Finally, the Big 12 XC meet is here. This XC season has seemed to go by slowly for me - maybe because Tech only ran every other weekend, for the better part of the season. The Tech women are looking almost as strong as last year. The Tech men seem to be getting better at just the right time. Here are my predictions:
NOTE: The national rankings are the ones from last week. A new poll will come out before the conference meet, but I did not want to wait on the new poll. There should be TOO much change in the rankings anyway.
WOMEN
The meet should come down to Tech(ranked 14th in the nation) and Colorado (ranked 3rd). Iowa State (19th) and Baylor (26th) should also figure into the race as well, although Baylor is not as good as I thought they were before the season began. I truly believe that Tech will win the meet. Colorado has been ranked higher than Tech all year, partially based on pre-season hype, but also based on them winning the Pre-Nationals Blue race, the same weekend that Tech handily won the Chile Pepper. Tech is running better and better each week.
Now, if the meet were being held at high altitude (Boulder, CO) I would give the edge to the Buffaloes, but it will be run in Columbia, MO - altitude 705 feet. This will actually favor both Colorado and Tech over the kids who train at much lower altitude.
The nine women who will run at the meet appear to me to be set in stone, since these women have been the top 9 in every meet for Tech: Lillian Badaru (a strong contender to win the overall race), Purity Biwott, Caroline Karunde, Gladys Kipsang, Winrose Karunde, Michelle Guzman, Kaci Westervelt, Katherine Priebe and Meagan Willingham. I predict that Tech places their top 6 runners in the top 20 and they win the conference meet over Colorado (and in the process jump into the top 10 in the nation.)
MEN
The men look quite a bit stronger than 2008, when they finished 9th at conference. Both of the men who redshirted in 2008 (Silas Kemboi and Zach Quinones) are running well and contributing each week. Two of their returnees are performing well below 2008 standards - Nathan Milles (has been sick much of the semester, but running much better of late) and Zach Dawson (who simply seems to have reported in dreadful shape).
At the top of the Big 12 are two teams that are simply out of Tech's league, Colorado (ranked #4 nationally) and Oklahoma State (ranked 3).OU and Iowa State are also nationally ranked - 20th and 23rd respectively. However, after those 4 teams, the next 6 teams are rather even in talent. TAMU (ranked #2 in the South Central region) and UT (ranked #3 in the South Central) are both ranked highly in their region, but the South Central region is probably the weakest region in the country this year. I wish Tech was in that region, rather than the Mountain Region. The Tech men are ranked 12th in the MOuntain Region, but would be ranked as high as 4th if they were in the South Central region with TAMU and UT.
If Tech runs its race, the Red Raiders could finish as high as 5th place, but my gut tells me that they run well, but not quite that good, finishing 7th at the conference meet.
The 9 men are nowhere as obvious as the women's team. The top 5 for the Red Raiders have remained the same all year - Gilbert Limo (who will contend for a top 15 spot at conference), Cory Higgins, Silas Kemboi, Zach Quinones, and Logan Culotta - with a little minor jockeying for position within the top 5. However, the other 4 runners will be picked from a group of 5 runners - Nathan Milles, David Boston (who did not run at the Chile Pepper, but ran well earlier in the season), Jeremy Kight, Zach Dawson and freshman Valentino Julien, with Chase Wade a longshot addition. Not knowing the current health of any of the runners or how workouts have gone for the 1.5 weeks since the Chile Pepper, I just don't know which of the 4 will get to make the trip to Columbia.
NOTE: The national rankings are the ones from last week. A new poll will come out before the conference meet, but I did not want to wait on the new poll. There should be TOO much change in the rankings anyway.
WOMEN
The meet should come down to Tech(ranked 14th in the nation) and Colorado (ranked 3rd). Iowa State (19th) and Baylor (26th) should also figure into the race as well, although Baylor is not as good as I thought they were before the season began. I truly believe that Tech will win the meet. Colorado has been ranked higher than Tech all year, partially based on pre-season hype, but also based on them winning the Pre-Nationals Blue race, the same weekend that Tech handily won the Chile Pepper. Tech is running better and better each week.
Now, if the meet were being held at high altitude (Boulder, CO) I would give the edge to the Buffaloes, but it will be run in Columbia, MO - altitude 705 feet. This will actually favor both Colorado and Tech over the kids who train at much lower altitude.
The nine women who will run at the meet appear to me to be set in stone, since these women have been the top 9 in every meet for Tech: Lillian Badaru (a strong contender to win the overall race), Purity Biwott, Caroline Karunde, Gladys Kipsang, Winrose Karunde, Michelle Guzman, Kaci Westervelt, Katherine Priebe and Meagan Willingham. I predict that Tech places their top 6 runners in the top 20 and they win the conference meet over Colorado (and in the process jump into the top 10 in the nation.)
MEN
The men look quite a bit stronger than 2008, when they finished 9th at conference. Both of the men who redshirted in 2008 (Silas Kemboi and Zach Quinones) are running well and contributing each week. Two of their returnees are performing well below 2008 standards - Nathan Milles (has been sick much of the semester, but running much better of late) and Zach Dawson (who simply seems to have reported in dreadful shape).
At the top of the Big 12 are two teams that are simply out of Tech's league, Colorado (ranked #4 nationally) and Oklahoma State (ranked 3).OU and Iowa State are also nationally ranked - 20th and 23rd respectively. However, after those 4 teams, the next 6 teams are rather even in talent. TAMU (ranked #2 in the South Central region) and UT (ranked #3 in the South Central) are both ranked highly in their region, but the South Central region is probably the weakest region in the country this year. I wish Tech was in that region, rather than the Mountain Region. The Tech men are ranked 12th in the MOuntain Region, but would be ranked as high as 4th if they were in the South Central region with TAMU and UT.
If Tech runs its race, the Red Raiders could finish as high as 5th place, but my gut tells me that they run well, but not quite that good, finishing 7th at the conference meet.
The 9 men are nowhere as obvious as the women's team. The top 5 for the Red Raiders have remained the same all year - Gilbert Limo (who will contend for a top 15 spot at conference), Cory Higgins, Silas Kemboi, Zach Quinones, and Logan Culotta - with a little minor jockeying for position within the top 5. However, the other 4 runners will be picked from a group of 5 runners - Nathan Milles, David Boston (who did not run at the Chile Pepper, but ran well earlier in the season), Jeremy Kight, Zach Dawson and freshman Valentino Julien, with Chase Wade a longshot addition. Not knowing the current health of any of the runners or how workouts have gone for the 1.5 weeks since the Chile Pepper, I just don't know which of the 4 will get to make the trip to Columbia.
