Schoen worked on Bill Clinton's 1996 presidential and Hillary's 2000 senate campaigns. So this is someone with perspective on the issue of Clinton's and campaigns.
Hillary Clinton, Underdog
Even after Philadelphia, the momentum of the race to the White House points in Trump’s direction.
ENLARGE
PHOTO: CHAD CROWE
By
DOUGLAS E. SCHOEN
July 29, 2016 6:24 p.m. ET
10 COMMENTS
After what even critics said was a highly effective Democratic National Convention, Hillary Clinton appears to have emerged as . . . the underdog.
Conventional wisdom has long held that Mrs. Clinton will capture the White House in November, regardless of the challenges her candidacy faces. With three months to go, that calculus looks shaky. The 2016 election is trending toward Donald Trump.
Yes, the race has been fluid and will likely remain so. Mrs. Clinton might get a solid convention bounce. But even in the best-case scenario, it seems unlikely to surpass Mr. Trump’s own bounce—five to six points in some polls, which is greater than President Obama’s in 2008 or 2012. The Republican’s boost is largely the result of Mr. Trump’s successful speech in Cleveland. Fifty-seven percent of those watching had a “very positive” reaction, and 56% said that they were more likely to vote for him. You’d never know it from listening to the mainstream press, which condemned the speech as “dark.”
Right now the momentum points in one direction: Mr. Trump’s. The race is tied in the Real Clear Politics polling average, which represents a reversal in his fortunes of three to four points. Earlier this week, with the GOP convention still fresh, Mr. Trump had the clear advantage and edged ahead of Mrs. Clinton. As polls during the first days of the Democratic convention began to be factored in, a statistical tie emerged.
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It’s too soon to say whether the final two days of the Philadelphia confab will change the dynamic. But there has been clear movement to Mr. Trump in the past month. Look at the CNN/ORC poll for a four-way race, including the Libertarian Party’s Gary Johnson and the Green Party’s Jill Stein. Mr. Trump has gained seven points since mid-July and now beats Mrs. Clinton 44% to 39%, with Mr. Johnson at 9% and Ms. Stein at 3%. In a head-to-head matchup, the Republican wins 48% to 45%.
Mr. Trump’s lead is more than double that in an LA Times/USC survey released this week, which shows him winning 47% to 40%. And in the CNN/ORC poll he’s up by 18 points with independents—one reason why former New York City Mayor Michael Bloombergwas enlisted to deliver an impassioned speech Wednesday in Philadelphia.
Nate Silver’s 538 “now-cast”—meant to simulate what would happen if Election Day were today—also shows clear movement in Mr. Trump’s direction. Only a month ago, Mr. Silver gave the Republican about a 20% chance of winning. That has risen to a 47% chance. Mr. Silver still gives Mrs. Clinton better than even odds of becoming president, but that’s down significantly from a few weeks ago.
Mr. Trump is surging as well in swing states, where he is now slightly ahead, within the margin of error, or at least within striking distance. The Real Clear Politics polling average for Florida puts the GOP nominee up by 0.3 percentage points. In Ohio he is down by 0.8 points. And in Pennsylvania he trails by 4.4 points.
This is pretty astounding, considering that Clinton & Co. has spent $57 million on ads thus far—$25 million from the campaign and $32 million from super PACs. Team Trump has put up only $3.6 million in ads, all from outside groups.
Mrs. Clinton’s campaign is weighed down by other factors. Her negatives have reached their highest point yet. Recent Gallup polling shows that 38% of Americans view her favorably and 57% unfavorably. That’s her worst score since 1996, before she entered politics in her own right, and a far cry from the 69% approval she enjoyed in The Wall Street Journal/NBC poll when she left public office in 2013.
Americans still don’t trust her. This week’s CNN/ORC poll found that only 30% of voters say she is honest and trustworthy and 68% say she isn’t, her worst rating in that survey. To put these dreadful numbers in perspective, consider that even Mr. Trump is beating her. Forty-three percent of voters find him honest and trustworthy, a five-point increase since the GOP convention. This despite that PolitiFact rates his statements “false” or “pants on fire” more than 50% of the time.
It’s also unclear whether Bernie Sanders’s supporters will come out in force for Mrs. Clinton. A Bloomberg poll last month found that barely half of Sanders backers said that they would support the Democratic nominee. Eighteen percent said they would go for Mr. Johnson, the Libertarian, and 22% for Mr. Trump.
Most fundamentally, Mrs. Clinton must contend with the fact that about 70% of Americans say the country is headed in the wrong direction—traditionally a fatal indicator for a party trying to hold the White House. Bill Clinton benefited from this dynamic in 1992, when 76% of Americans felt this way, and that is what made him president. A poll this month from YouGov shows that, despite years of steady (if anemic) economic growth, 55% of Americans think the country is still in recession. Mr. Obama’s touting of his record in an otherwise terrific speech will fall on deaf ears.
Indeed, we should view the Democrats’ superficially successful convention with a more critical eye. Without question, the party made great political theater. Bill Clinton, Joe Biden, the president and Mrs. Obama all delivered powerful speeches that, as a Democrat myself, I found effective. Mrs. Clinton’s speech, a laundry list of party talking points, was workmanlike but didn’t rise to the same heights.
Yet on the substance Democrats showed themselves to be out of sync with the American mood. Except for touting the killing of Osama bin Laden five years ago, the convention included almost no mention of terrorism until the last two nights, when Democrats chanted “U.S.A.” and repeatedly asserted that the American military is the strongest in the world.
The ebullient tone doesn’t harmonize with more than 80% of voters who say, according to a Fox News poll last month, that Americans aren’t confident in the nation’s ability to prevent a terrorist attack. Democrats’ reluctance to discuss Islamic State—with the exception of Leon Panetta, who was booed—is profoundly troubling. ISIS is striking Europe regularly, and fears are mounting of more attacks at home. No surprise that voters prefer Mr. Trump to Mrs. Clinton on fighting terrorism, 50% to 46%, according to Gallup.
The Democrats did try to close this gap by bringing 25 military officers onto the stage. Mrs. Clinton, too, offered a sharp critique of Mr. Trump’s national security ideas. But she didn’t mention radical Islam. It’s an open question whether this last-minute pivot to national security will make a difference.
Democrats also failed to offer any specific plan to create jobs or promote economic growth. Mr. Obama says he’s optimistic, but few voters share that feeling. Up to two-thirds of Americans are looking for change. For many, Mr. Trump makes a powerful case. Merely calling Mrs. Clinton a “change maker,” as her husband did, isn’t going to cut it in this environment.
The Democrats seem to be coming to grips with the dangers they face, however. All the prime-time speakers in Philadelphia went negative on Mr. Trump. President Obama called him a “homegrown demagogue” and Vice President Biden added that the Republican is “clueless.” After months of denying that the New York businessman had any chance to win, Mr. Obama told the “Today” show this week that “anything is possible.”
Mr. Trump is no sure thing, but he begins the general-election campaign as a slight favorite. He’s still volatile, always one sentence away from a controversy. His joke this week that Russian hackers should help find Mrs. Clinton’s lost emails made more than a few people uneasy. His negatives are cripplingly high, at 70%, and he is on track to be outspent more than 3 to 1. He has yet to build an effective campaign organization and begins at a considerable disadvantage in the Electoral College. At this point, he’ll probably have to depend on his rhetorical skills to win the debates, and ultimately the election.
That said, few believed Mr. Trump could win the Republican nomination, and few believed he would pull ahead of his Democratic opponent in the polls. He has now done both, and he has the issues and the national mood behind him.
I have worked for both Clintons—Bill in his 1996 presidential campaign and Hillary in her 2000 Senate campaign. No one knows better than I do that they understand how to fight and will do what it takes to win. The question is whether that will be enough. Hillary Clinton—and the Democrats—are now battling uphill.
Mr. Schoen served as a political adviser and pollster for President Bill Clinton, 1994-2000.
Hillary Clinton, Underdog
Even after Philadelphia, the momentum of the race to the White House points in Trump’s direction.
PHOTO: CHAD CROWE
By
DOUGLAS E. SCHOEN
July 29, 2016 6:24 p.m. ET
10 COMMENTS
After what even critics said was a highly effective Democratic National Convention, Hillary Clinton appears to have emerged as . . . the underdog.
Conventional wisdom has long held that Mrs. Clinton will capture the White House in November, regardless of the challenges her candidacy faces. With three months to go, that calculus looks shaky. The 2016 election is trending toward Donald Trump.
Yes, the race has been fluid and will likely remain so. Mrs. Clinton might get a solid convention bounce. But even in the best-case scenario, it seems unlikely to surpass Mr. Trump’s own bounce—five to six points in some polls, which is greater than President Obama’s in 2008 or 2012. The Republican’s boost is largely the result of Mr. Trump’s successful speech in Cleveland. Fifty-seven percent of those watching had a “very positive” reaction, and 56% said that they were more likely to vote for him. You’d never know it from listening to the mainstream press, which condemned the speech as “dark.”
Right now the momentum points in one direction: Mr. Trump’s. The race is tied in the Real Clear Politics polling average, which represents a reversal in his fortunes of three to four points. Earlier this week, with the GOP convention still fresh, Mr. Trump had the clear advantage and edged ahead of Mrs. Clinton. As polls during the first days of the Democratic convention began to be factored in, a statistical tie emerged.
RELATED ARTICLES
It’s too soon to say whether the final two days of the Philadelphia confab will change the dynamic. But there has been clear movement to Mr. Trump in the past month. Look at the CNN/ORC poll for a four-way race, including the Libertarian Party’s Gary Johnson and the Green Party’s Jill Stein. Mr. Trump has gained seven points since mid-July and now beats Mrs. Clinton 44% to 39%, with Mr. Johnson at 9% and Ms. Stein at 3%. In a head-to-head matchup, the Republican wins 48% to 45%.
Mr. Trump’s lead is more than double that in an LA Times/USC survey released this week, which shows him winning 47% to 40%. And in the CNN/ORC poll he’s up by 18 points with independents—one reason why former New York City Mayor Michael Bloombergwas enlisted to deliver an impassioned speech Wednesday in Philadelphia.
Nate Silver’s 538 “now-cast”—meant to simulate what would happen if Election Day were today—also shows clear movement in Mr. Trump’s direction. Only a month ago, Mr. Silver gave the Republican about a 20% chance of winning. That has risen to a 47% chance. Mr. Silver still gives Mrs. Clinton better than even odds of becoming president, but that’s down significantly from a few weeks ago.
Mr. Trump is surging as well in swing states, where he is now slightly ahead, within the margin of error, or at least within striking distance. The Real Clear Politics polling average for Florida puts the GOP nominee up by 0.3 percentage points. In Ohio he is down by 0.8 points. And in Pennsylvania he trails by 4.4 points.
This is pretty astounding, considering that Clinton & Co. has spent $57 million on ads thus far—$25 million from the campaign and $32 million from super PACs. Team Trump has put up only $3.6 million in ads, all from outside groups.
Mrs. Clinton’s campaign is weighed down by other factors. Her negatives have reached their highest point yet. Recent Gallup polling shows that 38% of Americans view her favorably and 57% unfavorably. That’s her worst score since 1996, before she entered politics in her own right, and a far cry from the 69% approval she enjoyed in The Wall Street Journal/NBC poll when she left public office in 2013.
Americans still don’t trust her. This week’s CNN/ORC poll found that only 30% of voters say she is honest and trustworthy and 68% say she isn’t, her worst rating in that survey. To put these dreadful numbers in perspective, consider that even Mr. Trump is beating her. Forty-three percent of voters find him honest and trustworthy, a five-point increase since the GOP convention. This despite that PolitiFact rates his statements “false” or “pants on fire” more than 50% of the time.
It’s also unclear whether Bernie Sanders’s supporters will come out in force for Mrs. Clinton. A Bloomberg poll last month found that barely half of Sanders backers said that they would support the Democratic nominee. Eighteen percent said they would go for Mr. Johnson, the Libertarian, and 22% for Mr. Trump.
Most fundamentally, Mrs. Clinton must contend with the fact that about 70% of Americans say the country is headed in the wrong direction—traditionally a fatal indicator for a party trying to hold the White House. Bill Clinton benefited from this dynamic in 1992, when 76% of Americans felt this way, and that is what made him president. A poll this month from YouGov shows that, despite years of steady (if anemic) economic growth, 55% of Americans think the country is still in recession. Mr. Obama’s touting of his record in an otherwise terrific speech will fall on deaf ears.
Indeed, we should view the Democrats’ superficially successful convention with a more critical eye. Without question, the party made great political theater. Bill Clinton, Joe Biden, the president and Mrs. Obama all delivered powerful speeches that, as a Democrat myself, I found effective. Mrs. Clinton’s speech, a laundry list of party talking points, was workmanlike but didn’t rise to the same heights.
Yet on the substance Democrats showed themselves to be out of sync with the American mood. Except for touting the killing of Osama bin Laden five years ago, the convention included almost no mention of terrorism until the last two nights, when Democrats chanted “U.S.A.” and repeatedly asserted that the American military is the strongest in the world.
The ebullient tone doesn’t harmonize with more than 80% of voters who say, according to a Fox News poll last month, that Americans aren’t confident in the nation’s ability to prevent a terrorist attack. Democrats’ reluctance to discuss Islamic State—with the exception of Leon Panetta, who was booed—is profoundly troubling. ISIS is striking Europe regularly, and fears are mounting of more attacks at home. No surprise that voters prefer Mr. Trump to Mrs. Clinton on fighting terrorism, 50% to 46%, according to Gallup.
The Democrats did try to close this gap by bringing 25 military officers onto the stage. Mrs. Clinton, too, offered a sharp critique of Mr. Trump’s national security ideas. But she didn’t mention radical Islam. It’s an open question whether this last-minute pivot to national security will make a difference.
Democrats also failed to offer any specific plan to create jobs or promote economic growth. Mr. Obama says he’s optimistic, but few voters share that feeling. Up to two-thirds of Americans are looking for change. For many, Mr. Trump makes a powerful case. Merely calling Mrs. Clinton a “change maker,” as her husband did, isn’t going to cut it in this environment.
The Democrats seem to be coming to grips with the dangers they face, however. All the prime-time speakers in Philadelphia went negative on Mr. Trump. President Obama called him a “homegrown demagogue” and Vice President Biden added that the Republican is “clueless.” After months of denying that the New York businessman had any chance to win, Mr. Obama told the “Today” show this week that “anything is possible.”
Mr. Trump is no sure thing, but he begins the general-election campaign as a slight favorite. He’s still volatile, always one sentence away from a controversy. His joke this week that Russian hackers should help find Mrs. Clinton’s lost emails made more than a few people uneasy. His negatives are cripplingly high, at 70%, and he is on track to be outspent more than 3 to 1. He has yet to build an effective campaign organization and begins at a considerable disadvantage in the Electoral College. At this point, he’ll probably have to depend on his rhetorical skills to win the debates, and ultimately the election.
That said, few believed Mr. Trump could win the Republican nomination, and few believed he would pull ahead of his Democratic opponent in the polls. He has now done both, and he has the issues and the national mood behind him.
I have worked for both Clintons—Bill in his 1996 presidential campaign and Hillary in her 2000 Senate campaign. No one knows better than I do that they understand how to fight and will do what it takes to win. The question is whether that will be enough. Hillary Clinton—and the Democrats—are now battling uphill.
Mr. Schoen served as a political adviser and pollster for President Bill Clinton, 1994-2000.
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