Energy demand in Texas could dangerously approach the state’s total electrical supply this summer, leading to a 16% chance of an electric grid emergency and a 12% chance of rolling blackouts in August, according to a new report from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas.
The report found that energy demand throughout the state of Texas could reach as high as 78,000 megawatts in August. That’s just below the state’s projected supply of nearly 83,000 megawatts for August.
However, the report details a 16% chance that operating energy reserves could drop below 2,500 megawatts, and a 12% that reserves could dip below 1,500 megawatts — which could potentially trigger rolling blackouts to prevent a statewide grid failure.
Ed Hirs, an energy fellow at the University of Houston, said he’s skeptical of the accuracy of ERCOT’s projection. He said the projection relies on the state’s energy sources operating as expected, which may not be the case as temperatures continue to rise. According to Hirs, the increasing heat could cause issues at some power plants “because their coolant systems become overwhelmed.”
“Keep in mind, ERCOT doesn’t operate these plants. ERCOT can call them into service, but does not invest, does not maintain the power plants,” Hirs said. “To a certain extent, it’s a bit like herding cats.”
Hirs believes ERCOT tends to “undershoot on their demand forecasts for the peaks.”
“I think we’ll blow past 78,000 megawatts many times this summer,” he said.
