5.7 ppg, 3 apg, 3.3 rpg but has scored in double figures in his last 5 games. 6'2 195.
- Mo Diarra / Ben Middlebrooks -Diarra (6'10 215) is a big imported from France by way of Mizzou and the starter opposite Burns. He is a high-energy big who relentlessly attacks the glass (Broke the ACC tournament rebounding record). Diarra has an incredible motor and instincts that lead to him gobbling up rebounds but he is fairly limited offensively. Not a post up guy and most of his shots come from the dunker spot or off put-backs. Will step out and shoot threes (33% on 1 per game). Mobile in space defensively and a decent rim protector. Averages 6 ppg, 7.4 rpg and 1 bpg. Middlebrooks (6'10 240) is a transfer from Clemson and effort guy off the bench. He is there to screen, defend the PnR and rebound. Not particularly skilled offensively but is a good screen setter and roll man. Almost all of his baskets are set up by others. Not a great athlete but plays really hard. Gets to the line at a high clip. Averages 5.5 ppg, 4.1 rp.
Keys to the game:
- Get downhill - Tech struggles with physical backcourts with length. That is not NC State. Tech's guards should be able to exploit the defense and create off the bounce. Doing so will lead to looks for shooters. That's the recipe.
- Compete on the glass - Tech is not a great rebounding team, we know this. But they have been much better lately, especially on the offensive glass. Need this to continue.
- No Air Space - Tech cannot allow Taylor/Morsell and especially Horne to get clean looks consistently. When they get rolling NC State is dangerous.
- Collective front court - It will be interesting to see how Tech schemes Burns defensively. Either way Tech will need a solid effort from EY and Jennings to throw bodies at him. Get him frustrated.
- Who is less healthy? - Both teams are banged up. Guards for NC State are banged up and they have played alot of games in a short amount of time. Tech has an entire front court who has missed games recently. Tech needs Darrion and Warren for this one.
