Trump is now a clear underdog for the first that I’ve seen, although this line implies Biden only has like a 51.5% chance of winning. So the smallest of underdogs. Still, I find the recent line movement to be interesting.
I’m curious....
Removing all emotion, what say you re: what the last few months means from the perspective of gambling on or handicapping the election?
Stated differently, if I gave you Trump at even money—10$ to win 10$ odds—would you want that bet?
Are you just sprinkling half a unit on it or are you launching a 10U missile?
Would your answer change if the bet was Trump v the field (I.e., anyone but trump wins = you lose)?
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