Some good stuff from ESPNs College football Week 6 takeaways:
Say this much for Joey McGuire's Texas Tech Red Raiders: They are absolutely fearless. They played five ranked (at the time) opponents in a row, beat two of them (Houston and Texas) and were tied or three points of two others in the fourth quarter (Kansas State and Oklahoma State) before eventually falling.
They did this despite suffering some major injury issues at quarterback -- starter Tyler Shough threw just 10 passes in the opener before suffering a shoulder injury (he should return in the coming weeks), and backup Donovan Smith was sidelined for Saturday's challenge of Oklahoma State, giving way to redshirt freshman Behren Morton, who was doing great until a third-quarter ankle injury of his own.
Their secret weapon to overcoming these issues and trading blows with good teams: remembering that 4 > 3.
No FBS team has attempted more fourth-down conversions than the Red Raiders, who are 14-for-25 through six games. Their six successful conversions against Texas made most of the difference in that upset win, and they converted four more in building an 8-point, third-quarter cushion against OSU on Saturday. While there have been a few by-necessity attempts -- Smith's fourth-and-20 completion to Jerand Bradley in overtime against Houston, for example -- most of this is a deliberate strategy and a reflection of the times. Tech has gone for it five times on fourth-and-1 (including twice in its own territory), seven times on fourth-and-2 or 3 and five times on fourth-and-4 or 5.
Last spring, I spoke with Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin and an army of nerds about the sharp and rather sudden increase in fourth-down attempts at the college level. It was the lowest-hanging fruit on the analytics tree, and once a few teams found success in picking it, much of the rest of the country followed suit.
That trend has certainly continued this fall. Just five seasons ago in 2017, only one team averaged more than three fourth-down attempts per game (Syracuse), and only five were over 2.5. Thus far in 2022, two teams are over four (Tech and Central Michigan), nine are over three and 21 are over 2.5.
I'm going to follow Mina Kimes' lead and declare that we're looking at fourth downs all wrong. So many coaches and fans (and announcing crews) look at the uptick in fourth-down attempts somewhat skeptically, as if nerds and their spreadsheets and pocket protectors are having an undue and untoward impact on the way the game is being played. Nonsense! We should instead look at it as an uptick in bravery and alpha behavior. And there's probably some poetry in the fact that a team from West Texas, with its gun-slinging mascot, is leading the way in this rugged, bravado-heavy activity. Keep showing us the way, Tech. Keep playing your fearless ball.
A note about Texas Tech and fourth downs
No. 7 Oklahoma State 41, Texas Tech 31Say this much for Joey McGuire's Texas Tech Red Raiders: They are absolutely fearless. They played five ranked (at the time) opponents in a row, beat two of them (Houston and Texas) and were tied or three points of two others in the fourth quarter (Kansas State and Oklahoma State) before eventually falling.
They did this despite suffering some major injury issues at quarterback -- starter Tyler Shough threw just 10 passes in the opener before suffering a shoulder injury (he should return in the coming weeks), and backup Donovan Smith was sidelined for Saturday's challenge of Oklahoma State, giving way to redshirt freshman Behren Morton, who was doing great until a third-quarter ankle injury of his own.
Their secret weapon to overcoming these issues and trading blows with good teams: remembering that 4 > 3.
No FBS team has attempted more fourth-down conversions than the Red Raiders, who are 14-for-25 through six games. Their six successful conversions against Texas made most of the difference in that upset win, and they converted four more in building an 8-point, third-quarter cushion against OSU on Saturday. While there have been a few by-necessity attempts -- Smith's fourth-and-20 completion to Jerand Bradley in overtime against Houston, for example -- most of this is a deliberate strategy and a reflection of the times. Tech has gone for it five times on fourth-and-1 (including twice in its own territory), seven times on fourth-and-2 or 3 and five times on fourth-and-4 or 5.
Last spring, I spoke with Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin and an army of nerds about the sharp and rather sudden increase in fourth-down attempts at the college level. It was the lowest-hanging fruit on the analytics tree, and once a few teams found success in picking it, much of the rest of the country followed suit.
That trend has certainly continued this fall. Just five seasons ago in 2017, only one team averaged more than three fourth-down attempts per game (Syracuse), and only five were over 2.5. Thus far in 2022, two teams are over four (Tech and Central Michigan), nine are over three and 21 are over 2.5.
I'm going to follow Mina Kimes' lead and declare that we're looking at fourth downs all wrong. So many coaches and fans (and announcing crews) look at the uptick in fourth-down attempts somewhat skeptically, as if nerds and their spreadsheets and pocket protectors are having an undue and untoward impact on the way the game is being played. Nonsense! We should instead look at it as an uptick in bravery and alpha behavior. And there's probably some poetry in the fact that a team from West Texas, with its gun-slinging mascot, is leading the way in this rugged, bravado-heavy activity. Keep showing us the way, Tech. Keep playing your fearless ball.
