Here’s one for the left wing loons here to ponder. Yeah, like I thought that would ever happen. They’ll steer clear of this one because it involves something they have absolutely no aptitude for, math.
Byron York: Trump-Russia, by the (misleading) numbers
by Byron York
| March 24, 2018 11:52 PM
Lately Democrats have accused Republicans on the House Intelligence Committee of prematurely shutting down the Trump-Russia investigation without interviewing many key witnesses. The committee "obtained either no or incomplete information about 81 percent of the known contacts between Trump officials and Russians, or groups and individuals with strong Russia ties like WikiLeaks," NBC reported Thursday.
"The House Intelligence Committee shuttered its investigation today, concluding they had found no evidence of collusion," NBC's Heidi Przbyla said on "Hardball." "We'll have a new report … showing they overlooked 81 percent of the known contacts between Trump officials and the Russians."
"Nunes — don't know nothing," said host Chris Matthews, referring to the committee's Republican chairman, Rep. Devin Nunes.
Elon Musk's Mission to Put WiFi on the Moon! 3 Things To Know Today.
Watch Full Screen to Skip Ads
NBC relied on a study by something called the Moscow Project, which is part of the lefty think tank Center for American Progress. On Thursday, the Project claimedthere were "at least 70 known contacts between Trump's team and Russia-linked operatives during the campaign and transition," and that "in 81 percent of these cases, the House Intel committee obtained either no or partial information from the relevant Trump representative."
Is that true? Did the House Intelligence Committee really fail to interview the vast majority of those people? The answer is no, it's not true. Here is the actual story:
The Moscow Project listed the following Trump associates who "had contacts with Russians during the campaign or transition": Michael Cohen, Donald Trump Jr., Paul Manafort, Jared Kushner, Michael Flynn, George Papadopoulos, Roger Stone, Jeff Sessions, J.D. Gordon, Carter Page, Erik Prince, and Anthony Scaramucci.
According to the House Intelligence Committee and public reports, committee investigators, which could include members as well as staff and always included Democrats, interviewed Cohen, Trump Jr., Kushner, Stone, Sessions, Gordon, Page, and Prince.
Again, Democrats participated in the interviews and had a chance to question each witness.
Of the Trump figures the committee did not interview: Manafort was invited to testify and agreed, Republicans say, but his appearance was delayed at Democrats' request — and then Manafort was indicted and became off limits because of the investigation being conducted by special counsel Robert Mueller. Flynn was subpoenaed, and then became off limits because of Mueller. Papadopoulos was invited to testify, and then he, too, became off limits because of Mueller.
Together, that is 11 of the 12 people the Moscow Project listed as having "contacts with Russians" during the campaign or transition. (A word later on the 12th person, Anthony Scaramucci.)
The Project also listed other Trump associates who "were reportedly aware of contacts with Russia-linked operatives": Corey Lewandowski, Rick Gates, Hope Hicks, Sam Clovis, Stephen Miller, K.T. McFarland, Tom Bossert, Reince Priebus, Stephen Bannon, and Sean Spicer.
It turns out the committee interviewed Lewandowski, Hicks, Clovis, and Bannon. As for Gates, the committee invited him to testify, but, like Manafort and others, he was indicted and became off limits because of the special counsel investigation.
That leaves Scaramucci, from the first group, plus Miller, McFarland, Priebus, Bossert, and Spicer. Here is what a committee spokesman said about them: "We don't have any reason to believe these individuals have any unique knowledge pertinent to our investigation. Their inclusion on this list is a frivolous attempt to embarrass these people and insinuate that they are somehow involved in the Great Collusion Conspiracy. Read the actual allegations published by The Moscow Project -- they're transparently ridiculous, classic McCarthyist guilt-by-insinuation and innuendo."
You can make your own judgment about the "McCarthyist guilt" part. But just on the numbers themselves: The Moscow Project listed 22 Trump-related figures it says should have been questioned. The committee interviewed 12 of them. The committee tried to interview four others but was frustrated by the requirements of the special counsel. That makes 16. And then there were six others, none key figures in the Trump-Russia affair, that the parties disagreed on.
Which means, to adopt the Moscow Project's numerical approach, the committee either interviewed or tried to interview 73 percent of the people on the Moscow Project list, and the parties disagreed on whether to interview 27 percent of the people on the list.
That's a long way from the Moscow Project's claim. But viewed another way, the Project's numbers look even worse.
The Project didn't claim that House Intel ignored 81 percent of the people in the Trump-Russia case. It said the committee didn't interview the Trump person involved in 81 percent of the contacts with Russians. Here is what the Project said specifically:
There were at least 70 known contacts between Trump's team and Russia-linked operatives during the campaign, including 22 meetings. In 81 percent of these cases, the House Intel committee obtained either no or partial information from the relevant Trump representative.
So the key measurement, according to the Moscow Project, is contacts. But take a closer look and it appears the Moscow Project did everything it could to pump up the number of contacts between Trump figures and Russians.
For example, the Project report -- amplified by NBC and others -- noted that on April 10, 2016, Papadopoulos emailed a person known as the Female Russian National. On April 11, the Female Russian National emailed Papadopoulos back. Papadopoulos replied on the same day. And, still on April 11, the Female Russian National replied to Papadopoulos.
The Moscow Project counts that exchange as four contacts, which seems like an effort to inflate the numbers.
But even assume there were 70 legitimate contacts between Trump figures and Russians. As it turns out, 30 of the 70 contacts listed by the Project involved Trump people who were interviewed by the committee, while 39 others involved Trump people the committee tried to interview but could not, due to the Mueller investigation.
Put them all together, and that's 69 of the 70 contacts -- in other words, all but one of the contacts cited by the Moscow Project involved Trump people who were either interviewed by the House Intelligence Committee or people the committee made an effort to interview but could not because of the special counsel probe. (The last one -- the only contact not in one of those two categories -- was Scaramucci's conversation with a Russian in Davos shortly before the Trump inauguration.)
The bottom line is, the House committee made an effort to interview the key figures in the Trump-Russia affair, and succeeded most of the time. When the Moscow Project, and NBC, and other news organizations, say the committee failed to explore 81 percent of the "known contacts" between Trump figures and Russians -- do not believe it.
Byron York: Trump-Russia, by the (misleading) numbers
by Byron York
| March 24, 2018 11:52 PM
Lately Democrats have accused Republicans on the House Intelligence Committee of prematurely shutting down the Trump-Russia investigation without interviewing many key witnesses. The committee "obtained either no or incomplete information about 81 percent of the known contacts between Trump officials and Russians, or groups and individuals with strong Russia ties like WikiLeaks," NBC reported Thursday.
"The House Intelligence Committee shuttered its investigation today, concluding they had found no evidence of collusion," NBC's Heidi Przbyla said on "Hardball." "We'll have a new report … showing they overlooked 81 percent of the known contacts between Trump officials and the Russians."
"Nunes — don't know nothing," said host Chris Matthews, referring to the committee's Republican chairman, Rep. Devin Nunes.
Elon Musk's Mission to Put WiFi on the Moon! 3 Things To Know Today.
Watch Full Screen to Skip Ads
NBC relied on a study by something called the Moscow Project, which is part of the lefty think tank Center for American Progress. On Thursday, the Project claimedthere were "at least 70 known contacts between Trump's team and Russia-linked operatives during the campaign and transition," and that "in 81 percent of these cases, the House Intel committee obtained either no or partial information from the relevant Trump representative."
Is that true? Did the House Intelligence Committee really fail to interview the vast majority of those people? The answer is no, it's not true. Here is the actual story:
The Moscow Project listed the following Trump associates who "had contacts with Russians during the campaign or transition": Michael Cohen, Donald Trump Jr., Paul Manafort, Jared Kushner, Michael Flynn, George Papadopoulos, Roger Stone, Jeff Sessions, J.D. Gordon, Carter Page, Erik Prince, and Anthony Scaramucci.
According to the House Intelligence Committee and public reports, committee investigators, which could include members as well as staff and always included Democrats, interviewed Cohen, Trump Jr., Kushner, Stone, Sessions, Gordon, Page, and Prince.
Again, Democrats participated in the interviews and had a chance to question each witness.
Of the Trump figures the committee did not interview: Manafort was invited to testify and agreed, Republicans say, but his appearance was delayed at Democrats' request — and then Manafort was indicted and became off limits because of the investigation being conducted by special counsel Robert Mueller. Flynn was subpoenaed, and then became off limits because of Mueller. Papadopoulos was invited to testify, and then he, too, became off limits because of Mueller.
Together, that is 11 of the 12 people the Moscow Project listed as having "contacts with Russians" during the campaign or transition. (A word later on the 12th person, Anthony Scaramucci.)
The Project also listed other Trump associates who "were reportedly aware of contacts with Russia-linked operatives": Corey Lewandowski, Rick Gates, Hope Hicks, Sam Clovis, Stephen Miller, K.T. McFarland, Tom Bossert, Reince Priebus, Stephen Bannon, and Sean Spicer.
It turns out the committee interviewed Lewandowski, Hicks, Clovis, and Bannon. As for Gates, the committee invited him to testify, but, like Manafort and others, he was indicted and became off limits because of the special counsel investigation.
That leaves Scaramucci, from the first group, plus Miller, McFarland, Priebus, Bossert, and Spicer. Here is what a committee spokesman said about them: "We don't have any reason to believe these individuals have any unique knowledge pertinent to our investigation. Their inclusion on this list is a frivolous attempt to embarrass these people and insinuate that they are somehow involved in the Great Collusion Conspiracy. Read the actual allegations published by The Moscow Project -- they're transparently ridiculous, classic McCarthyist guilt-by-insinuation and innuendo."
You can make your own judgment about the "McCarthyist guilt" part. But just on the numbers themselves: The Moscow Project listed 22 Trump-related figures it says should have been questioned. The committee interviewed 12 of them. The committee tried to interview four others but was frustrated by the requirements of the special counsel. That makes 16. And then there were six others, none key figures in the Trump-Russia affair, that the parties disagreed on.
Which means, to adopt the Moscow Project's numerical approach, the committee either interviewed or tried to interview 73 percent of the people on the Moscow Project list, and the parties disagreed on whether to interview 27 percent of the people on the list.
That's a long way from the Moscow Project's claim. But viewed another way, the Project's numbers look even worse.
The Project didn't claim that House Intel ignored 81 percent of the people in the Trump-Russia case. It said the committee didn't interview the Trump person involved in 81 percent of the contacts with Russians. Here is what the Project said specifically:
There were at least 70 known contacts between Trump's team and Russia-linked operatives during the campaign, including 22 meetings. In 81 percent of these cases, the House Intel committee obtained either no or partial information from the relevant Trump representative.
So the key measurement, according to the Moscow Project, is contacts. But take a closer look and it appears the Moscow Project did everything it could to pump up the number of contacts between Trump figures and Russians.
For example, the Project report -- amplified by NBC and others -- noted that on April 10, 2016, Papadopoulos emailed a person known as the Female Russian National. On April 11, the Female Russian National emailed Papadopoulos back. Papadopoulos replied on the same day. And, still on April 11, the Female Russian National replied to Papadopoulos.
The Moscow Project counts that exchange as four contacts, which seems like an effort to inflate the numbers.
But even assume there were 70 legitimate contacts between Trump figures and Russians. As it turns out, 30 of the 70 contacts listed by the Project involved Trump people who were interviewed by the committee, while 39 others involved Trump people the committee tried to interview but could not, due to the Mueller investigation.
Put them all together, and that's 69 of the 70 contacts -- in other words, all but one of the contacts cited by the Moscow Project involved Trump people who were either interviewed by the House Intelligence Committee or people the committee made an effort to interview but could not because of the special counsel probe. (The last one -- the only contact not in one of those two categories -- was Scaramucci's conversation with a Russian in Davos shortly before the Trump inauguration.)
The bottom line is, the House committee made an effort to interview the key figures in the Trump-Russia affair, and succeeded most of the time. When the Moscow Project, and NBC, and other news organizations, say the committee failed to explore 81 percent of the "known contacts" between Trump figures and Russians -- do not believe it.
