Trimming this down to just the Big 12 talk.
Locks: Baylor, Kansas, Texas Tech
Should be in: Texas, Iowa State
Work to do: TCU, Oklahoma, Kansas State, West Virginia
Texas (18-6, 7-4; NET: 15, SOS: 38): Bill Self nearly collapsed to the floor. You could have forgiven him for going for it, for lying prone right there in the middle of the Erwin Center. His team had hung tough on the road all night, and had now, finally, built a four-point lead with one minute remaining — and, better yet, had seen Texas center Tre Mitchell try a second 3-point attempt in quick succession, just 44 seconds after his first banged angrily off the backboard, and you could practically see Self doing the immediate mental math, could see his satisfaction that Texas had just taken that shot in that situation and — oh. It went in? It banked in?! Oh, COME ON. That was the biggest shot of the night, an ugly bank that even Mitchell laughed about, but give Texas credit for the other 39 minutes and 50 seconds — the Longhorns were tough, too, physical and defiant defensively. It’s been a solid defensive team for a while now. They don’t always look fluid offensively, to put it mildly. But when they’re dug in, they’re tough. Huge win.
Iowa State (16-7, 3-7; NET: 31, SOS: 14): Iowa State should tread lightly down the stretch. The Cyclones have been a joyous surprise this season, but since the 12-0 start that established them as one of the nation’s best defensive teams and an insurgent force in the top half of the Big 12, Iowa State has won three games out of 10. Saturday’s offensive implosion at Texas was a horrific watch, but it was also somewhat indicative of what can happen when the 136th-ranked offense has an off night. Through 10 games, Iowa State is actually getting outscored per possession by its league competition: it averages .92 points per possession and allows 1.01. You can do the math yourself. This team has plenty of resume equity built up, so we’re not in crisis mode just yet, but the underlying numbers are slightly worrying.
TCU (15-5, 4-4; NET: 55, SOS: 54): Despite having so-so NET and schedule numbers, a terrible nonconference schedule, and hovering almost entirely under the radar all season, TCU would be in the tournament if it were selected and seeded today. Go figure. The Horned Frogs are 4-3 against Quadrant 1 and 2-2 against Quadrant 2, with no bad losses and many more quality opportunities still on the schedule — six of their final nine games will register as Quadrant 1 foes. (The rest are in Q2. Life in the Big 12 is good.) TCU has to win some of those games, obviously, and easier said than done, that. This resume feels a little hollow. But it’s looking at least somewhat likely that TCU eventually pulls this off.
Oklahoma (13-10, 3-7; NET: 46, SOS: 17): The downsides of having a really good league filled bursting with teams that can beat anyone on any given night is: What happens when you’re merely decent? Such is life for Oklahoma, which has been good enough to occasionally knock off quality teams and, like, hang tough with Kansas, but which hasn’t been good enough to not lose a bunch of games in the buzzsaw that is league play. Throw in last week’s losses to TCU (home) and at Oklahoma State and you have a full-on slide in progress. If this keeps up, you can see how the Sooners might end up missing the tournament. Oklahoma gets Texas Tech at home this week; it could really use a win to alter this trajectory.
Kansas State (12-10, 4-6; NET: 62, SOS: 11): Is it time to reconsider Kansas State? The Wildcats haven’t exactly taken the world by storm lately, but their past week — holding on against Oklahoma State and winning by 12 at TCU — did cause us to take notice, and you know what? This resume is good enough to be on the page. The Texas/Texas Tech back-to-back wins in mid-January were huge in this regard, and this wouldn’t have taken so long had K-State not given up a huge second-half lead to Kansas on Jan. 22. But with four Quadrant 1 wins and no bad losses (at Ole Miss doesn’t count), this is at least a workable team sheet that has a chance to get suddenly and dramatically better Wednesday night when a slightly limping Baylor comes to Manhattan.
West Virginia (13-9, 2-7; NET: 63, SOS: 8): We do feel a bit bad for West Virginia; Taz Sherman’s concussion not only robbed WVU of its best scorer down the stretch last Monday against Baylor, in a game it led until the very end, his absence also made the Mountaineers’ offense functionally powerless against Texas Tech Saturday afternoon. It was West Virginia’s seventh loss in a row. The Mountaineers aren’t playing that bad, but this losing streak, even against a really tough schedule (this team still has just one non-Q1 loss, to Oklahoma), has hurt their chances badly.
https://theathletic.com/3116044/202...no-no-no-ok-we-need-to-talk-about-the-tigers/
Big 12
We’ve cataloged in almost tedious detail the many reasons why we like this Texas Tech team so much, particularly after the double-overtime performance at Allen Fieldhouse or last week’s hate-fueled fiesta against Texas. But even Saturday’s win at West Virginia was an excellent example of why this team is so reliable, so sturdy. The Red Raiders’ defense is so good, and so repeatable — it is often executed by five players standing between 6-foot-5 and 6-foot-8 who would be a horrible defensive matchup even if they weren’t running Mark Adams’ well-drilled stuff — that they can have 4-of-21-from-3-type offensive nights like they did in Morgantown, against a starving team in desperate need of a win, and not really be troubled en route to a true road win. They take teams’ souls on that side of the ball. It’s incredible to watch, and it’s made Texas Tech a lock.Locks: Baylor, Kansas, Texas Tech
Should be in: Texas, Iowa State
Work to do: TCU, Oklahoma, Kansas State, West Virginia
Texas (18-6, 7-4; NET: 15, SOS: 38): Bill Self nearly collapsed to the floor. You could have forgiven him for going for it, for lying prone right there in the middle of the Erwin Center. His team had hung tough on the road all night, and had now, finally, built a four-point lead with one minute remaining — and, better yet, had seen Texas center Tre Mitchell try a second 3-point attempt in quick succession, just 44 seconds after his first banged angrily off the backboard, and you could practically see Self doing the immediate mental math, could see his satisfaction that Texas had just taken that shot in that situation and — oh. It went in? It banked in?! Oh, COME ON. That was the biggest shot of the night, an ugly bank that even Mitchell laughed about, but give Texas credit for the other 39 minutes and 50 seconds — the Longhorns were tough, too, physical and defiant defensively. It’s been a solid defensive team for a while now. They don’t always look fluid offensively, to put it mildly. But when they’re dug in, they’re tough. Huge win.
Iowa State (16-7, 3-7; NET: 31, SOS: 14): Iowa State should tread lightly down the stretch. The Cyclones have been a joyous surprise this season, but since the 12-0 start that established them as one of the nation’s best defensive teams and an insurgent force in the top half of the Big 12, Iowa State has won three games out of 10. Saturday’s offensive implosion at Texas was a horrific watch, but it was also somewhat indicative of what can happen when the 136th-ranked offense has an off night. Through 10 games, Iowa State is actually getting outscored per possession by its league competition: it averages .92 points per possession and allows 1.01. You can do the math yourself. This team has plenty of resume equity built up, so we’re not in crisis mode just yet, but the underlying numbers are slightly worrying.
TCU (15-5, 4-4; NET: 55, SOS: 54): Despite having so-so NET and schedule numbers, a terrible nonconference schedule, and hovering almost entirely under the radar all season, TCU would be in the tournament if it were selected and seeded today. Go figure. The Horned Frogs are 4-3 against Quadrant 1 and 2-2 against Quadrant 2, with no bad losses and many more quality opportunities still on the schedule — six of their final nine games will register as Quadrant 1 foes. (The rest are in Q2. Life in the Big 12 is good.) TCU has to win some of those games, obviously, and easier said than done, that. This resume feels a little hollow. But it’s looking at least somewhat likely that TCU eventually pulls this off.
Oklahoma (13-10, 3-7; NET: 46, SOS: 17): The downsides of having a really good league filled bursting with teams that can beat anyone on any given night is: What happens when you’re merely decent? Such is life for Oklahoma, which has been good enough to occasionally knock off quality teams and, like, hang tough with Kansas, but which hasn’t been good enough to not lose a bunch of games in the buzzsaw that is league play. Throw in last week’s losses to TCU (home) and at Oklahoma State and you have a full-on slide in progress. If this keeps up, you can see how the Sooners might end up missing the tournament. Oklahoma gets Texas Tech at home this week; it could really use a win to alter this trajectory.
Kansas State (12-10, 4-6; NET: 62, SOS: 11): Is it time to reconsider Kansas State? The Wildcats haven’t exactly taken the world by storm lately, but their past week — holding on against Oklahoma State and winning by 12 at TCU — did cause us to take notice, and you know what? This resume is good enough to be on the page. The Texas/Texas Tech back-to-back wins in mid-January were huge in this regard, and this wouldn’t have taken so long had K-State not given up a huge second-half lead to Kansas on Jan. 22. But with four Quadrant 1 wins and no bad losses (at Ole Miss doesn’t count), this is at least a workable team sheet that has a chance to get suddenly and dramatically better Wednesday night when a slightly limping Baylor comes to Manhattan.
West Virginia (13-9, 2-7; NET: 63, SOS: 8): We do feel a bit bad for West Virginia; Taz Sherman’s concussion not only robbed WVU of its best scorer down the stretch last Monday against Baylor, in a game it led until the very end, his absence also made the Mountaineers’ offense functionally powerless against Texas Tech Saturday afternoon. It was West Virginia’s seventh loss in a row. The Mountaineers aren’t playing that bad, but this losing streak, even against a really tough schedule (this team still has just one non-Q1 loss, to Oklahoma), has hurt their chances badly.
https://theathletic.com/3116044/202...no-no-no-ok-we-need-to-talk-about-the-tigers/
