As @Sandstorm43 called me out in another thread, my Tech -1.8 so load up on WVU was way off. It feels good to lose that one (even though I’m close to 70% for the year all in.
I went back and looked and this is all because of Behren Morton. The kid can move the offense.
Before BM, our offense had an EPA of .203 and in the two games with him an EPA of .289. If I had just counted the OSU game, I would have loaded up in Tech but you can’t use a one game sample. This is where I need to tweak my EMA for college.
So for Baylor, if we take into account the BM effect and if they’re QB is healthy, I have us as -2.8 favorites so I’m probably staying away unless the line moves hits my 1 point differential.
For shits and giggles, if you start maybe DS, i have us as 4 point underdogs…
I went back and looked and this is all because of Behren Morton. The kid can move the offense.
Before BM, our offense had an EPA of .203 and in the two games with him an EPA of .289. If I had just counted the OSU game, I would have loaded up in Tech but you can’t use a one game sample. This is where I need to tweak my EMA for college.
So for Baylor, if we take into account the BM effect and if they’re QB is healthy, I have us as -2.8 favorites so I’m probably staying away unless the line moves hits my 1 point differential.
For shits and giggles, if you start maybe DS, i have us as 4 point underdogs…
