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Blue State Tax Revolt

Rich Buller

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Blue State Tax Revolt
Lessons from a rare rollback.


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PHOTO: JEFF CHIU/ASSOCIATED PRESS
By
James Freeman
Nov. 15, 2017 3:21 p.m. ET
781 COMMENTS


With the progress of federal tax reform legislation, Congress and the White House are giving Americans every reason to be optimistic about our economic future. But for those Americans who live in places like New Jersey and New York, it’s getting harder to be bullish about their neighborhoods. The Tax Foundation recently ranked New York 49th out of 50 states in tax competitiveness, just ahead of dead-last New Jersey. Naturally, this month voters across the Garden State and in New York City selected leaders promising to make the tax burden even heavier. But there is one blue state where if you look very closely you can discern what might be the beginning of reform.

Across high-tax jurisdictions, productive citizens aren’t necessarily waiting for the turnaround. This week a Journal editorial chronicledthe stampede of residents headed to more favorable tax climes with faster-growing economies. Among the biggest blue-state losers was Illinois, which had to say goodbye to residents generating at least $3 billion in adjusted gross income in each of the years from 2012 to 2015.

Are politicians finally getting the message? Let’s not overstate the possibilities. But Illinois is now home to some local pols who, pressed by angry residents, are contemplating a few precious baby steps toward less expensive government. The editorial board of theChicago Tribune explains how Cook County of all places—home to Chicago and a legion of public employees—became ground zero for a recent tax revolt:

For several years now, Illinois governments have been on a taxing tear. Income tax. Sales taxes. Property taxes. Taxes on warm summer winds. (OK, maybe not the last one — yet.)

The tax that went too far, that stirred a rebellion, came from Cook County, a government we’ve long criticized for its budget bloat and antiquated ways. The repeal, effective at month’s end, of the unlamented sweetened beverage tax has grabbed headlines. The credit goes to untold thousands of citizens who said, loudly and repeatedly: Too much taxation.
We expect to hear a lot more of that in the 2018 election cycle. State lawmakers who overrode a governor’s veto to raise the personal income tax rate by 32 percent have to expect some measure of blowback at polling places from Zion to Cairo.​
Here’s hoping that the spirit of ‘17 prevails when Illinois voters go to the polls next year. For the moment, the Tribune is documenting more uncharacteristic blue-state behavior. One might have expected the death of the soda tax to inspire local pols to consider new ways to soak the middle class as well as the hated top 1%—and this should never be ruled out in Chicago. But the Trib says that Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle is now pursuing a different approach:

Preckwinkle proposes a slew of cuts and other economies, including seven unpaid days off for some union employees and 15 furlough days for nonunion workers. We hope that all union employees volunteer for furlough days. If they do, the county may not have to cut as many jobs.
The proposal also would eliminate hundreds of currently vacant positions, while leaving hundreds more still unfilled.
And there would be layoffs of midlevel managers and other staffers... You ever get the feeling that the amount of work accomplished declines in direct ratio to the rising number of middle managers supervising it? So do we.​
A county board vote expected next Tuesday could determine whether spending cuts actually occur, but the direction here is positive. How often do officials in one of the country’s largest metropolitan areas even consider the idea that cutting spending might be the answer—to anything?

And of course when one takes a national view it’s even easier to be encouraged about the possibilities. Jim Lucier of research firm Capital Alpha Partners tells clients today that the odds of Washington enacting a tax reform with a big corporate rate cut have now risen to 80%. Is he being too pessimistic?
 
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